저자: 제이미다이먼 · 외국인
요약 보기
제이미 다이먼 JP모건 CEO는 인도의 성장 전망에 낙관적이지만 지정학 리스크, 고금리 장기화, 부채 문제에 대해서는 신중한 입장을 보임 인도 낙관론: 인도 인구·정부 정책(디지털 신원, 세제 단순화, 외국인직접투자 확대, 인프라 프로그램)과 중국 리스크 회피 수요가 맞물려 인도 전망에 대한 낙관은 정당하다고 평가 JP모건은 인도에서 직원 6천 명에서 6만 명으로 늘었고, 기업금융 고객은 확대 중이며, 향후 20년간 사업이 두 배로 성장할 것으로 전망 인도 채권지수 편입: 약 250억 달러 유입 예상(JP모건 내부 추정)이며 점진적으로 매수될 것. 지수 편입은 자본시장 신뢰도의 긍정적 신호라고 평가 미중 관계 및 지정학: 우크라이나 전쟁이 에너지·식량·이주 등 글로벌 관계 전반에 영향을 주고 있음. 미국은 중국 관계에 진지하게 접근해야 하며 중국을 과대평가할 필요는 없다고 봄. 공급망 재편(반도체, 희토류, 에너지)은 영구적 흐름이며 디커플링이 아니라 흐름의 변화로 봄 거시경제 전망: 고금리 장기화(higher for longer)는 성장과 물가가 안정되면 괜찮지만 스태그플레이션은 나쁨. 재정 부양과 통화 부양이 만든 '설탕 과잉' 효과가 줄어들 것. 고유가·고금리 가능성에 대비해야 한다고 조언. 확률은 연착륙이 더 높다고 봄 부채 및 리스크: 정부 부채와 재정 적자가 역사적 고수준이며 그 영향은 불확실. 지정학이 현재 가장 큰 리스크이며 제2차 세계대전 이후 보기 드문 상황이라 대응 플레이북이 없음 은행 규제: 바젤 등 자본 규제 개편 제안에 대해 비용편익 분석과 투명성이 필요하며, 미국 은행에 국제 은행 대비 과도한 자본 요건(약 30%)이 적용된다고 비판. 모기지·신용의 은행 내외 배치 및 분산 문제도 제기 AI: JP모건은 AI 관련 인력 1,000명, 300개 활용 사례 보유. 하루 10조 달러 이체에 AI 시스템이 관여. 인류에 큰 이익이 되겠지만 일자리 충격에 정부가 대비해야 하며 악용 리스크도 있음
다듬은 글
Hello and welcome to the global dialogue. I'm Shireen Bhan and joining me now is JP Morgan's Jamie Diamond. Thanks very much for joining us here and welcome back to India. It's great to have you back. This is your first visit since the pandemic. I I'm thrilled to be back. Uh it's unbelievable and so every time I come here, I love coming to India.
And your visit has coincided with the big event that we were all waiting for, highly anticipated, India's inclusion into the JP Morgan emerging market index. uh you know so you timed it appropriately didn't you? Yeah, perfect. I think it's a great sign they're in the index and uh Yes. So, you know, let's talk about India since you are here.
What's been the impression since this is your first visit post the pandemic? We've just finished hosting the G20. There's a lot of focus and attention on India and its potential as well as the economy. What's your first impression of being back here? First of all, I love coming here. I've been coming here since 2005.
We've gone from 6,000 employees to 60,000 employees. They travel the world and they weren't it's not call centers anymore. It's it's everything technology, analytics, cyber. Uh it it's extraordinary. Tomorrow I go to a new Mumbai center with 10,000 people. Uh uh and then look at this conference. I remember eight years ago or 9 years ago when it started was like 50 or 75 clients.
Now it's 700 investors from around the world. You know 70 companies or 100 companies presenting. I think the optimism about India is actually completely justified. Mhm. But what do you believe is driving that optimism today? What would be the the two or three things that uh you believe are driving the confidence and the optimism in the India story today?
Well, first of all, I think I think Modi's been doing a very good job and things like Adar to get bank accounts for 700,000 people simplifying taxes uh you know trying to open up more for foreign direct investment the national infrastructure program but just think of your universities here. So we're not the only bank here.
There are lots of other banks with a lot of people but so is Accenture, McKenzie and obviously you have your local you know Tata etc. So those things are driving optimism. It's not just because of the complication with China. I think that's an opportunity. I think some of this opport would some of this optimism would have been there anyway.
So given the opportunity that you see in India, what is that going to potentially mean now for your plans for India? You talked about how JP Morgan's grown here in India both in terms of the size of the business as well as the headcount. What could we expect from here on? Yeah, I think it would be more of the same, you know, and go to the corporate side, investment banking side of our business.
