저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
장기 재정 우려에도 주식 하락 가능성은 낮다는 낙관론 영상 레이 달리오의 미국 대붕괴 시나리오를 소개하며 미국 국채 부담과 장기금리 상승 우려를 정리한 뒤, 과거 금리 급등기 주식 성과를 근거로 그 위험을 낮게 평가함 미국 국채 잔액은 약 32조 달러이며 2026년에만 2조 달러 이상 차환이 필요하고, 이자가 세입의 약 30%를 차지하는 등 재정 부담이 크다고 설명함. 외국인 장기채 수요 감소와 무기화 우려도 언급함 달리오가 제기한 재정 우려에 대해 AI에 따른 생산성 혁명으로 부채 비율이 낮아질 수 있다는 CBO 시나리오를 소개하고, 발언자는 생산성이 연 5% 이상 오를 수 있다고 낙관함 1959년 이후 미국 장기금리 급등기 15차례 중 주식이 하락한 것은 4차례(1959, 1973, 1987, 2022)뿐이라고 주장함. 1973년 오일쇼크와 1987년 블랙먼데이는 현재와 조건이 다르다고 봄 2022년은 단기금리가 1년 만에 0%에서 5%로 급등한 특수한 충격이었으며, 현재 금리 수준은 그와 다르다고 설명함 장기금리 상승은 은행 대출 마진을 키워 경기에 꼭 나쁘지 않다는 견해를 제시함 미국 주식은 10년 중 8년, 20년 중 17년, 50년 중 41년 상승해 상승 확률이 80%를 넘는다는 통계를 근거로 제시함 S&P500과 나스닥은 고점 대비 5% 미만 하락에 그치고 기업 실적은 증가 중이라고 설명함. 200일 이동평균 같은 필터로 큰 하락을 피할 수 있다고 주장함 레이 달리오를 비롯한 매크로 비관론자를 비판하며 장기 비관은 투자 수익을 놓치게 한다는 입장임. 영상 끝부분의 구독·좋아요 권유도 포함됨
다듬은 글
Korean media or YouTube with their meager economic knowledge without investing a single penny end up failing because they overuse economic jargon to show off their meager knowledge. I am much more ignorant than Rayona or McCuro rascals, so I say that stocks usually go up. Long live the 4th week. Viva.
yes. Hello everyone. It is turmeric soup. Ray Dalio's Great Collapse Scenario. Let's take a look at whether this makes sense . Recently, Radario issued a warning while publishing an article titled "The Numbers Behind the Bark." For starters, it’s things like how light begets more debt . Well, even without a clear explanation of these graphs, you can see that U.S.
debt is increasing . It's steadily going up. It has risen to a level similar to that of the Great Depression during World War II . Uh, the outstanding balance of U.S. Treasury bonds is about 32 trillion dollars. We must carry out more than 2 trillion dollars in 2026 alone . And existing government bonds that are coming due also need to be reissued.
You have to borrow money and pay it back. However, if interest rates rise further, the interest burden will increase, potentially leading to a larger fiscal deficit . That's the gist of it. And AI companies are also marking fundraising these days. To build a data center. Uh, so the people buying those bonds can buy not only government bonds but also corporate bonds.
That was basically the story. So the situation is not good. It's like this. It seems certain that the environment is unfavorable for the long term. Demand for long-term products is decreasing, while supply is increasing. Because, especially foreigners from China and Japan, buy less or don't buy at all.
And overall, foreigners distrust long-term bonds, and the demand to buy short-term bonds has become much higher. It seems that a lot of magnetic material has been lost over the past few years . Over the next 30 years, we don't know how much inflation the U.S. will generate, and the assessment of the U.S.
as pragmatic is also weakening. And we realized during the Russian War that the United States weaponizes U.S. Treasury bonds . That is why the number of people buying US long-term loans is gradually decreasing. Well, and on the supply side, they have to issue more bonds to pay the interest . Then you have to pay more interest, which means you have to issue more bonds, and the vicious cycle is bound to repeat itself.
And the fundamental business of bonds is to borrow money to run the government, isn't it? However, we raised money by issuing bonds, and we have to use about 30% of it to pay interest. Only about 70% of the remaining amount can be used for government operations . It's very bad. It is serious. It's serious.
Furthermore, since companies are building data centers and sucking up the market, the U.S. government is in a very difficult position. It's not good. However, even if the long-term trend of U.S. interest rates is rising, it could move in the opposite direction in the mid-to-medium term. There was a similar story in '23 as well.
Inflation was severe, international supply was worrying, and things were going crazy. But back then, there was a case where it went up to almost 5% and then suddenly dropped to about 3.8% in just two months. So, as economic indicators came out weaker than expected, the interest rate outlook suddenly changed.
The funny thing is, the economy wasn't that bad after that . So, even if long-term fiscal problems remain, since there are always scenarios where bonds could skyrocket or interest rates could fall in the short term, you shouldn't think that the US is going to collapse. Okay, let's take a break now .
