저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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결론: ARK 투자 상품은 인플레이션 둔화 시 반등할 것이라는 캐시 우드의 견해가 핵심이며, 단기 전망은 인플레이션 경로에 달려 있다. 거시 환경: 연준이 2022년 채권 매입 종료와 금리 인상, 대차대조표 축소로 유동성을 회수하고 있어 고밸류 성장주에 부담이 된다. 채권금리 상승이 혁신기업의 차입비용을 높인다. ARK 부진 원인: 알고리즘 트레이더가 현금 쿠션이 얕고 밸류에이션이 높은 성장주를 일괄 매도해 가치주로 순환매가 일어났다. 줌, 텔라닥은 고점 대비 약 70% 하락한 상태다. 인플레이션 둔화 신호(중고차): 맨하임 중고차 지수가 연 60% 상승 정점 대비 최근 월 -1.2%로 하락 전환했고, 중고차 재고는 평년 43일 대비 54일로 증가했다. 소비 신호: 미시간대 소비자심리지수가 코로나 저점 수준으로 하락했고, 실질 소매판매는 11월 기준 사실상 정체 또는 감소했다. 재고 신호: 도매·소매 재고가 급증해 3분기 GDP 성장이 대부분 재고 축적에서 나왔다. 이는 향후 가격 인하 압력을 시사한다. PMI: 구매관리자지수가 약 4% 하락했고 지불가격 지수는 62로 예상(70후반~80)보다 크게 낮았다. 여전히 50 이상이라 가격은 오르고 있지만 둔화가 빠를 것이라 본다. 리스크: 공급망 부족이 지속되면 ARK ETF가 더 하락할 수 있다. 캐시 우드 본인은 IRA의 절반 이상을 ARK 펀드에 투자하고 있으며 확신이 매우 높다고 밝혔다. 출연자 전망: 혁신 기술 간 융합이 폭발적 성장을 가져올 것이라 장기 낙관, 단기는 인플레이션 경로에 따라 반등 여부가 결정된다고 봤다.
다듬은 글
Arc invest is experiencing the worst downturn in the company's history arc's Flagship ETF is down roughly 40 in the past year while the S P 500 is up almost 25 percent that is a frightening gap for Arc investors the reason for this underperformance ultimately ties down to the macro economy if these factors are not reversed or at least resolved Arc invest will continue to crash even more this video will explain what those factors are and what Kathy Wood herself has to say about Arc invest's downturn the Federal Reserve has totally failed on all accounts in regards to saving America's economy after Fed chair Jerome powerprinted exorbitant sums of money during the pandemic equities and consumer prices accelerated to all-time highs now the Federal Reserve is doing the exact opposite of that the FED is Now quickly retracing its previous decisions and will soon pull out money from the economy by mid-march the FED estimates that it'll no longer be purchasing bonds also known as quantitative easing starting from there the FED will be reducing its balance sheet by selling bonds and raising interest rates in simpler terms the FED turned on the money printer in 2020 and 2021 but now in 2022 the FED will be using a vacuum to suck back a significant amount of that money this will almost certainly negatively impact the economy in the short term which is already being priced into the current valuations this is because when the FED sells bonds bond yields must increase increasing interest rates are problematic for Innovative companies because Innovative companies need to constantly borrow money to continue growing higher interest rates mean that the cost of borrowing is more expensive which would be detrimental to Innovative companies bond yields recently increased and investors only expect these yields to increase even more because of that Arc invest related stocks are continuing the crash week after week so the question is when will this turmoil stop so that Innovation will rebound the answer centers around inflation if the federal traction leads Innovation to quickly decelerate it's extremely likely that the FED will revert back to quantitative easing which is when the FED purchases Bonds on the flip side if inflation continues to accelerate to new highs the FED will have to either stick to its existing game plan or be even more aggressive with this retraction so in simple terms if inflation cools down then the money printer will likely turn back on which would benefit Arc invest on the contrary if inflation heats up the money vacuum will stay leading Arctic crash even more Kathy Wood believes that the first scenario will happen for a variety of reasons but first I want to address their explanation as to why Arc is crashing so much algorithmic Traders have been pricing in the second scenario that we talked about which is that inflation is going to continue to stay at elevated levels many investors assume that algorithmic Traders make market prices more efficient but the complete opposite actually happens during the beginning of the pandemic algorithmic Traders are focused on shorting companies that were burning money and also had a low cash cushion these algorithms broadly work but not for certain sectors for instance genomic stocks fit those characteristics and would therefore punished heavily however any logical human being would know that genomics companies were going to be part of the solution to the pandemic this led genomic stocks to Rally a month after being initially punished Kathy believes went exactly the same situation but with almost all Innovative stocks algorithmic Traders are punishing stocks that are deemed as riskier and are rotating to Value because of inflation fears and Rising interest rates some of these characteristics include High valuation multiples minuscule profits declining Revenue growth and Low Cash cushions two of arc's highest conviction stocks that follow these characteristics are Zoom intellidock both of these stocks are getting absolutely destroyed as they are both down roughly 70 percent from their highs teledoc is arc's second largest position and Zuma's arc's fourth largest position investors liking