저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 마이클 버리의 Signet Jewelers(SIG) 보유를 계기로 기업을 6가지 지표와 DCF로 분석하며, 명시적 매수·매도 추천은 하지 않는다. 버리 보유 및 주가 배경 - 버리가 2023년 1분기 SIG를 매수, 13F상 세 번째로 큰 보유 종목(미국 상장 보유분의 약 9%)이다. - 13F 공시 이후 주가는 약 11% 하락한 상태이며, 현재 주가는 약 69.52달러로 연초 저점에서 반등한 상태다. - 시가총액 약 30억 달러, 배당수익률 약 1.2%, 공매도 비중 약 12%다. 6가지 지표 분석 - 지표1(5년 평균 ROIC 14% 이상): 최근 5년 평균 약 12.9%로 평균 기업(약 7%)보다 높지만 기준(14%)에는 약간 못 미쳐 X다. - 지표2(매출·순이익·FCF 성장): 매출 25%, FCF 17% 성장, 2019년 손상차손으로 적자였으나 최근 흑자로 전환되어 체크다. - 지표3(주당순이익 성장): 희석 3.5% 대비 이익 성장이 훨씬 커서 체크다. - 지표4(주당 FCF 성장): 희석을 상회하는 FCF 성장으로 체크다. - 지표5(순부채 < 5년 누적 FCF): 순부채 약 1.63억 달러 대비 5년 누적 FCF 약 40억 달러로 강한 체크다. - 보너스(배당): 2021년 배당 삭감 후 재개, 5년간 FCF로 배당을 충분히 커버해 체크다. - 지표6(평균 FCF/EV 5% 이상): 평균 기준 약 20.5%, 최근 연도 기준 약 17%로 매우 높아 체크다. DCF 평가 - 향후 10년 FCF 7.5% 성장, 이후 성장률 절반, 15% 할인율, 유형자산가치 반영 가정 시 적정 주당가치 약 73.5달러다. - 현재가 대비 약 4달러 상승 여지가 있다는 결과다. - 다만 경기순환 기업이라 예측 가능성이 낮고, 가정에 따라 결과가 크게 달라진다. 정성적 요인 - 긍정: 파편화된 업계에서 점유율 확대 여지, Zales 인수 후 마진 개선 가능성, 광고 투자 여력. - 부정: IT 시스템 노후화, 자체 신용 의존(매출의 약 37%)과 채권 회수율 하락, 대손 상각이 업계 평균보다 높음, 과거 부정적 이슈로 인한 평판 리스크. 종합 및 유의사항 - 종합적으로 추가 리서치 후보로 강하다고 평가하며, 버리의 매수 시점 대비 비슷하거나 낮은 가격에 검토 가능하다고 본다. - 영상은 투자 자문이 아니며 매수·매도 추천이 아니라고 명시한다.
다듬은 글
Michael Murray bought a steak in Signet Jewelers in the first quarter of 2023 with this purchase Signet Jewelers is the third largest position that shows up on his 13f filing these include all his U.S listed stock Holdings and since buries 13f was released Cigna Jewelers stock price is down 11 you may have the opportunity to look at this business for cheaper than Michael burry did Cigna Jeweler stock ticker isg trades for 69.52 they've had a recent run up in their stock price rebounding from their year-to-date lows year-to-date Cigna Jewelers is up five percent in the last three years this company's rebounded extremely well they're up nearly seven times in the last 10 years we see this business has been cyclical its stock price is down seven percent overall going back prior to the global financial crisis in the last 18 years Signet Jeweler stock price is up 51 overall the company's stock price has been cyclical over this time falling to extreme lows in both 2009 and 2020 hitting their all-time highs in between them Signet Jewelers trades between their 52-week low and high a little closer to their High interestingly 12 percent of the company's Shares are sold short the company is a three billion dollar market cap they also pay a 1.2 percent dividend yield their dividend yield is added on to the returns from their stock but the burning question is why does Michael burry like Signet Jewelers Cigna Jewelers is a diamond retailer its merchandise mix includes Bridal Fashion watches and and others the bridal category includes engagement wedding and anniversary purchases its segments are North America international and other it gets the majority of its revenue from North America we'll be covering the business using our select 6 analysis before looking at two different ways to Value Signet Jewelers then we'll give a final rating to the business starting things off with metric number one we want their average return on Capital in the last five years to be above 14 there are two key reasons for this over the long run over the course of decades a Stock's likely to return what its underlying business returns these business returns are captured here by return on Capital the average publicly listed business earns about a seven percent return on Capital looking for a benchmark that's double this allows us to build in margin of safety Cigna Jewelers had pretty low Returns on Capital that were declining into their fiscal 21.
