저자: EdYardeni · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 관세·그린란드 불확실성에도 미국 경제 회복력 강조, 기업이익 호조로 S&P500 상승 지속 전망. 2026년 S&P500 주당이익 약 310달러(2025년 약 275달러) 전망, 2029년 말 주당 500달러×PER 20배=10,000 가능성 제시. 연준 금리인하에도 장기금리는 상승 압력, 미국 10년물은 4.25~4.75% 수준이 정상화라고 주장.
다듬은 글
I think. Okay, so that's the take on what could happen back home. Our markets are expected to shape up, but once again shifting focus to the global view, let's get into conversation with Mr. Ed Yardeni, rdeni Research. Ed, I'm a good morning for us at least. Thanks so much for your time today. Um, talk to us about your take on everything that we've heard at Davos from Trump so far on the reversal of that tariff news, on his stance on Greenland that he hasn't changed too much, but yes, he seems to have softened on his uh NATO partners.
Talk to us about how that is expected to affect the global market. The US market did well for itself yesterday, but how sustainable is that move? Well, I think the important thing to to recognize is that uh in 2025 and now in 2026, uh both the US economy and the global economies have performed remarkably well in the face of uh a lot of the tariff turmoil that uh we've seen under the Trump administration.
I think the markets have uh kind of gotten used to the idea that a lot of the bullying and a lot of the bluster uh really is a negotiating tactic. It's the art of the deal and uh uh the ultimate uh goal is not to make things worse, but to get uh to get a deal. And uh in the current situation, it looks as though a framework of a deal, not a deal itself itself, but a framework of a deal uh was agreed to between Trump and the Secretary General of NATO.
Denmark, on the other hand, came right back and said uh they they they're they're not signing up for this framework. So, we still have a lot of uncertainty of where it's going to go, but I think the markets were very relieved to hear Trump say that he wasn't going to use military force to deal with this.
And I think the markets were also pleased to see that uh Trump was willing to postpone the tariffs on this issue. It's still an open issue, but not one that I think presents a real problem for the stock market to continue to advance. You're expecting Ed a double-digit return in 2026 as well. What's driving that thought process?
Because there's just so much uncertainty. How should one overcome that? And what what's keeping you bullish? Yeah, well, you know, I've been doing this for a long time. And what I've learned over the years is that you should never let politics get in the way of making good investment decisions. Related to that, I've learned that the US economy and stock market have done remarkably well despite Washington.
There's a lot of people working stiff like myself and others that you know, get up in the morning, go to work, and we do the best we can for ourselves, our family, our businesses, our communities knowing that Washington can sometimes help us and more often than not get in our way. And yet we still manage to go succeed very well.
So, I I think you have to have that kind of attitude to understand the markets. But what's particularly impressive is the resilience of the economy. There's been no recession. Well, I guess we had one at the beginning of the decade in in 2020, but it only lasted 2 months because it was a lockdown recession in the US.
But we haven't had a recession really since 2008-2009. So, the resilience of the economy in the face of all sorts of shocks is something that I think we can count on to also give us very resilient and strong earnings. And I expect that the current earning season for the fourth quarter of 2025 will be another blockbuster one with record earnings for the S&P 500.
And so, I think earnings continue to melt up. And that's what causes the market to melt up, which is a better way than on an evaluation basis. And you know, how do you look at the US 10-year yield? Because it's still at a high high level and despite the fact that we've seen on a slew of rate cuts coming from the Fed and and future Fed rate cuts are also expected, at least two in this year.
Um the mark the bond market are not you know, in sync with the kind of the rate cut cycle which has been uh going in going in the US. Yeah. Well, I've I've I've been opposed to what the Fed's been doing because I've been pointing out that the economy is resilient and that inflation is still at 3% not 2% and I didn't really see much need for the Fed to lower interest rates and I concluded that if the Fed wasn't going to listen to me and they didn't that the bond market would react in a way that would counter what the Fed did.
And so for example, in 2024 the Fed lowered the Fed funds rate by 100 basis points. And guess what? As we all know, nothing to guess, the bond yield went up 100 points. In the current situation last year we had 75 basis point cut by the Fed and the bond yield remains above 4% and seems to be moving higher.
So yeah, the bond market's not cooperating with the Fed cuz the bond market's expressing a different view of the strength of the economy and it looks very strong and resilient as well as on the persistence of inflation at 3% rather than 2%. I think the bond yield should be between 4 and a quarter and 4 and 3 quarters percent in the US this year, which would be back to normal.
That's where we were before the great financial crisis and those are kind of normal bond yields. It's not unusual to have short-term rates below bond yields, obviously. And given how we have begin the year, do you think this year will also be you know, guided by how Trump is going to react on various issues?
Because 2025 has been a year where Trump tantrums have decided how the markets have moved. Well, I think Trump has added a lot of volatility to the market, but the market has gone up and it's gone up in line with the earnings. And I I think that earnings are going to be something like $310 a share this year for the S&P 500 up from about $275 a share last year.
As a matter of fact, I think that we'll have no recession between now and the end of the decade and that the market by the end of the decade may be discounting $500 a share. A times a 20 multiple would get us to 10,000 by the end of the decade. I I think when when we look back on it, people will agree with a point I made back in 2020 that this could turn out to be the roaring 2020s.
So far, so good. We're 6 years into the decade and markets are at an all-time record high. Economy's at an all-time record high. Okay. And we'll leave it at that. Thank you so much for joining us this this morning, at least for us and giving us those thoughts and views. Well, clearly bullish.
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