저자: RaamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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인도 경제 5조달러 달성 가능성과 장기 복리 투자 철학을 강조한 발표. 결론: 인도는 5조달러 GDP를 2025~26년경 달성할 가능성이 매우 높고, 투자자는 성장 카테고리 내 승자 기업을 장기 보유해야 한다. 거시 전망: 인도 GDP는 2008년 1조달러, 현재 약 2.8~2.9조달러. 원래 추정으로 2024년 4.1조, 2025년 4.5~4.6조였으나 5조는 2026년경 도달 전망. 정책 여건과 글로벌 순풍에 따라 1년 정도 앞당겨지거나 늦어질 수 있음. 1인당 소득 증가에 따라 재량 소비가 급증한다고 설명. 투자 전략: 성장과 통합(consolidation)이 동시에 일어나는 산업에 투자. 통신(3사 과점) 예시. 자동차 보급률(2.2%) 등 성장 여지를 근거로 제시. 승자 카테고리와 카테고리 리더를 선택하는 포트폴리오 구성을 권장, 리더 기업은 다소 비싸다고 언급. 복리와 장기투자: 72의 법칙, 25% 복리 10년 10배, 30년 약 87배 예시. 버핏의 장기 복리 사례 소개. 인도 기존 산업(은행, 보험, 자동차, NBFC, 주택금융)도 25~30% 성장 가능하다고 주장. 변동성: 포트폴리오 50% 급락도 정상이며 깊은 조정은 불가피. 자신의 투자 경력(1990년 대비 2008년 등 여러 차례 폭락과 회복) 사례 공유. 시장 타이밍보다 시장에 계속 머무는 것을 강조. 경영진 기준: 경영진이 기업 성과의 90%. 정직하고 역량 있는 경영진을 찾아 투자하라고 권고. 인도는 소유와 경영이 일치하는 경우가 많아 사기꾼 경영진 리스크를 강조. 증권 교육 비판과 'Rule 1: 돈을 잃지 말 것' 언급. 리스크: 사기 경영진, 과열된 리더 기업 밸류에이션, 대규모 조정 가능성.
다듬은 글
Mr agraval on stage please ladies and gentlemen a round of applause for Mr ramdev Agarwal good afternoon friends uh there's a lot of talk about uh5 trillion and this entire conference is uh whether we are going to achieve 5 trillion dollar not so uh actually I'm the guy who wrote the first report on next trillion dollar opportunity in 2008 and uh you know that in 2008 India achieved for the first time a trillion dollar GDP and just for your reference us achieved a trillion dollar status in 1970 and China achieved that trillion dollar status in 1998 and then Germany of both the countries and more particularly the China Post 98 what really happen in next 20 30 years that we know of and now I think the world has enough of China the world is waiting for India to happen so now how India shapes up sorry hello yeah sorry so this is how does it work this is next it's not working yeah so India took 60 years between 1947 and 2007 to achieve a trillion dollar India was complete Basket Case when we got the independence probably 99.9% of the population must be below poverty line in 1985 when I started my career in Market uh 95% of the population sorry 85% of the population was below poverty line now this number is about 22% so India's journey I mean we have we have passed through lot of big challenges Banks of CF 92 uh and all all sorts of problem we have passed through and we have reached about 2.7 2.8 depending on rupe dollar parity we are we are right now at about $2.8 22.9 trillion GDP right now so the journey of $5 trillion Ian as per this original estimate we were supposed to reach 4 point in in 2024 4.1 and 2025 more like 4.5 4.6 trillion and 5 trillion will definitely happen in uh 26 and if we if our policy parameters some Global tail winds come along maybe a little earlier or maybe a year later there is absolutely no doubt I mean I think 99.9 % we will hit 5 trillion maybe in 25 or maybe 26 what it does what is more important is not whether we'll achieve 5 trillion we'll achieve five we'll achieve 10 we'll achieve 15 the issue is what exactly it means for people like us as an investor and as businessman so what happens is this is the basic logic you just get this that's where the trillion dollar has an opportunity what happens when you ,000 per capita income your Essentials are $900 and discretionary is $100 when you go from $1,000 per capita to $2,000 per capita your Essentials remain same and your discretion go from 100 to 1,000 so what is a doubling of doubling of GDP your discretionary spend is 10x 5x 10x depending on the category if you are producing Mercedes it will be 20x but if you are producing motorcycle maybe just about 2x if you if you maruti or or uh popular car maker it might be you know it might be 6X 7x so it depends where exactly of the Pyramid of discretionary you stand so how do you how do you make money in the stock market I mean this is the way uh you have to position your portfolio you have to find winner categories what is most important to figure out if you have faith in the future because you have to be an optimist in stock market when you come you have to come with a absolute Die Hard optimism if you if you have uh weak nerves or if you have a skepticism whether we are going to go there or not I don't think you are cut for stock markets because you are going to make money only if the companies grow you don't make money if the companies don't make money companies have to make lot of money and companies will make lot of money only if the econom is grow or underlying environment which where they make money so you have to find the winner categories which are the businesses which become very very large and within those businesses which are the leader leader companies so winner categories and category winners they are looking very expensive right now you know for sure which categories are going to win but in those categories the leaders are bit expensive right now but still I think building a portfolio of category winners and and sorry winner categories and category winners is the way to go to build a portfolio for the next 5 7 10 15 years I mean we have tried to bring a framework of the companies or categories how do you figure out you have to find a category where there is a growth and consolidation you need both to make lot of money you need lot of growth but lot of consolidation say the wheat consumption will grow but there is no wheat producer who is going to supply 40% of India's wheat requirement but Telecom is going to grow a lot but there were only there are only three players left and even third is in question right now so there is from 17 you have come to three and from 3 to two you can imagine what kind of money they going to make I mean they they I mean they're actually losing a lot of money right now but the possibility stock market is valuing them very rich because they're expecting massive growth and massive