since then the company's returns have skyrocketed they earned nearly 20 Returns on Capital in their most recent fiscal year averaged out in the last five years however the company earns about 12.9 Returns on Capital in a given year this is just a percentage point below that Benchmark we'd be looking for while solidly above the average business this is an x on Metric number one for Cigna Jewelers metric number two we're looking for growth we want to see growth in their revenues net incomes and free cash flows this is all or nothing all three have to be up we're using their last 12 months worth of numbers to figure out their overall growth during this time Cigna Jewelers has grown their revenues by 25 their earnings were negative in 2019 due to some impairments of Goodwill and related charge Downs it's good to see that their cash flows were positive in that year in their most recent fiscal year their earnings were positive so that's up here as as well and their free cash flows have been positive in all five of these years even as the business has been cyclical they've grown by 17 overall all three of these are up this is a check on Metric number two metric number three we're looking for earnings per share growth in the last five years this allows us to take the perspective of an individual shareholder and signatures with negative 2019 earnings and positive 2023 earnings this is a check on Metric number three as the company's only diluted existing shareholders by three and a half percent and they've grown their earnings by much more than this over this time metric number four we're looking for free cash flow per share growth in the last five years their growth in their free cash flows are also outpacing their shareholder dilution this is another check on Metric number four so far in their first four metrics we have three checks and Only One X for Cigna Jewelers metric number five we're looking at how they use debt we want their net debt which is their total debt minus their cash and their short-term Investments to be below the amount of free cash flow they produced in their last five years some together Cigna Jewelers has cut their net debt position by a lot right now they only have 163 million dollars worth of net debt they produce positive free cash flows in all five of these years in the last five years they produced about four billion dollars worth of cash overall they easily support their net debt position this is a monster check on Metric number five the businesses balance sheet looks healthy compared to how it produces cash before we get to our valuations for Signet it's time for our bonus metric as our bonus we're looking at Signet Jewelers dividend profile right now they pay 1.2 percent dividend yield the company completely cut their dividend in their fiscal 2021 which covered most of the lockdowns since then they've reinstated their dividend and they've been growing this in their most recent fiscal years the company has easily supported their dividends using their cash flows in all five of these years likely not predicted by management they had a big cash flow spike in the same year that they cut their dividend while their cash flows per share have declined since then their Dividends are still easily covered by these cash flows in all five years this is a snapshot of their last five years of performance and it's no guarantee for the future this is a check on our bonus looking at their dividends the big metric of them all metric number six we want Signet Jewelers average free cash flow to their total Enterprise Value to give us a yield that's above five percent if this is the case this gives a slight risk premium to the yield of the 10-year Treasury and is one of the first ways we'll be estimating a value for the company right now Signet Jewelers has a 3.9 billion dollar Enterprise Value this accounts for both their market cap and their net debt position in the last five years Signet Jewelers produced four billion dollars worth of free cash flow meaning in an average year they produce about 800 million dollars of free cash flow when we divide their 800 million dollars of their average free cash flow by their 3.9 billion dollar total Enterprise Value that gives a huge 20.5 percent average free cash flow to Enterprise Value yield on a current basis the company produced 660 million dollars worth of free cash flow in their most recent fiscal year when that's divided by their 3.9 billion dollar Enterprise Value that gives another huge 17 free cash flow yield both of these are well above that risk premium we'd be seeking these free cash flow yields are multiple times higher than the yield of the 10-year treasury this is a huge check on Metric number six but don't just run out and go buy the business we still need to figure out a per share value for Signet Jewelers using a slightly different way to Value the business everything we've discussed so far is important but there's something missing that in my opinion is the main reason to analyze Signet Jewelers which takes us on to using a discounted