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Michael Bur, the legendary investor who called the 2008 housing crash, is sounding the alarm again. This time, his latest moves suggest a market crash is looming, and most investors are completely unprepared. What exactly is Bur warning about? And why are his portfolio changes sending shock waves through Wall Street?
In this video, we'll uncover his latest investments and what they could mean for your money before the next big crash hits. Dr. Michael Bur. Yes, you probably know him as Christian Bale's character in the big short, but Mr. Bur has been one of the most fascinating value investors to watch over the last 5 years or so.
From his original warning about the housing market in 2008 to more recently investing in GameStop before it soared, backing Chinese tech stocks before things changed, and let's not forget his very accurate prediction of a huge wave of postcoid inflation in the US when inflation was barely 2%. This guy has been really interesting to follow, but over the past 2 years, it's been silent.
He shut down his Twitter, doesn't do interviews anymore, leaving us only one way to see what he's doing. His 13F filings, the quarterly portfolio reports all big investors must file. Well, just last week, Bur released his updated 13F for Q1205, and it shows some surprising moves. Michael Barry sold almost all his stocks except for one, but it gets crazier.
He also bought put options betting against the very stocks he held only one quarter ago. That's a total 180 degree turn. So let's break down what Michael Bur did in his latest 13F and what it means going forward. First, what happened? If we check Bur's 13F from the end of last year, he had a healthy $77 million portfolio with 13 holdings.
Some of the biggest were Chinese tech stocks. Alibaba, BYU, JD.com, Pinduo. These stocks had been steady parts of his portfolio for about two years, leading many, including me, to believe this was a long-term bet on China's recovery. These were solid companies, just hurt by China's economy. So, holding them looked smart as the country bounced back.
But the latest 13F for Q1 2025 shows a huge change. His portfolio dropped from 77 millions to just $13 million. He sold every stock except Estee Lauder, Alibaba, JD.com, BYU, all gone. In just 3 months, Bur turned very bearish, not wanting to hold much right now. But here's where it gets really interesting.
He also bought put options, active bets against the same Chinese tech stocks he owned just months ago. He's betting against Alibaba, JD.com, Pindu Duo, BYU, and also against Nvidia and Trip.com. So, he's not just cautious. He's actively betting that these six stocks will drop, including four Chinese tech companies he was previously bullish on.
The question is why the Chinese tech problem? How did Bur's outlook changed so fast? Well, what happened in January, February, and March, right? Trump launched a big trade war with China. After Liberation Day, Trump put heavy tariffs up to 67% on many imports. Then China hit back with tariffs on US goods reaching 125%.
And the US raised tariffs again to 145%. Though now there's a 90-day pause for Bur. This changed everything. These stocks aren't just normal anymore. They're stuck in a political fight. Tariffs hurt consumer demand, tighten profit margins, and cause regulatory problems. Add risks like possible delisting from US exchanges, capital controls, and negative views on Chinese stocks in the West, and suddenly the upside doesn't look as strong.
If you're worried about global trade or political risks, these Chinese tech stocks are the first to short. And judging by Bur's puts, that's exactly his view. It's a bit odd, though. I don't think Bur sees these companies as bad businesses. Not at all. His opinion on these Chinese tech companies is probably the same as 3 months ago.
He just sees the political risks growing and that's enough for him to exit the stocks and bet their prices will fall. So far, that's likely a smart move. We don't know the exact strike prices, but if he bought these puts in March when Trump was pushing tariffs hard, he probably made money on Alibaba, JD.com, Pindu Duo, and BU puts and likely sold shortly after the Liberation Day market drop, which fits his style of taking short-term profits.
Of course, we can't be sure. We only get these reports every 3 months, and the exact details are unknown. That's my best guess. Overall, crazy news. Bur not only exited the market, he's actively betting against it. Betting against Nvidia. Besides Chinese tech, Bur also bought puts against Nvidia, a very popular stock.
On paper, it makes sense. Nvidia's PE ratio is 46, which is high. But man, I don't know if I could bet against that company given how strong their business has been. They've done incredibly well in recent years, and the hype around the stock is huge. And the last put option position he holds is Trip.com, which you might not know, but it's another Chinese company.
They operate globally, but are headquartered in Shanghai, traded on both Hong Kong and NASDAQ. So, this put option probably ties back into that trade war story, Bur's only long position. So, that's the big update, what Michael Bur did in the last 3 months. But what about the one stock he still holds?
It's SD Lauder. You might have heard of the lipstick index. It was a term made famous by Estee Lauder's chairman Leonard Lauder during the early 2000s recession. It means during tough economic times, people buy small, affordable luxuries like lipstick instead of expensive items. They still want to treat themselves, but at a smaller scale.
This might be part of Bur's reasoning, but honestly, I don't put too much weight on that. Estee Lauder has been struggling with falling revenue and negative net income. A big reason is weaker demand in Asia-Pacific, especially China, and disruption in travel retail, duty-free airport shops, cruise ships, train station.
To fix this, the company started a big restructuring, cutting up to 7,000 jobs, and a cost-saving plan aiming to raise operating profit by $1.44 billion by 2026. The CEO is stepping down and new leadership is coming in. But honestly, I don't think Bur is focused on a full turnaround. He probably sees Estee Lauder as a beaten down value play, trading at prices not seen in nearly 10 years, down 82% since late 2021.
Knowing Bur the Contrarian, he might see a cigar butt opportunity. A company so beaten down it might still have one last profitable puff. I don't know enough about the makeup business to say if this is a short-term problem or something worse, but from Bur's bet, it looks like he thinks with the turnaround plan and new leadership, Estee Lauder has a good risk-to-reward ratio.
That said, if the stock price even moves up a little, I wouldn't be surprised if Bur sells it next quarter. From watching his filings, he waits for a spark of good news. And if investors start believing in a turnaround, he'll likely take profits and leave. What's the takeaway? Finally, what can we learn from Bur's 13F filings?
I've said this before, and I'll say it again. There isn't much for us to take away. You guys love these Michael Bur updates, so I'm happy to keep making them, but the truth is, we have to remember, first, Bur thinks like a Buffett style value investor, but acts like a short-term trader. Second 13F filings are released 45 days after the quarter ends.
So what we see is old news. That's not a great combo for us long-term investors. It works for Buffett because if he buys a big position, it usually stays for years like Apple since 2016. But with Bur, it's different. He probably already closed these short positions, got rid of the puts, and with the market stabilizing and trade tensions easing, he might have done another 180 betting on Chinese tech again for the long.
I don't think he thinks these companies are bad. He held them for about 2 years. So, keep that in mind when looking at Bur's 13F. Still, it's wild news. He basically sold his entire portfolio and flipped his stance. If you like these 13F updates, please leave a like on the video. You seem to enjoy them and I'm happy to make.
Also, let me know in the comments, do you follow Michael Bur? Do you care about what he does or not so much? I'd love to hear your thoughts. Thanks a lot for watching and I'll see you in the next
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