consolidation and hence huge amount of profits that's how bulk of the wealth has been created all over the world find a nich where you can dominate so wherever the industry and in India everything will grow even match boxes will grow but do you have consolidation for making money once you find a n like say car car will become very large like you China does 25 30 million cars we do about 3 million cars and we are thinking that whether whether we are we have come to an end just because this little slowdown so it is not going to come to an end people are not going to go to going on bicycle to their offices or going in City on bicycles and there's not enough Ubers even Uber needs a car so I think at 2.2% yesterday you must have heard as bhaga at 2.2% penetration 22 costs 5,000 I think we are we are not I mean either it's a basket country or we are talking about a country which is going to grow if it is going to grow you are going to see this country also achieving as much as what China has achieved China is doing 25 30 million cars right now now it is Unthinkable whether that kind of number will come because right now we are struggling with 3 million itself so we are so much colored by current short-term slowdown that we are not able to Think Through what can happen in next 10 to 15 years so how do you exploit apart from consolidation and growth how do you exploit so you have to believe in the power of compounding uh what happens is that compounding everybody is heard but I mean I have gone world over I have gone to the best of the institutes most of the people they don't understand power of compounding it I mean how do you calculate it everybody has heard about it but uh at the rate of rule of 72 everybody knows that 72 divide by number of years you get the rate you divide the 72 by percentage you get the number of years in which it will double but when I ask somebody at the rate of 25% in 10 years a rupe will become how much it will become 9.3 say about 10 but the same 10 Rupees I mean that at the rate of 25% in 10 years it becomes 10 times but in 30 years it will not become 30 times it'll become 87 times thousand times so what is important is to in cash on this exponentiality in India the opportunity the $5 trillion is not a destination it's a milestone if it is if you think it is destination sell everything you have in your portfolio sell everything so it is a just a milestone we are going to go much F at least the that's what we believe Market is only about the today's opinion today's price tomorrow's opening is tomorrow's price so today we think we are going to go to 10 15 20 it's a journey which continues so in that situation this is one place where even in Old businesses like Banks Insurance cars uh you name it nbfcs or housing finance companies you still get 25 30% growth and you can get this kind of growth for uh 25 30 years and hence you can make lot of money investing in conventional businesses in India so remember the power of compounding that it works wonderfully well in the long run and uh uh unless you invest for long run the the your irar is not going to be very high this is the Buffett's how Buffett built up from literally nothing uh in 85,000 times in 58 years that is a 22% kager he's right now struggling at about 10 12% but uh the way he was going when he was young in uh 1950s 60s '70s this this is how he built his uh he was at the age of 24 this is the age and then he was at the age of 24 so he was born in 1930 at the age of 24 means he was about uh 1954 he had $5,000 then at the age of 30 he had a million doll at the age of 40 that was 1970 he was $25 million and by the time he is 1990 he became first billionaire sometime in 1984 85 at the AG of 53 or 54 he became a billionaire and uh then from that 3.8 billion he became uh now it is 100 billion 125 billion he cannot count the money I mean he has $130 billion in cash he's getting $40 billion every year into his coffers but look at it he started from $5,000 and he has done at the rate of 22% this is this simple story of mine you know I mean this is India story that is all in us and everything but this has happened in India I started in ' 87 with literally nothing in 1990 I had a CR and then what happened was that in 1999 1990 when myself and mo we both started this company at that point of time it was the worst of the this thing slowdown uh it was a very bearish market and markets were in very bad shape uh the politics was in very bad shape there was a shooting of uh assassination of Mr Rajiv Gandhi and there was a no confidence and then country went into literally crisis Forex crisis where we had to send gold to uh Switzerland for getting $60 million line can you believe this I mean to get a 60 or maybe1 million uh Sovereign line we to send gold I mean today probably M can get a more than 100 line overnight that's the change of the situation that time our Forex cover Forex was just about 2 three4 billion and we have to take a structural adjustment loan of $5 billion from IMF today every week this country is getting $2 and half billion do of exchange approval we are sitting at $453 billion of uh cash pile which we don't know what to do so I think uh so this is a very different situation of the country and uh it's an tremendous opportunity I mean right now this slowdown is a fantastic opportunity look at the stocks where things are going to happen so in 1990 things were very bad and when we bought the membership what happened was that Hasa bullan happened and probably it happened only for us and then in so I had about 15 lakhs when the Hara Bull Run happened in next 18 months I made 30 Crowes and no speculation we made 30 cres in 18 months I mean there must be some guys who must have participated in the market so this is the nature of the market you cannot predict you cannot predict how big a storm is ahead of