저자: CasgainsAcademy진행자 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 캐시 우드의 중국주 매도와 찰리 멍거·리루 등 가치투자자의 중국 매수론을 대비하며, 진행자는 중국 기업의 펀더멘털은 저평가 상태라고 본다. 캐시 우드(ARK)의 중국 매도: 최근 수주간 중국 보유 주식 대부분을 매도했다. JD 3억달러 이상, 칸준 4천만달러, 핀둬둬 1억1천만달러, BYD 4,800만달러, 바이두 1억6,500만달러, 텐센트 6억5천만달러 이상 매도. 올해 2월 중국주 매수 결정을 뒤집은 움직임이다. 매도 배경 1: 중국의 신규 규제로 성공에 대한 유인이 줄어 장기적으로 혁신과 성장이 둔화될 수 있다는 판단. 앤트그룹 사례가 상징적이다. 매도 배경 2: 바이든 행정부도 중국에 강경 기조를 유지하며 미중 긴장이 높아졌다. 알리바바 알리익스프레스의 유럽 확장 등 해외 사업에 보안 이슈로 제약이 생길 수 있다고 봤다. 매도 배경 3: 단기 밸류에이션 우려. 단기 규제 촉매가 없어 중국 주식 가치가 당분간 낮게 유지될 것으로 보며, 현재는 재택 관련 서비스 등 단기 트렌드에 베팅 중이다. 향후 중국주 재매수 가능성도 언급. 가치투자자의 중국 매수론: 워런 버핏의 중국판으로 불리는 리루는 1998년 이후 연평균 약 20% 수익을 냈다고 전해지며, 버크셔의 BYD 투자를 설득한 인물로 언급된다. BYD는 2008년 투자 이후 약 59배 상승했다. 찰리 멍거는 자신의 데일리저널 포트폴리오의 19%를 알리바바에 투입했다. 중국 공산당은 알리바바 성장을 둔화시킬 유인이 없다는 논리다. 멍거는 변동이익실체(VIE) 구조에 대한 우려를 제기했으나, 중국이 VIE를 막으면 외국인 투자자가 떠나고 심각한 경기침체나 전쟁 위험이 있어 그럴 유인이 없다고 봤다. 모니시 프라브라이: 알리바바와 텐센트에 강한 긍정적 견해를 보이며, 알리바바에 펀드의 14% 이상을 배분했다. 두 기업을 중국에 기반을 둔 자본주의 기업으로 보고 빠른 성장을 예상한다. 중국 당국 입장: 펑성하이 부위원장은 조건이 충족되면 중국 기업의 미국 상장을 계속 허용하겠다고 밝혔고, 시장 반응을 고려해 급격한 변동을 피하겠다고 했다. 교육기업 영리 금지는 일회성 조치라고 설명했다. 리스크: 추가 규제 가능성, 미중 신냉전 또는 제3차 세계대전 가능성. 진행자는 리스크와 윤리적 우려를 감수할 수 있다면 중국 빅테크가 향후 5년간 2~5배 상승할 수 있다고 본다. 진행자는 자신의 리서치 플랫폼 무료 체험을 홍보했다.
다듬은 글
over the past few weeks kathy wood the ceo and cio of arkhanvest has exited out of almost all of her chinese holdings she recently sold over 300 million dollars of jd 40 million dollars of kanjun 110 million dollars of pin duo duo 48 million dollars of byd auto 165 million dollars of baidu and over 650 million dollars of tencent this move essentially reversed ark's decision to purchase chinese stocks earlier this year in february on the contrary many valley investors are taking advantage of the buying opportunity warren buffett's right-hand man charlie munger ray dalio the cio of the largest hedge fund in the world and manish pabrai all believe that chinese stocks are at a major discount right now this leaves one question for us investors which side should we be on in this video we will go in depth on both sides of the debate and come to a conclusion on the heated clash in chinese stocks welcome to cash gain in arc invest july market webinar kathy would explain how we've already seen a valuation reset in chinese stocks due to a few reasons the core essence of capitalism is that through a desire to generate wealth productivity and innovation are created with china's new regulations on successful companies like deity and and tencent kathy believes that the incentive for success has diminished in china and because of this kathy thinks that less innovation and advancement will occur over the long term you know one thing that i think is happening is a revaluation because it does seem with ant as the first example that many i i would imagine don't don't know anyone personally but just looking at the situation that the incentives to uh become you know incredibly successful in in china are diminishing somewhat now that uh the government is expressing concern in addition to lowered incentives many believe that biden would be more lenient on china than trump but so far we've seen the biden administration continue to be harsh on china in fact most recently a chinese state-run media outlet accused biden of threatening war the result of the rising tensions between the u.s and china is the possibility for strict business restrictions for foreign companies for example alibaba is rapidly expanding its aliexpress marketplace into europe however if there are some security concerns then this expansion may not occur as expected kathy sees this possibility as a major detriment to future growth so again there is in terms of these very large mega cap companies being able to scale to other parts of the world i have a feeling there are some national security considerations that might either slow them down or stop them the last reason for ark selling out of china is because of short-term valuation concerns kathy wood often focuses on long-term movements but she also looks at short-term trends and actively trades them in terms of chinese stocks katy believes that valuations will remain low for a while because there are no short-term regulatory catalysts therefore it is possible that we see kathy wood and arkhan vest buy back in the chinese stocks in the future i would say from a valuation point of view these stocks have come down and again from a valuation point of view probably will remain down kathy wood is currently betting on the short-term trends that stay at home services will remain stronger than expected as a result it is possible that she would rather allocate capital to this bet instead of investing in chinese assets that will likely remain low for the short term on the other side of the debate many value investors believe that the chinese capital markets are currently very attractive most investors regard warren buffett as the greatest investor of all time and rightfully so as he has an incredible long-term track record however behind berkshire hathaway there are many investors that helped berkshire become what it is today two of those people are lee liu the buffett of china and charlie munger the right-hand man of buffett both of these successful investors believe that chinese assets are incredibly undervalued right now lee liu is a successful fund manager who according to several sources has averaged a return of 20 per year since 1998 that is incredibly impressive and one of the primary ways he has done this is by investing in international investment opportunities with china in particular in fact lilu was the one who convinced berkshire hathaway to purchase byd auto a stock that has grown by 59 times in value since brochure's initial investment in 2008.
