Bitcoin WILL Be Hit The HARDEST | Chamath palihapitiya's Warning

요약 보기

양자컴퓨터가 5~7년 내 실용화될 가능성이 높아지며, 현재 SHA-256·ECDSA 기반의 비트코인 등 암호화폐가 양자 공격에 취약해질 수 있다는 위험을 경고. 비트코인 생태계 리더들이 양자 내성 대응책을 마련해야 하며, 대응이 늦으면 비트코인이 공격의 가장 쉬운 표적(honeypot)이 될 수 있다고 주장. 또한 소프트웨어(SaaS) 주식과 암호화폐 모두 AGI·양자 시대에 기존 가치가 재평가될 수 있다고 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. The thing that you have to do before you talk about what is happening now, I think it's probably useful to go back and you have to really start at the end of the great financial crisis. And I would just tell the crypto community, you have 5 to 7 years to get your in order. This market analysis is shaping up to be a serious wake-up call for all Bitcoin holders and investors.

02. As Chamath recently shared his latest outlook on the current state of the market. In a recent interview on the All-in podcast, they break down the biggest risk quietly building behind the scenes right now. Something most people are completely ignoring. And if this actually plays out, the consequences could be massive.

03. No exaggeration. Freeberg and the rest of the panel also share their insights on the current crypto landscape. If you already hold Bitcoin or are thinking about buying in, this is something you need to pay very close attention to right now. So, let's hear exactly what they have to say. The Bitcoin thing was interesting because I think in the last couple of months, what we've started to see is an increasing amount of research that says that the scheduled eventuality of a quantum chip, a functional chip, is probably not 25 or 30 years away.

04. It's probably now in the next 5 years if I had to guess. And I think that because that event horizon has moved in, in these next 5 to 7 years, for those that follow Bitcoin and care about it, my only advice on this topic is that the leaders of the Bitcoin ecosystem need to organize themselves and need to make sure that they have an answer to the question of is this stuff quantum resistant?

05. Because if the answer is no, they are a very visible and obvious honeypot. Now, there is the answer that then a lot of the Bitcoin community gives, which is well, everything is screwed. And my only advice is possibly. But if a non-state actor gets a hold of quantum technology that can defeat crypto as we know it today, SHA-256, you know, ECDSA, like the elliptical curve stuff, the run-of-the-mill stuff that we all rely on.

06. A non-state actor's incentive will first be to drain the obvious honeypots and then tell everybody that it's broken so that then everything goes to all the prices go to zero, and then they have all the money, and then they can buy stuff. That would be the sequence of events if you were a non-state actor.

07. So, yes, you're right, the banks get hacked. Yes, you're right, all this other stuff goes kaput. But I think you first go and you exploit the obvious places, and I think crypto is the most obvious honeypot in a world where you can defeat encryption. The crypto community, this was much, much earlier, had to deal with this.

08. They had to migrate from different encryption schemes in the early parts of Bitcoin, and they were able to self-organize. The difficulty here is you're talking about a big technological lift. You're talking about all the wallets being re-architected. You're talking about all the transactional flows, all the processing nodes.

09. These are complicated things that need to happen. And I would just tell the crypto community, you have 5 to 7 years to get your in order. You know, we we have an extraordinary number of the public who've invested in Bitcoin and Ethereum as number one and number two. And those projects feel maybe stagnant when compared to the dynamism of what I'll call, you know, the projects launched in the last three or four years.

10. Because they're at a different No, no, but you're talking about confusing. Again, this is what I mean. Those are layer one protocols, right? Meaning they are at the core substrate of how all of crypto is going to work. Then you have these other projects that build on top of these things in different ways or build around them.

11. So, my point is if you don't have if you don't want to take the time to understand which layer twos you want to own and which layer ones you want to own and why, I think you're much better off I I understand your point. My My point is ETF or something else because there are there are ways to own these things.

12. So, for example, David, David, Solana is does not need Ethereum to exist. So, my point is do we do we see a day when this, you know, the past decade has been about Bitcoin and Ethereum. Do we see a day when maybe people stop buying those and start buying these new ones? The first step was realizing, okay, we need to own Bitcoin.

13. Why? Because you know, there's now enough evidence where what, like a a decade or more than a decade into this, nobody has been able to essentially counterfeit a Bitcoin. It is, you know, new money. It is it is better money. So, if you believe So, I'm not going to convince people right now of the argument for Bitcoin, but if you believe in it, that's sort of the first step is you realize you really need to have 1 to 2% of your portfolio in Bitcoin in the event that fiat money sort of becomes debased and eventually move to crypto.

14. Then you realize, "Oh, wait a second, Bitcoin is just one application of blockchains. There's a bunch of applications of blockchains. So, maybe we need to own not just sort of, you know, digital money, but we also need to own the underlying blockchain platform." And that leads you to Ethereum. Then you realize that there's a bunch of competitors to Ethereum, and it's still very early days, and one of those guys might ultimately displace Ethereum as a blockchain platform.

15. Then you realize that there's all these applications on top of all these blockchains. And so, you know, the conclusion I come to after all of that is I can't figure all this out. And well, maybe I could if I was willing to go back to school and like make this a full-time job, which I just don't want to do.

16. I mean, I'm lazy, and that's why I focus on SaaS. Like, that's what I know as an investor. Yeah, like I'm not going to reinvent myself. Freeberg, quantum computing, just generally speaking, you feel it's going to have a major impact in the short term? Do you think it's actually going to become viable in the mid-term?

17. Where where where do you think about it? Because it's always been 10 years out, but it feels like we're making some progress. Yeah, there's a lot that's changed. I mean, a lot of work going on right now even before we have industrial scale quantum computers, a lot of work going on in quantum computing theory and building models and algorithms.

18. And a lot of this is rooted in in pure mathematics and statistics and whatnot. That work is making progress in building better algorithms even before the compute comes online. And then there's the separate set of things that you can track, but you know, the market, if you want to trust the market, is betting that we are within spitting distance of quantum computers reaching industrial scale at this moment.

19. So, those two things intersect at some moment in the near term where you have algorithms that are low demand, low latency, that can crack modern encryption standards, and then the computing comes online, and someone is going to execute. The The real thing is, what do you do about it? There's a whole bunch of research that's been going on for 20 plus years on quantum algorithms, quantum encryption standards.

20. And so, the to Chamath's point, these things exist. It's just a heavy lift, and so there's going to be this heavy lift. Probably, you know, pretty good business to be made in the next couple of years in uh all of the changes are going to need to happen across all encryption standards, across the whole internet, across how we do communications, and so on.

21. In a crazy way, Freeberg, crypto's in the same place as all these software stocks. Meaning, if AGI and ASI are real, these software companies are not what we thought they were. Yeah. If quantum is real, a bunch of these crypto projects are not what we thought they were. And so, you can't have both, guys.

22. You got to choose. As Chamath Palihapitiya and his colleagues just explained, a lot of people are not paying attention to the quantum and other underlying risks in the crypto market right now. And that's unfortunate because most people are only focused on price going up, stacking their bags, chasing profits, and making money.

23. But if we're putting our hard-earned savings into these assets, we need to understand the core value behind them and where things could be heading. It's not just about the price action, it's also about the deeper risks, including quantum threats. Imagine having everything invested in this asset class while still not fully understanding what quantum even is. This is something that deserves much closer attention right now.