these two stocks attack companies during the.com bubble but Kathy thinks they are totally wrong she believes that the.com bubble was premature in that the dreams of that time are becoming real now the dreams back then so the internet was quite transformative and led to the cloud and artificial intelligence we are living in the reality that that dream started and this reality has companies like teledoc and zoom just to give you a sense of the contrast here you know teledoc has about 2 billion in sales its revenues have gone up four-fold since the beginning of the coronavirus and we don't think that its revenues are going to go down what we're seeing in the market is a focus on year-over-year momentum and the the comparison that we're going to see and this is the last of the really tough comparisons zoom's Revenue one year ago fourth quarter was up 370 percent and uh in this fourth quarter of the quarter they will report soon we believe and their guidance is that that Revenue will be up 19 to 20 percent think about that on top of 370 percent up 19 to 20 percent and that's probably the low point of its growth rate we believe or zoom's Revenue growth is going to accelerate from there we covered what the macroeconomic landscape is and how that is causing Arc invest to crash but when is this crash going to end once inflation begins to cool down Arc will most likely rebound significantly Kathy believes that several signals are showing that inflation could decelerate substantially within the next few months the traditional Finance media is not covering any of these indicators that Kathy is looking at which essentially brainwashes investors into thinking that inflation must continue to accelerate the first indicator is used car prices the Mannheim used vehicle value index has been used as a tracker for used car prices by economy and financial analysts for decades this index spiked up significantly during the pandemic but recent numbers are showing that the bubble may be bursting soon the index previously increased at a 60 annual growth rate at its peak but prices have recently begun to decline at 1.2 percent month over month that is a major turnaround which is a signal that perhaps inflation is more transitory than people might think consumers have begun building their own inventory of used vehicles and this inventory momentum can't keep up its Pace forever I think this is the most fascinating part of what's going on in the economy right now the Mannheim used car index has been screaming I think the prices of used cars at their Peak had increased on a year-over-year basis something like 60 percent and that was adding to the CPI well very interestingly we've had a few reports now that suggest that the bubble was in used cars and that it might be bursting we can see this a few ways on a year-over-year basis now used car price uh used car sales units are falling they're down four percent uh November to December they were flat but year over year that was down uh four percent we're seeing prices finally start to fall they were down 1.2 percent month to month again annual that's a big decrease uh month to month annualized roughly 12 percent on a year-over-year basis they're still up 46 percent but they have started to fall and what tells us that they will continue to fall and mind you they've had a disproportionate impact on the CPI what what tells us they will continue to fall is now an inventory build up in the used car space normal inventories for used cars are I believe 43 days now they're at now they are at 54 days so well above average and I believe at their lows they were in the 20-day Supply Range now many people are looking at the hike in used car prices and they've probably been thinking about selling that car and that extra car maybe that they bought to avoid mass transit during the coronavirus if they see prices coming down they probably will move a little more quickly the second indicator that Kathy is watching closely is consumer sentiment consumer prices are increasing at an extremely quick rate but that doesn't necessarily mean that there is high consumer demand inflation is mainly being caused by low Supply rather than high demand Supply chains are failing to meet the existing consumer demand but that demand is already starting to fall retail unit sales are only increasing at a rate of 0.3 percent month over month which is not in line with the consumer price increase of 0.77 month over month this means that the spending power of the consumer Zoomers is not in line with the price increases that sentiment is perfectly demonstrated by the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment index which is rapidly dropping to new lows consumer sentiment is down to levels that we last saw at the depth of the coronavirus both in November and December now that's a very important part of the time of the year for the consumer to be feeling unconfident because it's the biggest selling season of the year and so that we believe has become a problem we have numbers for November retail sales were down