We used to cover 10 or 20 companies here and we did research on them. Now we cover, you know, 150 plus, you know, we used to bank 20 or 30 multinationals coming to India. Now we bank I'm going to say 500 multinationals. We help multinationals and also we bank all Indian companies in London, Singapore, America, you know, as we help them finance or buy and do M&A.
So my guess is next 20 years that'll just double again. Uh just a quick uh followup on the inclusion into the bond index and there's all kinds of estimates on what that could mean in terms of inflows into India. Anywhere between 25 to40 billion is the estimate over the next year and a half as the inclusion works its way out.
Typically what's been the previous experience of a country being included in the bond index? What are the implications in the medium to long term? Yeah. So our folks think it'll be about 25 billion. It get you know it has to be bought. So it gets bought over time but I think it's a wonderful thing when you index like that what it means about your capital markets your rule of law your transparency your government financing the the indirect effect is more important you know what you want is capital foreign direct investment both you know in plant and uh uh equities and things you know innovative companies stuff like that so it's just one more very positive sign uh speaking of signs I want to understand from you what your key takeaway is about China at this point in time you were there in May and you said that the outlook that you had on China was cautious when you talk about the riskrewards at this point in time.
How do you feel about China today and do you believe that we're done with the unraveling as far as the real estate sector is concerned or far from it? Yeah. Well, I think the far more important you know to me this Ukraine war, oil, gas, food, migration, it's affecting all global relationships very importantly the one between America and China.
I think it America takes this very seriously. I'm not quite sure the rest of the world does, you know, to have a European democratic nation invaded under the threat of nuclear blackmail. Uh, and I think there's been a good response, but it's going to it's going to affect all of our relationships until somehow the war is resolved.
Um, and India is going its own way. You know, they've made their priorities quite clear about national security and what that means. You know, we're still there and obviously I'm an American patriot, so governments are going to set foreign policy, not JP Morgan. Uh, but I'm hap and I I think Americans should stop thinking that China's a 10- foot giant.
Our GDP per person is 80,000. Theirs is 15. We have all the food, war, and energy we need. We've got the unbelievable benefits of free enterprise and freedom. Uh, you know, they're going to have their own issues. I'm not making fun of them. They are going to have their own issues about demographics and energy and, uh, climate, etc.
I like the fact that the Americans are engaged with them now. Tony Blinken, Johnny Yellen, Jake Sullivan, and There are legitimacy around national security, unfair trade. I hope to resolve them. You know, we don't have to be hostile about it. There are going to be changes. It is definitely not over yet.
So, more engagement is what you would like to see. More engagement. And I understand it's going to cause more what you call a little bit. It won't be an unraveling. I think it'll just be a change of flows over time about certain trade investment type of things. And by it's not just America. Every country is reooking in its na what is national security?
Do I have reliant energy lines? Do I need semiconductors in China? Where do I get my rare earths from? That the world is Ukraine woke everyone up to that and that's a permanent state of affairs. Now, you know, the pandemic started to wake everybody up and then Ukraine accelerated this wake up call, so to speak.
What are the long-term implications of what you're seeing play out as as foreign policy changes as national security weighs on economic and government decisions? Uh you know the the the US is rolling out the chips act for instance India is trying to partner with the US to ensure that we have a partnership as far as chips are concerned.
How do you see this impacting flows? How do you see it impacting globalization moving forward? Yeah, I I think it's just going to change it. So I don't think it's going to people say decoupling. There's still globalization. The nations are going to have to companies and nations are going to be making determinations which change those flows.
That creates huge opportunity I think huge opportunity for India you know for services and certain manufacturing and and uh and it creates risk. So I I'm hoping that political leaders sit down have these conversations and make these changes in a way that's not completely disruptive but is dwarfed by the risk of war and nuclear proliferation and things like that.
So I think we have to be very cautious about it. But it's an opportunity for India and hopefully you're going to seize it. I also think by the way it's affecting global relationships. Now India and America are natural partners. Now you have to be you know you're here so you're between Russia and China have to be kind of non-aligned but we're your best friend.
I mean anyone who doesn't think that through hasn't thought really carefully. Yes, we can we can see that. I mean, there's there's been a lot of back and forth between President Biden and Prime Minister Mod and I and I'm I'm thrilled that they're having those conversations and and I think we got to do a better job on the trade and investment side.
Okay. Not just the labor and and uh when you say when you say better job on the trade and investment side, what do you mean that we we should sit down with India and negotiate better trade and investment relationships to open up more markets to both sides. you know chi India can let some more competition in here we can bring in more capital and both of it so I remember talking to some Indians you know after some of those negotiations it's really great but what about trade you like us a lot but what about trade fair enough but you know since you were talking about risks let let's talk about what's happening as far as the US is concerned and I was having a conversation with Larry Summers over the weekend and he says look uh he doesn't believe that higher for longer is necessarily going to be anti-growth because it fundamentally underlines the resilience uh that the economy seems to have.
