저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: 캐시 우드는 인플레이션보다 디플레이션이 더 큰 위험이라고 보며, 이 영상은 2021년 8월 기준 그의 장기 견해를 소개한다. 유튜버 요약: 캐시 우드 펀드에서 2.7억 달러 순유출, 공매도 세력이 ARK 보유 종목 대부분에 숏 포지션을 잡았다는 배경 설명. 인플레이션 vs 디플레이션: 시장 다수는 과열 인플레이션을 우려하지만 우드는 디플레이션을 더 큰 리스크로 본다. 디플레이션 요인 1 — 기술 기반 비용 하락: 배터리 가격이 30년간 크게 하락했고 규모의 경제와 기술 발전으로 계속 하락할 것. 제조, 유틸리티, 농업, 운송 등에서 생산성 급증. 디플레이션 요인 2 — 기존 기업의 구조적 가격 하락: 전기차 전환 과정에서 포드 등 기존 완성차는 자사 내연기관차와 경쟁하며 가격 압박을 받고, 전환하지 않는 기업은 구식 재고로 가격을 내려야 함. 단기주주 압박으로 부채를 늘려 자사주 매입한 기업은 채무 상환 부담. 디플레이션 요인 3 — 상품 가격 급락: 목재 가격은 5월 중순 이후 천 보드피트당 1,600달러 이상에서 500달러 아래로 하락, 구리는 고점 대비 약 15%, 유가도 15% 이상 하락. 달러 강세(중국 델타 변이 봉쇄 영향)도 원인으로 지목. 섹터별 전망: 에너지(전기차 영향), 자동차 및 부품 공급망, 오프라인 소매, 디지털 지갑 등 금융서비스의 구조적 변화 언급. S&P500의 최소 절반이 기술 전환 영향을 받을 것이라는 주장. 과거 기존 섹터는 장기적으로 90~100% 하락할 수 있다는 언급. 버블 여부: 우드는 현재가 버블이 아니라고 봄. 혁신 관련 밸류에이션은 크게 하락했고 회의론은 증가했으며, 1990년대 말과 달리 과열된 애널리스트 목표가 경쟁이 없다고 주장. 나쁜 뉴스에 할인이 과하다고 보아 오히려 편하다는 입장. 리스크 및 조건: 디플레이션 시나리오가 현실화되면 시장 충격이 크다고 암시. 단, 구체적 가격 목표나 기간은 제시되지 않음. 출연자 전망: 우드는 인플레이션 우려 다수와 반대되는 역발상 입장을 취함. 달러 강세와 상품 약세가 지속될 것으로 봄.
다듬은 글
remember to kathy would close your fund close it listen to what the late jack bogle would say close it that investors have pulled a net 2.7 billion dollars from the funds since the end of june arc invest kathy wood is on the defense uh i actually feel a a little more comfortable i like bad news over the past few months criticism against cathy wood has garnered substantial attention however kathy wood recently went on cnbc to dispel any attacks against her not only that but she also boldly one of the most unanticipated crash in history nobody sees what she believes is coming and this will lead major institutions and investors to suddenly lose billions this video will go in depth on the massive catalyst that are coming and how they will heavily impact the stock market going forward short sellers are rapidly attacking kathy woods funds they've shorted almost all of the holdings in her funds and some have shorted her entire innovation etf in fact one management company is about to launch an etf that exclusively shorts ark or ark's innovation fund so why are so many short sellers like michael bury confident in their positions against arc in short these short sellers think massive inflation is coming soon not only that but investors worldwide have witnessed stocks rise substantially over the past 12 months which could lead to a fatal crash a surface level analysis would show us that consumer prices are rising in therefore this overheating will lead to a major crash ahead however this has become a popular opinion lately when everyone thinks a crash is going to occur that's when the crash is least likely to occur cathy wood does think that a crash is coming but not in the way that you might imagine many renowned investors believe that the risk of overheated inflation is incredibly high however kathy believes a completely different risk is imminent deflation this might seem totally crazy especially since the federal reserve has printed immense amounts of money nevertheless kathy's bet on the ultimate chakra of deflation starts to make more sense after a deeper dive i i actually think it's more of a macro call when i read the bearish analyses they seem to be centered on inflation and interest rates going higher which will kill valuations and if anything as you mentioned carl we're focused on the deflationary forces that are building up in the economy i think that's going to be the shocker out there that uh deflation is the greater risk now not inflation there are three deflationary forces that will inevitably take place but before we get into that we must talk about the several sectors that are about to die off the movement towards new technologies has been vastly accelerated by the pandemic electric vehicle sales have increased substantially during the pandemic especially in comparison to fossil fuel powered vehicles the pandemic has caused many people to realize that electric vehicles are superior to gas-powered vehicles that might sound like nonsense but the data that has been coming out recently is mind-blowing in the uk plug-in hybrid sales are up 93.6 in 2021.
additionally electric and hybrid electric vehicles are experiencing a similar increase year-over-year on the other hand petrol and diesel are being demolished with diesel down an astounding 46.9 year-over-year online retail is also experiencing a massive acceleration in sales the world is not going to go back to outdated services all these quote-unquote recovery services are recovering but only in the short term over the long term these stocks will fall 90 or even 100 percent as many of them inevitably lose market share this is not a small scale event either the transition to new technologies is going to affect at least half of the s p 500.