zero point I mean they were up 0.3 percent but when you take inflation out what did real spending do so what what was unit growth in retail it was down 0.3 percent if you annualized that that's about three and a half percent at a really important time in the year if you retail sales are mostly Goods if you add in Services um you see that real consumption in total goods and services uh was flat again very important time of the year and a time also when we thought this pent-up demand for services would cause a burst in service consumption we didn't see it so that that is one indicator saying us telling us something is not right out there in addition to the used car bubble popping and consumer sentiment weakening the US GDP is also pointing towards a massive buildup in inventories the gross domestic product or GDP measures a total amount of goods and services sold in the country the U.S GDP has been increasing recently which sounds great on the surface however the entire GDP growth was from businesses purchasing new inventory that isn't even being sold wholesale inventories and Retail inventories are accounting for the entire GDP growth which has serious implications if businesses are building up their inventory that is not being sold then prices will have to decrease in the third quarter of last year real GDP was up 2.3 percent it was a big disappointment relative to expectations but what the headlines did not feature and I and still are not featuring is that practically all of that growth went into inventories it wasn't sold real fine no sales were were up a tenth or maybe two tenths so even in the third quarter now remember that's reaching back to to June uh even in the third quarter inventories were starting to build at a time when everyone was talking about supply chain problems and uh I think what were we were beginning to see is the consumer getting quite upset that Necessities the prices of Necessities uh were escalating and destroying purchasing power uh so so that's interesting now what gets even more interesting is watching the inventory numbers in the fourth quarter uh wholesale inventories in October were up something like two and a half percent two to two and a half percent now that's month to month that's not year over year annualize that and we're talking about 25 to 35 percent increase in inventories remember this is when supply chain issues were causing all kinds of shortages uh and then again in November wholesale inventories up 1.2 percent again double digit rate annualized part of the reason is consumption was was not playing ball and then you look at retail inventories in November up two percent that's month to month annualize annualized 24 plus uh so this is this is something I don't think the headlines have captured you might be surprised uh to hear it as well the last important metric that Kathy is watching is the purchasing manager's index or PMI in short form the purchasing managers index is a survey done by top purchasing and Supply Executives in the country this index recently declined by almost four percent month over month which is showing that the purchasing power of consumers is rapidly declining um and the other December statistics that we got besides Autos um uh are the pmis uh the total PMI and PMI for services both of them came down and prices paid in the purchasing managers index came down a lot more than uh people were expecting uh it was I think the expectation was somewhere around high 70s 80.
this is a diffusion index instead it was 62. now that still means prices are up because they're still above 50 that diffusion index uh but coming down we think pretty fast we've talked about many indicators showing that inflation could slow down in the future if those indicators are overcome by other factors like a continued Supply shortage RX ETFs could easily crash even more however Kathy definitely has a lot on the line Nancy clearly has a lot of conviction in ark's recovery she actually recently disclosed that over half her Ira is currently an Arcane vest so she's certainly has skin in the game I want you to know that we're in there with you uh between the company and Arc funds which are more than half of my IRA um and the the significant potent uh percentage of my total net worth um we're all in and my conviction couldn't be higher that the Innovation that has been evolving and was accelerated coming out of the coronavirus crisis is Unstoppable and the convergence between and among the 14 different technologies that we are researching that they are on that convergence is underway now and is and is causing and will continue to cause explosive growth really the likes of which we haven't seen in our lifetimes so there you have it why Arc invest keeps crashing and what will be necessary for Ark to rebound let me know if you think Kathy is right about her short-term predictions are you selling holding or buying arcs ETFs if you enjoyed this video please hit the like button and subscribe and I'll see you in the next one
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