But you're you know you're you're you've been cautioning everybody about don't just focus on today but worry about tomorrow. So what is tomorrow look like? Well I agree with Larry but he also is quite concerned about it. So you know if you have higher for longer but you got good growth and inflation is kind of contained that's good.
You just have more more fighting for capital and people paying up for capital and the world needs it. It needs it for remilitarization. The green economy, the IRA act, the chips act, huge deficit spending, but we need growth. If you actually have stagflation, that's not so good. So, I used to say right now it feels good that fiscal stimulation was extraordinary.
The monetary system was extraordinary. That was a global phenomenon, more in the United States than elsewhere. But that's a little bit of a sugar high and that's a little bit going to go away. And we hoping you you have a soft landing, but all these other things are there. QT, Ukraine, oil, gas this winter, um disruption of trade flows.
So, you know, I think good leadership on the part of, you know, America, India, China, Europe can make can make sure the negatives don't happen, but I I'm put myself in quite cautious category. Uh in the cautious category and you know, you just talked about the spending and I I I remember you said that we've been spending like drunken sailors.
So as as the party starts to wind down uh and you know tightening happens and interest rates continue to remain higher uh what do you believe are likely to be the the adverse shocks that the world is going to have to deal with? Debt of course is the big one and the debt burden I mean you know large continents like Africa dealing dealing with that at this point in time.
What will it mean for things like climate transition uh and the many other SDG goals that we have? Yeah, I think we got to not get confused around various calls. Unbelievable debt financing and high levels of debt around the world. We don't know the effect of that. And these deficits other than war probably been as high as they've ever been.
And like I said, with the highest debt level already. So I put that in the little sugar high category. Spending, government spending is inflationary. Governments can't just simply spend more and more money. I think it's not inflationary. But I don't know the effects of I mean, like I said, we could have higher rates, a slowdown, but inflation coming down and good growth.
I I think it's more likely than not, but you know, again, we I think people should be prepared for higher oil and gas prices, higher rates as a matter of just being prepared. You know, you and I can guess what it's going to be. You don't know. I don't know. No one knows. But I think the odds are higher than that.
And so, uh, you know, but hopefully we'll get to that. I I think the geopolitical situation is the thing that most concerns me and we don't know the effect of that in the economy and so I I but again I think that the humanitarian part that's far more important. I think it's also very important for the future of the free democratic world.
We may be at an inflection point for the free democratic world. That's how seriously I take it. So geopolitics the number one risk that you believe the world is facing today. Absolutely. We've dealt with inflation before. We've dealt with deficits before. We've dealt with recessions before. We haven't really seen something like this pretty much since World War II.
Yeah. So, we don't have a playbook for this just yet. There is no playbook. Yeah. Yeah. And so, we don't know what the intended and the unintended consequences of this will be. But let's talk about the banking sector in the US and especially after the crisis. We hope that it's behind us at this point in time.
Uh you're not particularly happy with the way that the regulator has decided to move and bring in norms as far as capital is concerned. uh and you believe that there should be more transparency in being able to deal with this. What are the implications of of those proposals going through? I I don't know.
I mean I I think that that is a great question like you know one of the things I think should take place is what do the regulators want? Do they want the mortgage business inside banks or outside? Do they want you know credit outside the banks or inside? Do they want diversification or no diversification?
So like some of these rules are anti-diversification, operating risk capital, GCIFI. Do you want American banks have the same requirements as international banks because right now it's 30% more and you know there should be costbenefit analysis, transparency, what we're trying to accomplish and you know and I hated to do it.
Everyone's going to be yelling screaming each other. I wish that would work was done beforehand. Now it'll probably take place and we'll see. You know they're going to do what they want to do. JP Morgan can't affect that. you know, they'll they'll hear, everyone's going to put in their comments and uh hopefully we end up in a good place.
My last question to you, AI and you believe that AI is going to be driving JP Morgan's future as well. It's critical to each aspect of your business. What are you doing about it? Yeah, we have a thousand people involved in it. AI is as real as they say. We have 300 use cases around marketing, fraud, risk.
When we move $10 trillion a day, it's going through AI systems. Every application, every job, every person will be affected. And remember bad guys going to use it too. So we have to like be ahead of the bad guys in terms of voice recognition how they use data to get and even for cyber and you know I and so I'm it's going to be great for mankind.
There may be some disruption. I think governments should be prepared to deal with the disruption but they can't stop AI. And the other thing about AI it could be around the world and bad guys can use it too. So probably a very big plus for mankind but I completely understand people's concerns about the bad side of it.
Well, Jamie Diamond, always a pleasure. Many thanks for joining us here on CNBC TV8. Appreciate your time. Thank you. Thank you so much. Good to have you here. Well, that's it then on this edition of the Global Dialogue from all of us here. Goodbye and many thanks for watching.
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