저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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Cathie Wood는 인플레이션 공포와 달리 디플레이션 충격이 올 것이라고 주장한다. 통화 측면: M2 증가율이 4월 27%에서 5월 약 13~17% 수준으로 급감하고 있어 시장이 디플레이션을 반영하고 있다고 본다. 채권 측면: 10년물 국채금리가 3월 고점 1.74%에서 1.43% 수준으로 하락해 채권시장이 인플레이션이 아닌 디플레이션을 예측한다고 해석한다. 인플레이션 단기 전망: PCE 물가가 2월 1.6%에서 5월 3.9%로 올랐고 단기적으로 5%까지 갈 수 있으나 장기적으로는 물가가 내려간다고 본다. 유가 전망: OPEC의 감산과 전기차 확산으로 장기 유가가 현재 배럴당 약 75달러에서 3~12달러 수준까지 하락할 수 있다고 주장한다. 1970년대 초 수준 회귀를 언급했다. 달러 및 원자재: 달러지수가 급등해 구매력이 강해졌고, 목재 등 원자재 가격이 급락했다. 돼지고기·구리 가격도 약세 신호로 언급했다. 소비 측면: 실질 소비가 전월 대비 0.4% 감소했고 내구재는 4.3%, 비내구재는 0.5% 줄었다. 서비스 소비 증가는 상대적으로 약했다. 반대 시각: Ray Dalio는 채권 버블을, Michael Burry는 초인플레이션을 경고했다. 발언자는 장기적으로 인플레이션이 문제되지 않지만 단기적으로는 소비 증가로 예상보다 높을 수 있다고 본다. 리스크 및 조건: 디플레이션 시나리오는 OPEC 감산 포기, 전기차 보급 가속, 소비 둔화가 전제다. 추가 고려사항으로 연준의 채권 매입과 기업채·회사채 ETF 매각 계획이 있다.
다듬은 글
over the past few months almost everyone has been warning about upcoming inflation ray dalio michael bury warren buffett and even consumers worldwide have witnessed inflation start to take off in practically all goods and services not only that but the majority of investors believe that inflation is going to continue to rise substantially in the future however as a typical contrarian kathy would think that the opposite is going to happen deflation the world has prepared for inflation and the real black swan event in kathy's eyes is actually a deflationary crash this video will go in depth on why kathy believes this and how data backs up her claims welcome to caspian'] kathy woods started her career as an economist and has decades of experience to back up her claims therefore it's vital that we see what kathy has to say regardless of any preconceived notions in fact in the early 1980s two famous economists henry kaufman and milton friedman thought that inflation was here to stay on the other hand kathy wood a relatively new economist thought that inflation was cooling off in the end kathy was right now not surprisingly kathy wood is making her bold prediction against the crowd the first signal pointing towards decelerating inflation is the money supply the supply of m2 money has increased significantly ever since the pandemic started m2 money is a measure of the u.s money supply that includes savings deposits checks cash checkable deposits money market funds and certificates of deposit of course with the rise of stimulus checks it's not a surprise that m2 money has increased dramatically however cathy wood is seeing a trend which is that m2 money growth is slowing down at a rapid pace m2 money growth has slowed down from 27 in april this year to just 17 in may this slowdown in growth is likely why the bond market has been rallying over the past few months 10-year treasury bond yields have been suppressed to roughly 1.5 percent after peaking at 1.7 in march because bond yields and bond prices are inversely correlated this means that the bond market has been rallying as yields are going down when this happens we know that the bond market is predicting deflation instead of inflation the the bond market could be rallying because of what i just mentioned about money growth i don't think many uh economists have observed i haven't seen it at least that the money growth rate has been cut in half from that 27 percent to 13 13.8 percent maybe the bond bond market is uh focused on that you might think that the bond market has been rallying because of the artificial buying power of the federal reserve however the fed has been purchasing bonds for months now and this isn't a new variable in the bond market the buying power from the fed has not changed the entire time as even when the bond yield spiked up in march the fed's buying power was still there in fact the fed plan to sell some corporate bonds and corporate bond etfs that it purchased in the pandemic after the high inflation reports kathy wood like every economist actually expected the bond market to sell off nevertheless bonds have just continued to rally but i will tell you with the cpi reports that we have gotten ppi as well much higher than expected i would have expected the bond market to continue to sell off and interest rates therefore to go up instead since the end of march the 10-year treasury bond yield has dropped from 1.74 to 1.43 no matter how strong the economic data have been how high the inflation numbers have been and so the the bond market is sniffing something out i believe now many will say well it's just quantitative easing and uh i i think quantitative easing was true at the beginning of this year and through march when we went from 0.9 to 1.74 so nothing's changed uh on that score but the