charlie munger allocated 19 of the daily journals portfolio to alibaba this was a very rare occurrence as manga previously only held four stocks with alibaba being his fifth position now and because of how close they are rumors are that lilu convinced charlie monger to purchase alibaba's stock ultimately monger's investment thesis in alibaba comes down to the fundamentals of alibaba and the ccp's incentives the chinese communist party has no incentive to slow down the growth of alibaba in china's big tech as a result chinese policies surrounding china's big tech will likely not hurt big tech's fundamentals much monger is not always like buffy as he doesn't care as much about what other people say about him in this case he sees alibaba as a growing e-commerce and cloud giant that will likely continue to dominate he doesn't care about whether people will call him a sellout for investing in alibaba however his alibaba investment definitely has risks munger has spoken up against the variable interest entity structure or the vie structure which is the structure that chinese stocks used to go public on the u.s stock exchange in order to attract foreign investors however it appears that his fears have died down because there is no incentive for china to go against the vie structure and any opposition against the vae structure would either scare away all foreign investors and send china into a deep recession or literally start world war iii there was never anything like the history of the world so my hat is off to the chinese and i think they will continue to allow people to make money they've learned it works the chinese i love what the guy said in the first place i don't care whether the cat is black and white as long as it catches mice that's my kind of talk in that list of the 20 most valuable companies three are chinese now if you if you're looking out 30 years you know mama do you think it'll be chinese my guess is more but uh but i don't think i don't think it'll top the united states uh but who knows similar to monger another well-known value investor monish prabrai is also extremely bullish on alibaba and has allocated over fourteen percent of his fund to the company manis provide reportedly compounded a return of 25.7 per year over 18 years he did this by not looking for stocks that were just slightly undervalued but by looking for stocks that had a large margin of safety while still having the potential to 5x in value in a recent interview he argued that alibaba and tencent are both fundamentally solid capitalistic businesses that will continue growing at a fast pace and especially if you look at some businesses like let's say if you look at a business like tencent or if you look at business like alibaba these two companies specifically very early in their journey had western investors or non-chinese investors and both these companies right from the beginning i think of them more as being happened to be based in china and because it's such a large market happen to have most of their operations in china but they're really uh in many ways multinational in their views and how they look at things they've had a lot of i would say non-chinese infusion into their dna and thinking very early and many of those elements are a bit positive for them on both sides of the debate we have some interesting arguments kathy wood could be making a short-term plan valuations on chinese stocks remaining low for the time being on the other hand she could also be selling out of china because the risks are not worth it and that future innovation will be lower than expected in my opinion if we are simply looking from a fundamental perspective china's assets are definitely undervalued especially since most of china's businesses have remained fundamentally unchanged in a recent meeting with u.s bank executives the vice chairman of china's securities regulatory commission feng shinghai reassured that china will continue to allow chinese companies to go public in the u.s as long as listing requirements are met additionally he also went on to explain how china's regulatory commission didn't expect the market to react so negatively to china's new regulations in the future he stated that china will take market reactions into account for new policies and will avoid sharp volatility as you may know already china declared that the entire education business will become a non-profit sector in the meeting fang addressed this move to ban for-profit education companies and called it a one-off situation despite all of the seemingly good news there are still some serious risks to investing in china's stocks for all we know there could be further regulations made on china's largest companies not only that but world war iii or the next cold war might just happen in front of our eyes if you are comfortable with the risks and any ethical concerns then investing in chinese stocks could be a lucrative investment play at the current valuations china's big tech could increase by 2-5 x in value over the next five years with that being said i have some very exciting news for you i am officially opening up a free preview of my stock market research platform down below my research platform includes my portfolio watch list research reports and much more with only 99 limited spots for the month of august if you're interested or just curious what do you think about the current chinese news and will you be investing in chinese stocks don't forget to subscribe and i'll see you in the next one
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