저자: CasgainsAcademy채널진행자 · 외국인
요약 보기
캐시 우드 발언을 인용·해설하는 영상으로, 2021년 6월 시점 ARK 펀드들이 고점 대비 크게 하락한 상황에서 캐시 우드는 현재가 항복(capitulation) 국면이며 향후 5년간 포트폴리오가 3배 이상 될 것이라고 주장한다. 첫째, 지난 1년간 ARK ETF 급등 후 테슬라·로쿠·텔레닥·코인베이스 등 주요 보유 종목이 25% 이상 하락했고, 캐시 우드의 장기 성과와 과거 조정 경고 적중을 근거로 반등을 전망한다. 둘째, 5년 목표가는 그대로이거나 상향되었고, 고점 대비 30~40% 할인된 성장주가 '세일' 중이라고 본다. 가치주로의 순환매는 성장주 재반등의 발판이 된다는 논리다. 셋째, 원자재(목재·구리·니켈) 가격은 수요 감소와 공급 증가로 하락해 디플레이션을 유발하고, 이것이 성장주에 우호적이라고 주장한다. 넷째, 현금성 자산이던 애플 등을 매도하고 테ladoc·팔란티어·코인베이스·트윌리오 등 고확신 성장주를 매수하는 '하락 매수' 전략을 설명한다. 다섯째, 비트코인은 탭루트 업그레이드(시그널 약 98%로 90% 기준 충족)와 유틸리티 기업의 채굴 참여 가능성으로 항복 국면을 지나 가격이 상승할 것이라고 본다. 온체인 지표 분석가(Yassin)도 현재를 2020년 코로나 위기 때 수준의 항복 국면으로 해석한다. 진행자는 현 시기를 장기 투자 기회로 보고, 유료 멤버십(패트리온) 가입을 권유한다.
다듬은 글
we believe that our portfolios will more than triple over the next five years kathy wood's rise to fame with arcane vest is considered extremely quick in 2020 she roasted a spotlight after her bullish dance on tesla gained traction and the arc etfs rose well over 150 percent in one year tesla square roku teledoc and coinbase which are top holdings in her portfolio are all down over 25 percent and some are down even more than that arkan vest's five famous active etfs which are ark arkw arkq arkf and arkg are all also simultaneously down substantially after this downwards movement many have begun to question whether kathy with investing style can be successful over the test of time critics of kathy have also garnered attention lately as they have the confirmation bias of arch invest funds being down significantly year to date however while some are doubting arch vest cathy wood believes that ark is about to undergo a massive comeback and that we are close to the bottom in this video i will cover why kathy believes that arc invest funds are about to explode over the next few months and generate a 3x return over the next 5 years welcome to cas game some of you might think that khaki promoting arkhan vest funds is nothing new as she is the ceo and ceo of arkhanvest however those that followed kathy over the past few months would know that she warned about an upcoming correction multiple times before it actually happened here on this channel i covered those warnings i'm sure we're going to go through a doozy of a correction this year well i i do believe if rates were to take a sharp turn up uh that we would uh we would see evaluation reset and our portfolios would uh would be prime candidates for that valuation reset of course since these warnings from kathy roadstocks have all faced exactly the correction that she was talking about kathy wood recently gave the opposite of these signals which is that a bull run for growth stocks is coming kathy isn't a profit but she's been right many times and she also has decades of experience as she beat the s p 500 every year from the beginning of 2001 to the end of 2010 not only that but her long-term success at arc invest solidifies her reputation in the financial space most recently she went on bloomberg to explain how we are on the brink of a bull running growth stocks and cryptocurrencies you can never say when we've hit bottom i mean i can tell you uh that the valuations in in our mo in in our portfolios would suggest uh that over the next five years again if our research is correct no promises uh we believe that our portfolios will more than triple over the next five years so that's more than a 25 compound annual rate of return over the next five years actually it's approaching 30 after today basically all investors know that the goal of investing in the stock market is to buy low and sell high however while in theory everyone knows this most investors don't follow it this is because when everyone is bullish that's usually when the stock market falls and when everyone is bearish that's usually when the stock market goes up in order to succeed with timing the market most of the time you have to do the opposite of what everyone thinks back in march of 2020 most investors thought the world was doomed and that the market was going to continue to collapse in hindsight those investors or should i say most investors missed out on one of the greatest buying opportunities according to kathy wood's indicators we are now in the capitulation phase for both growth stocks and cryptocurrencies right now many investors are panicking and some are actually selling their stocks and cryptos in anticipation of a crash this is usually the time where we should be buying stocks as buffett says we should be greedy when others are fearful we were looking at all the indicators this morning they are all suggesting that we are in the capitulation phase which is a really great time to buy no matter what the asset is a capitulation phase is buy it's on sale the overall market hasn't gone down much lately as value stocks have been on the rise over the past few months that is exactly what kathy wants the bull market is broadening out and when this happens it serves as a launching pad for growth stocks to explode in the future this is because kathy thinks that commodities like lumber copper and nickel are going to crash as orders from companies get cancelled not only that but she also thinks that the supply of commodities is increasing dramatically in anticipation of high demand which will lead the price of commodities to level down according to her this will create deflation set up growth stocks to increase once again kathy has five year price targets on all the stocks she owns and those price targets have only gone up in the past few months the price of stocks does not always accurately reflect a business's performance over the past few months the price of growth stocks has fallen while earnings have remained strong what has happened is our price targets for the next five years that's our investment time horizon have not changed right uh but and not at all yeah not in fact some of them have gone up as quarterly results have come out now they're not going to change that much because that one-quarters result is not going to change a five-year price target by that much but the forces that the coronavirus put in motion supporting all of the innovation uh that in which we invest they are not they're not looking back uh and so what we are seeing is you know a 30 to 40 percent discount to peak prices in in february uh for the same price targets uh so we're looking at this saying all right on sale innovation is on sale and oh by the way the bull market has broadened out it has it is now embracing value and more cyclical stocks so what has happened is the bull market has broadened has strengthened and that is using usually a launching pad for our next move up kathy also detailed this drastic movement in an