This can be very dangerous . But this is n't the main point. This is the main point. Wouldn't stocks be important? Now, however, there have been about 15 scenarios of skyrocketing interest rates in the U.S. over the past 60 years . Ah, it's been 70 years. Now, however, looking back a year later, the stock had gone up 11 times .
The stock price dropped only four times . The stock market dropped only in 1959, 1973, 1987, and 2022 . For the remaining 11 cases, stocks continued to rise despite the increase in interest rates . So, should we worry about the interest rate hike itself or not? yes . That is n't that threatening. Even if long-term interest rates rise.
I confirmed that it is not a huge threat to stocks. Okay, and 5% is high. Oh, wow. There are people who do that. Now, this is the history of U.S. interest rates. We look at long-term interest rates over about 100 years, starting from 1919. Now, 5% is roughly here, right? It's 5% here. Here, here, here is 5%.
Now, as you can see. From the late 1960s to the mid-2000s, long-term interest rates were naturally over 5% . So, the point is that now is not the time for the stylist to do it again. The 2010s were a bit strange. At that time, interest rates were too low. Naturally, if you borrow money from someone else for 10 years, wouldn't it be only natural to pay around 5% interest ?
That’s my opinion. I mean, how can he give 1% or 2% when borrowing money at a 10-year rate? He 's a thief, after all. Right? That makes no sense. And also. If you look at the 90s as well. Even though the 10-year average annual yield has risen from 8.6% to 5, 6, 4, and 7.1%, the US stock market has quadrupled.
So, it's not like 5% is an extremely high interest rate in absolute terms. I learned that since interest rates are low, even if they rise, it is not a significant threat to the stock market . Now, but why does the stock market hold up well even when interest rates rise? For one thing, the fact that interest rates are rising could be a signal that the economy is strong .
yes. And the gap between long-term and short-term interest rates is widening. Recently, long-term interest rates have risen significantly. Then, from the bank's perspective, it is easier to grant a loan . Because deposit interest rates are short-term, while loans are long-term . So, the larger that spread gets, the better it is for the bank.
Right? So, the fact that long-term interest rates are rising is not inherently a major disadvantage. Because if banks make a lot of loans, borrowers take them in, process them, and earn more profit, right? Therefore, the fact that long-term interest rates are rising is not inherently threatening to the economy.
This is the argument Kenfusho makes. So now they are providing a good supply of credit. Take out a corporate loan. Profits rise. Stocks are good. It's something like this. Now, however, I mentioned that the stock market fell in four of those 15 cases . So, we need to address this . Because, of all things, the year 26 might be similar to those four failed scenarios .
First of all, if you look at the year 1959. It was austerity and an economic recession, so the situation was even worse than it is now. Still, US stocks have never dropped. It did fall out . It dropped by about 2% . But they really weathered the tightening well without even a 10% drawdown in the middle .
As for 1973. There was hyperinflation, austerity measures, the Middle East war, and skyrocketing oil prices. So, in a way, you could say it is somewhat similar to the present . But people have been making a big fuss lately; if you take a look at the indicators from 1973. Oh my god, inflation is over 10%.
Huh, what was the interest rate ? Well, oil prices have skyrocketed fourfold. It was like this. So, if you look at the current fuss and the 1973 indicators . The situation was completely different. So, 26 years is not bad compared to 73 years . I'm in the middle of being cute. It is about three spits out.
And regarding Black Monday in 1987, it is true that rising interest rates helped to shift some of the burden onto stocks. However, the reason Black Monday occurred was not so much that, but rather that massive speculation took place, and level stocks were forcibly liquidated, causing the stock market to drop 27% in a single day .
So, Black Monday came, and while it is somewhat similar to 1926, the speculative capital that flowed into AI and semiconductor stocks already exploded in June . So, since it has already happened, we don't need to worry right now . That is why the three scenarios are definitely a bit different from now.
The last one remaining is 2022. That is 2022, the year that gave us interest rate trauma . Because we all remember this time. As interest rates rose from zero to 5%, the stock market plummeted, and the Nasdaq and KOSPI both slumped, remember? But back then. It is very different from now. Back then, the interest rate went up from 0% to 5% in just one year.
Short-term interest rates. And it was a scenario that the market had not predicted at all. Because everyone thinks, "Surely it won't go from 0% to 5%?" Hehe, that's what I said. So, it went from 0.25% in early 2022 to 5%, then to 4.5% by the end of the year, and reached 5.5% in July 2023. Looking at the numbers, that means it increased by more than 20 times.
Interest rates. The collection yield also rose from 1.5% in December 2021 to 4% in October 2022. This has also more than doubled. It was a huge shock. During the same period, the SP 500 dropped by more than 20% and the Nasdaq by more than 30%, and things like that . Now, but think about it . At that time, the interest rate went from 0% to 5%.
Right now, it's just hovering between 4% and 5%, or at most 6%—it's cowering . So, I'm really only raising it by this much. About this much . At that time, I raised it this much. And that too, this much, so rapidly. Even that was something no one could understand. So naturally, the market is falling.