you you have to have faith this storm will come longer it waits bigger will be the storm I I'm quite sure about it so we made 30 crores we were very happy we we didn't know how many zeros are there in CR and then it crashed so that 30 became 10 then what happened 78 years we worked very hard there was no index nothing we used to buy the stock and uh stock used to go up we used to sell and we didn't know about the index and all then suddenly all the cable TV came NASDAQ came and people started talking about the indices so every day morning people used to get up and see the NASDAQ index and how markets happen then we started getting aligned with the global markets then before we could know there was a uh Tech Bull Run that was a Y2K and uh we had satam we had infosis we had vipro and we made tons of money at that point of time the 10 CR became 100 crores that was a turn of the century one1 2001 I had uh I had 100 crores then from there again it crashed it had to crash so it crashed to 30 crores then at 30 crores we thought that again 20023 was extremely bad I mean the first time two wheer production went down we actually had a proper recession in 20023 this all I have lived every day in 2003 what happened again this recession was there and then we thought that we are into wrong profession let's close it or do something else and then the mother of the Bull Run is started Market went up by 100x from my portfolio went from 30 crores to 550 crores I mean it just rocketed I mean you uh my company was a 10 CR company became a thousand CR companies it Pro physically by 100x in 4 years that was A Rush of foreigners I can keep telling the stories about what happened between 2003 to 2008 we would love to live 92 and 2003 to 2008 I think it is going to come I don't know when it is going to come so 2008 happened and then again it crashed it had to crash again so it crashed from 500 to 225 now this 225 in last 10 years has crossed more like 16 60 or 1700 this is the small savings part there's nothing to do with the company this is my personal mine and moti's personal savings which has grown to 1,700 and growing like this so what I'm saying is this is the power of compounding I have done at the rate of 28% kager for 30 years so this I'm telling you only to tell you there there is no making money in the stock market in a straight line first point second there is going to be deep Corrections in your portfolio if your portfolio is not correcting by 50% you are not in the market please take that so celebrate if you have 25 30% correction in your portfolio you are completely designed to make lot of money so it is going to happen it is nature of the market and this is how true if you run away now that I have incurred losses so let me run away and come some other day it you know you cannot do that 365 days means all 365 days you have to be in market I'll just give you a small incidence I was last month I went for vasna that is 11 days you know what happens you can't talk to anybody you don't know anything when plane was flying I thought there's attack on India so so you know that was the kind of ignorance you are in and then what happens after 11 days when I uh when I get connected with the world I called up my partner miti I said what happened how how are things he said boss you don't know the government has cut the taxes from 33% to 20 25% and markets have gone by 15 20% this is a contribution of me by doing PNA we can take the market by 15% so this is so much control you have on your portfolio and the outcome I'm telling you nobody all the Jokers who are coming here and talking nobody has any clue I can tell you this I'm sorry if I'm hurting anybody I hope it's not live so so you know stock market is a crazy place where it is not taught anywhere in the classes even in us they they make out that there's a well investing Forum in Colombia which is very famous they really teach the professor greenal is really good but is looking at them some other professors are trying but those props themselves cannot make money let me tell you they cannot make money they can teach you how to make money but they cannot make money and very few also stock market is the biggest pit I mean it's a $85 trillion game and uh and let me tell you very few people make serious money in the market there's lot of lure of making uh W 2 minutes only so I think I have H somebody so let me so uh just in two minutes we can do this uh rule number one don't lose money and rule number two so just rule number two of course don't forget rule number one but rule number one don't invest with the crooks India is full of crooks I'm telling you I'm me this well Christian study I'm going to release tomorrow you are going to see that see the point is for management competent management is 90% investing and in 90% the there are three things required let me try to figure out in 2 minutes let me do best yeah so management is 90% of the rule if you find an honest competent management bet on this don't ask anybody whether it's cheap or expensive bet on the guy because in India still ownership and management is same unlike in Us and other places so if the guy is a crook you are not going to make money for sure so you have to make sure first that guy is honest guy and then after that of course you have to see the competence whether he has the competence and the energy if he's competent and lazy that also doesn't work because India is very compettive Place everybody's uh everybody is very hungry to become rich and that to very quickly and in the process most of them are dishonest so you have to find those exceptional 1% 2% and honest guys and if you invest with them you are going to do very well thank you very much thank you for sharing your insights as always Mr Ram Agarwal and I'm sure it's inspired
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