article released on arkhanvest's website where she explained how the current rotation is opening up for a huge investment opportunity fear uncertainty and doubt over the past few months have given us investors a great opportunity to average down because plenty of investors were rotating into value stocks many growth companies were hit hard and are now readily available for 30 to 40 percent discount despite the fact that nothing fundamentally changed about the businesses and their outlooks nevertheless cathy wood believes that this rotation into value stocks was both justified and healthy first of all there has been immense competition due to the v-shaped economic recovery we saw businesses slash their inventories in production only to be met with tons of pent-up consumer demands not too long after at this time this temporarily outperformed the growth seen in the early stages of innovation second of all after the fed's unprecedented boost to the economy investors have been expecting a rise in both the inflation and the interest rate now that these events occurred kathy would believe that over the next six months we will begin to see another rotation back in the growth stocks and therefore another substantial rally the v-shaped recovery has now taken effect in the markets as the markets are forward-looking and we've already seen sectors such as the commodity spike up to crazy levels businesses are currently stocking up on their inventory in preparation to meet the new consumer demand with everyone receiving their vaccinations which is going to lead to drastic consequences in preparation for the recovery of our economy businesses have caused durable and non-durable goods to spike up in value and many are making the mistake of overstocking their inventory this is because by the time companies are fully stocked up for our economy's newfound demand consumers will already have satisfied their recovery spending and will level down their spending after all it wouldn't make sense to believe that this level of demand can be sustained for an extended period of time now kathy is not just making a prediction that growth stocks are going to explode she is also betting big on it arkan vest's six active etfs all have strict restrictions on the amount of cash they can hold so in total each one of those etf cash positions are lower than 0.5 percent of the entire fund as a result of these restrictions kathy wood uses a unique strategy where instead of holding cash she invests in cash-like stocks that are in a mature stage of growth for example apple served as a cash-like stock that arc invest purchased while the market was highly valued recently arc invest sold out of their entire apple stock position in order to purchase other early stage growth stocks and higher conviction stocks alongside apple two examples of cash-like stocks include baidu and regeneron as arcs sold out of almost all their buy doing regeneron stock to purchase other high conviction stocks these high conviction stocks include teledoc talenteer coinbase and twilio in essence kathy wood is buying the dip on growth stocks by selling cash-like stocks to purchase earlier stage growth stocks so apple was one of our cash-like instruments it's an innovative company it's in in in the innovation zone but its characteristics are very defensive so we will add names like apple the fangs apple google facebook we will add those uh add to those positions uh or even reintroduce those stocks as a bull market our portfolios were up 150 percent we knew there was going to be a correction and we just wanted to have very liquid stocks apple is a great company it's going to do fine uh it's a fang it's in a lot of portfolios we are all about the next fangs but we will use the existing fangs if you see they are acting very defensively become a defensive group so we will fold them in increase them when we see a move like we saw last year when we see a decline like the one we're seeing now we're seeing much higher returns from the other stocks in our portfolio another interesting movement that kathy recently predicted is a comeback in bitcoin in arkhanvest's weekly newsletter kathy and the arkhanvest team explained how bitcoin is on the brink of a massive software upgrade named taproot taproot is the most highly anticipated software upgrade for bitcoin since a previous upgrade in bitcoin named segway in 2017.
taproot which started as developed in january 2018 is nearing its activation if successful this software upgrade will improve the privacy of bitcoin and also make transactions more efficient in order for the tab root upgrade to occur ninety percent of the blocks used to mine bitcoin need the signal that they need the tap root upgrade this milestone has already been passed as the current signaling ratio is at roughly 98 much higher than the 90 that is required this new upgrade solidifies the idea that bitcoin is continuing to innovate to pass environmental and privacy challenges in addition i also covered in a previous video how cathy thinks that utility companies with excess energy will enter the bitcoin mining industry which may settle down the energy concerns associated with bitcoin these factors will ultimately lead bitcoin's price to rise as we exit the capitulation phase now am i saying 35 000 is the low you know if traders uh and there are a lot of speculators in in bitcoin if they are uh running for the hills just because uh bitcoin has broken through a moving average that is important to them it could continue but all of our indicators are saying this is capitulation right now do you have a low point on your model for bitcoin no these metrics uh are are more a measure are we in a truly capitulation phase okay and it's very detailed yasin uses on-chain analysis which this is the only asset where you can see exactly who's doing what when why and how and all of those metrics are saying this is a capitulation this is as as bad as it got during the corona virus crisis just like kathy wood i strongly believe that our current times are a great opportunity to continue investing for the long term since it's also the beginning of the month now be a perfect time for you to join my patreon if you haven't already on patreon i share my buy and sell alerts my brand new 25 000 portfolio which i have a goal of reaching 100 000 dollars my main stock portfolio my watch list stock market updates and valuation spreadsheets our community is growing fast and during these uncertain times i believe it's crucial to understand the strategy is necessary to maintain consistent growth in your portfolio if you're interested in growing your portfolio alongside mine or if you're just curiou with that being said
Comments 0