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over the past few months china's crackdowns on his tech giants have led many investors to doubt the future of chinese stocks kathy wood recently sold almost all of ark's chinese holdings and many have done the same too amidst a negative sentiment ray dalio believes that everyone is making a huge mistake dalio is the founder and cio of the largest hedge fund in the world bridgewater associates he believes that almost all westerners have completely misunderstood china's recent moves this video will go in depth on why dalio is betting big on china's future and why he thinks everyone is entirely wrong on china's latest policies welcome to caskia ray dalio is not like a typical fund manager in the way he manages money everyone knows about the idea of high risk and high reward in the stock market if you take on more perceived risk then your potential reward increases while that sounds logical dalio doesn't see it that way unlike other fund managers he focuses on low risk and high reward this is called the peer alpha strategy investing in more volatile assets can lead to extreme upwards and downward swings the typical retail investor might be fine with that but dalio focuses on high net worth clients that are often risk averse one statistic named alpha takes risk into consideration alpha is a number that represents someone's risk-adjusted return which is calculated by taking an investor's return and subtracting it by the portfolio's volatility dalio focuses purely on alpha by generating the highest return with the lowest volatility to do this he uses investments that counteract each other to lower overall volatility while still keeping high expected returns one of dalia's most famous funds is the all-weather portfolio which has consistently generated high returns with low volatility his pure alpha plan has also generated impressive returns despite having little to no significant downturns the primary reason why dalio has been able to do this is because of his expertise in macroeconomics ray dalio can see and prepare for economic cycles and he now believes that he is seeing something that many westerners don't see some of you may know about how china recently took down dd from chinese app stores the cyberspace administration of china accused the deity of illegally collecting user data we literally saw china take down the largest ride-sharing app in the country in a blink of an eye this has led dd's talk to fall by 35 since dd's ipo in july the other event that shocked many investors was when china announced that the education sector would become non-profit this instantly tanked the shares of many chinese education companies tal education new oriental and galatu chadadu stock are all down over 85 to 95 percent in the past six months these two events among others have led investors to be fearful of china's future policies nonetheless ray dallow sees the situation completely differently in dalio's perspective he thinks that china has been increasingly capitalistic over the past few decades the chinese government's recent policies are just a small part of a long-term trend to maximize the well-being of its citizens in a recent article dalio said most western observers interpret moves like those two recent ones as a communist party leader showing their true anti-capitalist stripes even though the trend over the last 40 years has clearly been so strongly toward developing a market economy with capital markets with entrepreneurs and capitalists becoming rich as a result they've missed out on what's going on in china and probably will continue to miss out dalio's statement can be directly contrasted with kathy wood who recently stated that she was concerned about china's latest moves in ark's monthly market webinar kathy mentioned how she thinks the incentive for chinese citizens to work has diminished in essence kathy thinks china is moving closer to communism whereas dalio believes that china has and is still moving closer to capitalism so how is it possible that dalio thinks that china is still capitalistic despite the government's recent moves in short dalio thinks that china is simply making moves to benefit the well-being of its country dalio stated that in this case the policy maker signaled to deity that it might not be best to go ahead with the listing and they understandably want to deal with the data privacy issue in the case of educational tutoring companies they want to reduce the educational inequality and the financial burden on those who are desperate to have their children have these services but can't afford them by making them broadly available they believe that these things are better for the country even if the shareholders don't like it dalio is clearly taking a totally different stance on the situation than most investors but his reasoning definitely makes sense in fact china's latest move to alleviate gaming addictions amongst children was also done for the well-being of chinese citizens after all why would the chinese government destroy the future of their economy and discourage innovation despite our speculation the reasoning behind china's new policies is unclear chinese policymakers aren't sharing why they're doing what they're doing nevertheless dalio knows that this isn't the first time that our current situation has changed in fact you remember several situations where the reactions to china's moves are misinterpreted for example in 2015 retail investors flooded into the chinese market with more than 30 million new accounts opened in the first five months of 2015.
when this chinese retail investing bubble popped the chinese government had to buy stocks and manipulate the market in hindsight dalio knows that this was done in order to save the capital markets dalio also recalls when the chinese run plunge in 2016 and the people's bank of china had to widen the currency ban for the chinese one a currency ban is when a country sets price limits for how much a currency can fluctuate in 2016 china widened its currency ban to help its capital markets during this time investors pointed to this as evidence of policymakers turning away from capitalism however dallow thinks that was actually a move showing more confidence in a capitalistic system dalio said that through it all chinese policymakers successfully managed to fall out and pursued their goals i.e the direction of their actions never changed it has been in support of a fast and steady development of capital markets entrepreneurship and openness to investment to foreign investors so i encourage you to look at the trends and not misunderstand and over focus on the wiggles in order for investors to see what's going on dalio thinks that we must understand that chinese policymakers have a goal of acting in the interests of chinese citizens capitalists and investors in china's capital markets are subordinate to this goal as we saw in china's latest moves dalio then went on to say that those in capital markets and capitalists need to not mistake their having riches for having power for determining how things will go dalio was clearly taking a stab at jack ma who mistakenly thought that his ridges would bring in power if you haven't heard of what happened shortly after speaking against the government jack ma disappeared from the public's eye for months in dalia's perspective this was obviously a horrible move by ma warren buffett's right-hand man charlie munger also took a similar stance as dalio i think jack ma was very arrogant to be telling the chinese government how dumb they were and how stupid their policies were and so forth considering their system that is not what he should have been doing dalio's reason is overwhelmingly positive for chinese stocks but he does recognize that there are risks in china the geopolitical environment is changing and this is leading to major changes first of all the sec is changing policies surrounding chinese companies on the u.s stock exchange most notably the sec has temporarily prohibited chinese companies from going public the second change is a recent threat by the u.s government to prohibit pension funds from investing in chinese stocks dalio believes that we should assume such things will happen in the future and invest accordingly but don't misinterpret these wiggles as changes in trends and don't expect this chinese state-run capitalism to be exactly like western capitalism as i covered earlier dalio uses a pure alpha strategy where he invests in counteracting investments in order to increase investment returns while reducing overall risk he believes diversifying into china is vital for every investor's portfolio rey jalio's overall message can be summed up into two sentences the recent moves by china are simply part of a long-term trend which is that china is fostering an increasingly capitalistic environment therefore westerners like kathy which shouldn't be scared of lowered innovation as that isn't in line with the goals of the chinese government with that being said i'm excited to announce that my research platform is officially available for the month of august my platform includes my main portfolio my real 25 000 model portfolio my watch list research reports personally written articles valuation models and much more if you're interested or if you're just curious
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