Actually, right now, nobody expects interest rates to return to 3%, and everyone knows that fairly high rates will be maintained . I know, you know, and we all know. Right? So, can something like this really move the market ? I don't think so . So, interest rates went up again. Our macro rascals are excited.
There are many things in the world. It’s like saying you shouldn’t do that . In a way, since Rayo has joined in here, our little rascals must be thrilled. They quantitatively analyzed the US international market and even presented the impact on stocks in this way . yes? So, well, the long-term value is rising.
The bond is at a disadvantage. It will also have a negative impact on the economy and stocks. I've been talking about this for a while. And Radar Alio is not a macro slacker, but rather the god of the macro machine, practically a regent emperor. Because he has been running global macro hatchbacks for decades and has made a lot of money.
Now, let me define Necro-Kkaeng-kkaeng here. Experts who whine on the Korean media or YouTube with their meager economic knowledge while not investing a single penny in maps. Because they do say something. Well, actually, people are talking about interest rates and the U.S. this and that, but all I hear is just a lot of nonsense .
Ah, well, those damn macro-using punks just throw around economic jargon to show off their pathetic knowledge, but they end up failing miserably. The conclusion comes out like this. However, Radar Harrier's basic mindset isn't much different from these punks. I worry a lot about the world, thinking things won't go this way and that I'll end up ruined.
He keeps saying things like that. However, when I checked the facts, it turned out to be nothing special . That's what I do. As for Facto, I... It is said that stocks usually go up because Raid Aliona and McCuro are much more ignorant than the thugs . In such cases, there is one basic probability to remember before listening to the bearish tone.
The fact that stocks rise on an annual basis with a probability of over 80%. As for US stocks. It has gone up eight times in the last ten years . It rose 17 times in the last 20 years, 24 times in the last 30 years , and 41 times in the last 50 years . The rate of increase is over 80% . During this period, there were times when interest rates were good and times when they were bad, and times when inflation was high and times when it was low—there were many such times—but the conclusion is that Gwangju is over 80%.
So, regarding the weakness experienced in the macroeconomic environment... Their explanation is very elaborate, long, and plausible, but they exclude the greatness of capitalism . The economy is growing because 8 billion people around the world are currently racking their brains over how to make money, what products and services to develop, and how to develop technology .
Capitalism is great, and corporate stocks go up. Long live capitalism. yes. Because I am ignorant, I just refute it by saying that stocks usually go up. We present these statistics. And I am mostly right. I can hear the scurrying around. If you ask what is so pathetic about those stock market investors ...
For the first year out of 10, I was just going "ugh" as I hit it for the first time, and for the remaining 8 years, well, the stocks are going up now, but they're going to crash again soon. You worry in a certain way, send off the spirits, and then you do that until you die of worry. Please just go invest.
Even that relationship where you actually get beaten up. In the stock market, if you apply a filter like the 202-day moving average, you can avoid almost all of them . There is no need to worry . Now, the thugs will come out. Now, in the long run, the US is going to collapse. They say that AI could also be a solution to the debt problem .
Ray Dalio also acknowledged this in footnote 2 . Although you may have viewed your academic background as low, the potential for a productivity revolution and the rapid increase in productivity and income can reduce the burden of debt . If AI and humanoids emerge and GDP explodes, the current debt of 40% may seem high, but it might not be a big deal then .
yes. That is correct. So, regarding that CBO, even if productivity increases by only about 0.5% to 5% annually, the debt ratio could fall from 156% to 113% in 2055. But I'm not looking at 0.5%. In my view, I am someone who believes that productivity can increase by more than 5% annually through AI and human intelligence, rather than just 0.5% .
I'm an optimist. I believe that a scenario similar to the Industrial Revolution of the 19th century, where productivity explodes, GDP skyrockets, and debt naturally decreases, is entirely possible . I believe the possibility is high . Now, the basics are that you have to be an optimist . You just need to make judgments based on actual evidence and facts .
I heard Raid Alio's warning clearly. This person is not a slacker. He really is the king of macros . However, looking at the facts, the likelihood of a bear market closing soon is not very high . I admit that the U.S. fiscal and long-term difficulties, for example, the uncertainty of the long-term future, are not good.
However, stocks fall immediately after interest rates surge . Such scenarios rarely occur . Something happened to the stock only about 15 times out of 15. There were far more cases where that was not the case. Actually, even now. The SP 500 and Nasdaq have fallen less than 5% from their peaks, and corporate earnings continue to increase.
Of course, someday. The day will come when the macro punks get beaten up and the economy and stocks crash . But even on that day. Usually, the price drops below 2 pyeong. Then you can avoid that. Please do not worry and trust the 80% base scenario probability. yes. There is a saying. They say that critics win arguments but optimists make the money, but naturally, I will make the money and I will win the arguments.
Because stocks usually go up. I vote for that. You can put all those macro thugs to sleep . Ah, it was a very informative and positive video. So please subscribe and like. I really dislike it if you press 'I don't like it'.
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