cash flow model to come to an estimate of their fair value per share a DCF model is based off the predictability of a company's free cash flows like any model in any discipline its outputs are sensitive to its inputs starting with Signet Jewelers current free cash flows we're using historical growth assumptions to grow these into the future it's up to you to figure out if these are accurate and applicable going forward for the business assuming they grow their free cash flows at seven and a half percent annually for the next decade then assuming that this growth rate is cut in half for the 10 years out from there if we add in the company's tangible Book value which gives an estimate of their net worth and if we're seeking a 15 rate of return which is the rate of return turn Warren Buffett's looking for from his investments in addition to his margin of safety requirements at today's valuations it looks like an estimate of Signet Jeweler's fair value per share is around 73 and a half dollars that's up about four dollars from their current stock price there are some big things to keep in mind here Signet Jewelers is a cyclical business they've had a low degree of predictability in their past this may also be the case for the future and it affects the assumptions we're using for this model this 15 discount rate is an estimate of total returns to shareholders most importantly this analysis isn't financial advice it's not a buy or sell recommendation of any security consult with your financial advisor before considering any investment in just a moment we'll give Signet Jewelers our final rating but we have to address something first we focused a lot on the quantitative by looking at the numbers but what are the qualitative factors of Signet Jewelers business starting with the qualitative factors supporting a potential long thesis number one Signet is the biggest player in a fragmented industry and it's in a strong position to increase market share as Mom and Pop shops exit the market number two 2 There's an opportunity for margin Improvement as the recently acquired Zales barely breaks even this can be achieved via purchasing scale economies overhead rationalization and general restructuring number three Signet size and balance sheet strength make it one of the few jewelry retailers that can invest in Broad advertising campaigns advertising Remains the most effective way to reach the mass Market consumer then the qualitative factors supporting a potential short thesis number one the company needs to invest in its it systems which are old and not up to speed number two Signet relied on in-house credit for 37 percent of total sales and sell receivable turnover decline in recent years practices in relation to receivable write Downs are not the most conservative and charge-offs are higher than the industry average number three Signet has a history of negative publicity that can hurt customer perceptions suggesting problems in the company's culture there you have it for a balanced perspective of some of the qualitative aspects of the business now it's time to give our rating in analyzing Cigna Jewelers stock ticker Sig we were trying to figure out why Michael burry made the company his third largest position that showed up on his 13f filing making up nine percent of those U.S listed stocks while that doesn't cover all of buri's assets under management or show all of his Holdings Signet Jewelers still makes up a not insignificant portion of his assets the company fared very well on our analysis while a cyclical business that goes through its own ups and downs its Returns on Capital were well above those of an average business but just below the Benchmark we were looking for they've grown strongly and are able to throw off a lot of free cash flow and use very little debt in their business the company looked attractive on valuation metrics when we were looking at a yield of their free cash flows to their Enterprise Value and they've reinstated their dividend after slashing that in their fiscal 2021 it's worth reiterating this analysis is not Financial advice when we performed our discounted cash flow analysis Cigna Jewelers looks like it has a fair value per share of around 73 dollars that's slightly up from the company's current stock price the company traded at or below those levels in the the first quarter when Michael burry was buying in looking at all the factors of our analysis Cigna Jewelers looks like a very strong candidate for further research as you could be looking at the company for a similar if not lower price than what berry was buying into the business this is not a buy or sell recommendation of any security it consult with your financial advisor before making any investment decision if you enjoyed today's video please be sure to like the video subscribe to the channel for more stock analysis videos share the next business you want me to look at in the comments below thanks for learning about Cigna Jewelers with me and have a great day
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