when we look at the s p 500 for example we think that because of technology changes a lot of industries are in harm's way energy certainly is because of electric vehicles and the move towards autonomous electric and you can throw in autos and the auto supply chain they're scrambling to try and get into this new world it's going to be very difficult even when you think of retail many investors i'm sure think okay well we've seen the destruction there we think it's just begun in a way because online retail sales have only hit 20 percent of total sales here in the united states when a trend moves from you know 10 through 20 percent it's usually moving into overdrive so we think a a lot a much higher percentage of sales will be online so even retail and any any business that can be done online financial services i would say digital wallet defy uh big problem a big challenge for financial services there are many outdated sectors that are quickly losing market share and will only continue to lose market share however there is something even more important that we have to talk about there are three main deflationary forces the first one being technology enabled cost declines over the past decade demand for electric vehicles worldwide has risen substantially this increase in demand was primarily driven by the cost decline of batteries lithium-ion battery prices have fallen dramatically over the past three decades the economies of scale and technological advancements will guarantee that battery prices will continue the decline over the long term now this isn't just the automotive space similar exponential declines are happening in almost every sector manufacturing utilities agriculture and transport and warehousing have all seen enormous increases in real productivity technological advancements are creating deflation purely through increased efficiency however while innovation is a long-term deflationary force in the short term it isn't as strong as the last deflationary force out of the three which we will talk about soon not all deflation is bad there's really good deflation associated with these technologically enabled platforms they follow learning curves which are characterized by declining costs and prices and enables more and more sectors to have access to these powerful new technologies the second source of deflation is another long-term trend in the first force we talked about how innovation increases efficiency which leads to lower prices on the other side of the spectrum there are also incumbents who are being disrupted by these new technologies these incumbents are soon going to be stuck with obsolete inventory and assets over time for example the ford machi is a great step towards electrification however ford now has to compete against his own fossil fuel powered vehicles furthermore it has to spend time and money transitioning into a newer unproven territory for them in other words ford is essentially creating competition for itself which will inevitably drive prices down for its vehicles some companies are even worse than ford as they aren't even taking on any new technologies those are the companies that will certainly be stuck with outdated products that must be sold at a lower price the bad deflation is going to be associated with companies who paid too much attention to short-term oriented shareholders who wanted their profits now wanted their dividends now and did not want companies to sacrifice short-term profitability in order to capitalize on some of these massive trends that we see building they are going to be stuck with obsolete products and yet in the meantime they've leveraged up their balance sheets to buy back sales and satisfy short-term oriented shareholders how are they going to service that debt they're going to have to cut prices of these products and services that are not going to be as popular in the future as they have been in the past the two deflationary forces that we covered are both long-term trends on the other hand the third force is much more powerful in the short term commodity prices a few months ago kathy would predict that lumber prices would crash and lumber prices did indeed collapse since mid-may lumber prices have fallen from over 1600 per thousand board fee all the way down to under 500 similar declines have also occurred in other commodities although they haven't been as fatal as a lumber crash copper is down roughly 15 from its highs in mid-may additionally oil has declined by over 15 percent from its highs lumber copper oil and many other commodities have fallen significantly from their highs leading many to think that the crash is already over however kathy wood definitely doesn't think that the commodity crash was spearheaded by cyclical commodity price declines and also by the rise of the dollar contrary to expectations of the us dollar facing major inflation ahead the u.s dollar has only been rising in comparison to other currencies one of the reasons why the dollar has been increasing is because of china's worsening economic data which was caused by the impacts of the delta variant in china china's economic shutdown will likely continue to worsen whereas the u.s hasn't been shutting down much at all because most people are vaccinated the bond market predicted that the dollar would rise and it is still pricing in a further increase ahead despite everything that we just talked about everyone is still predicting that inflation is coming that's why kathy thinks that deflation will be the ultimate market mover nobody is expecting deflation to come even though several indicators are pointing towards it third source of deflation which is really starting to come through now in a noticeable way started in mid-may uh when lumber prices broke we're seeing commodity price uh deflation lumber prices have been cut to one-third less than one-third of their heat 17 11 to 4 500 right now you've got copper down roughly 15 15 to 20 percent you now have oil down nearly 15 to 20 percent and i think the cream of the crop here and the reason this may be happening and may accelerate to the downside is the dollar is going up and that of course might be associated with what's going on in china one of the major counter arguments to kathy which thesis is that we are in a bubble this is definitely not the case valuations surrounding innovations have declined significantly over the past few months at the same time skepticism towards innovation has increased by an immense amount you know what when uh i see such negative sentiment out there especially when it comes to valuation and longer uh time horizons investment time horizons i actually feel a little more comfortable i like bad news the discounting is is worse now than the news actually will be i actually feel better in that kind of environment for for our strategies i don't think we're in a bubble which is what i think many bears think we are in a bubble and i remember the late 90s you know our strategy would have been cheered on go go get them all right you know and you remember the leap frogging of analysts making estimates one higher than the other price targets one higher than the other we have nothing like that right now in fact you see a lot of uh ipos or specs coming out and falling to earth we couldn't be further away from a bubble kathy wood is clearly taking a contrarian stance compared to the crowd not many other analysts are predicting the same trends or cyclical movements that kathy is with that being said let me know what you think about kathy's prediction in the comments section below
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