bond market is sniffing out something here as crazy as cathy wood may seem she does actually expect inflation to stay for the next couple of months the personal consumption expenditures price index has shown that prices have increased 1.6 year-over-year in february to 3.9 in may however kathy thinks that this inflation rate could increase all the way to five percent so while inflation could heat up for the next couple of months kathy sees prices going down long term the rise in oil prices is ironically setting the stage for deflation the opec which is a group of many countries that control the supply of oil is determined to make back some profits by keeping the oil supply low this may actually be counter intuitive as oil prices have gone up more and more people have begun flocking towards electric vehicles during the pandemic ev sales have increased disproportionately to fossil fuel vehicles this is partly influenced by increasing gas prices and also the idea that evs are superior to gas powered vehicles if oil prices continue to rise then this will just incentivize more and more people to purchase evs which lowers the long-term demand for oil crude oil currently sits at roughly 75 dollars per barrel which is approaching the previous high of 77 kathy thinks that oil will eventually go down to 3 to 12 dollars per barrel that's right 3-12 per barrel 12 per barrel would be an 84 decline from the current prices if these low prices come to reality substantial deflation would come one of the reasons is of course uh opec and they have about five million barrows barrels spare barrels they could produce per day they're not they want to keep the oil price high enough so they can fund their budgets but at some point here they may end up killing demand when they start seeing demand destruction because of pricing i do think they'll start producing and as you know longer term the combination of electric and autonomous electric vehicles we think is going to drive oil prices down as i've said now this is my point of view we haven't done the research uh to get us here yet but i think we could go down back down to where oil prices landed after the cartel took over in the early 70s and they went from i think three dollars a barrel or four dollars to twelve dollars a barrel wouldn't be surprised ultimately to see us back there especially as electric vehicles continue to take off and they are starting to take significant share another piece of data that points towards deflation is the purchasing power of the us dollar in the past month the dollar index has spiked up significantly this directly contrasts with the fears of inflation in the dollar as the dollar is actually gaining purchasing power compared to other currencies this may be from biden's corporate and capital gains taxes coming in lower than expected additionally commodities have also been crashing lately lumber prices in particular have taken a sudden turn downwards which cathy wood actually predicted before the crash happened there are also a couple of other signals including china's pork prices and copper prices which kathy mentions in the following clip against i think the consensus expectation the consensus short in terms of currencies was on the dollar at the beginning of this year and the dollar is not going down uh and that's that's also consistent with the bond yields coming down surprisingly the last factor is consumer demand real consumption drops 0.4 month over month durable goods consumption in particular is down four point three percent month over month and non-durable goods consumption is down 0.5 percent month over month at the same time services consumption is only up 0.4 month over month which is not as high as the decline in goods consumption overall as demonstrated by the crash in commodity prices goods consumption and the slowdown of growth in the money supply inflation might not be as serious of a problem as you think on the other side of the debate there are many counter arguments such as ray dalio calling out the bond bubble and michael bury claimed that hyperinflation is coming personally i believe that in the long run inflation won't be a problem however in the short term inflation could be higher than expected as consumption increases across the board let me know what you think in the comment section below if you're interested in my personal research reports my buy and sell alerts how i navigate my new 25 thousand dollar portfolio which i have a goal of growing to 100 000 exclusive valuation spreadsheets and my main portfolio i'll also leave a link to the full interview i used down below
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