저자: RenéSellmann · 외국인
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결론: 가치투자는 저PER·저PBR 같은 정량 기준만으로는 더 이상 초과수익을 내기 어려우며, 가치와 성장의 이분법을 버리고 미래 현금흐름 관점에서 접근해야 한다는 내용이다. 하워드 막스 최신 메모(2023년 1월, 18페이지)를 요약한 3부작 시리즈 1편이다. 막스는 Oaktree 공동창업자로 수십 년간 시장 사이클을 겪은 투자자다. 고전적 가치투자의 한계: 그레이엄식 공식(그레이엄 넘버, PER×PBR≤22.5)에 기반한 통계적 저평가 투자는 과거 청산가치 대비 큰 할인 종목이 많던 시기에 통했으나, 현재는 운용사 수만 개와 방대한 데이터·알고리즘 경쟁으로 그런 기회가 빠르게 사라졌다. 가치 함정(value trap): 주가가 싼 데는 이유가 있을 수 있다(사업 쇠퇴, 과도한 부채, 자본배분 능력 부족). 프레스턴 에스니의 '왜 이렇게 싼가?'라는 질문이 중요하다. 가치의 재정의: 가치는 미래 현금흐름의 현재가치이며, 높은 배수라도 고성장이면 싼 주식일 수 있다. 막스는 할인현금흐름(DCF)을 핵심 도구로 제시하며 판단력(입력값 설정)이 성패를 가른다고 강조한다. 가치 대 성장 이분법은 무의미하며, 성장을 적정 가격에 사는 GARP(Growth At Reasonable Price) 방식의 하이브리드 투자가 대안으로 제시된다. 진행자는 테슬라 역DCF 영상 링크와 2·3편 시리즈 구독을 안내한다. 종목·지수에 대한 개별 가격 전망 발언은 없음.
다듬은 글
hello fellow intelligent investors my name is renee zellman and today i want to talk about howard mark's latest memo over the last couple of years marx has released some excellent pieces of writing but i think his latest memo is possibly the best memo he has ever released with 18 pages it is quite long however and in this video i will try to summarize some of his core ideas and share my key takeaways or key learnings from the memo have you ever wondered how you can make your hard-earned money work for you have you ever dreamed of building generational wealth and leaving a legacy my name is renee zellman and i'll teach you how you can manage invest your money with confidence a long-term vision and without losing your mind join me on my journey of intelligent investing and learn how smart people can compound their money effectively and accumulate well all right i just started this channel three months ago or so so make sure to subscribe to my channel to support me on this journey and one of my goals for this youtube youtube channel for this new year is actually to try to keep the videos a little shorter if possible i'm aiming for around 10 to 15 minutes per video and that is why i have decided to actually split this summary of mark's memo into various parts so this is actually the first video of a three-part video series and if you want to watch the next two videos about howard marks as well hit the subscribe button and maybe the notification bell so maybe we should start with who is howard marx in the first place well as i assume that most of you are familiar with him but for those who aren't he's mainly known for co-founding ultra capital which is basically an alternative asset management firm with over i think 120 billion dollars under in assets under management and marx is certainly a very well respected investor when he speaks or writes something people listen to him and that's because he has successfully weathered many market cycles over the last 40 to 50 years and in particular max is admired by the investment community for his memos which he periodically releases on his website and in which he details his investment strategies and shares his thoughts regarding the investment landscape or the economy in general and as i said these memos are publicly available on the oak tree website and they are for free so i can only encourage you to read every single one of them because it i think it's quite an educational experience i think in a way the experience is actually similar to reading buffett shareholder letters which is also highly recommended it will take time but it will be totally worth it and in addition howard mark's memos are actually also available in a podcast format so if you are commuting to work this would also be an alternative option now as i've pointed out i think the latest memory published in january of this year and titled something of value might be the best piece of writing he has ever published i think it's truly a masterpiece and so let me share one of my key takeaways now all right i think the first point marx makes is that value investing doesn't have to be about low valuation metrics in fact he argues that the traditional style of classic value investing is no longer likely to produce any sustainable edge on its own and that's because the world today has gotten much more complex and any edge classic or traditional value investor might have had in the past is quantified away nowadays but what does it mean by classic value investing by a classic traditional value investing style while he first and foremost refers to an investment style that focuses on low price to earnings ratios or low price to bookmobiles and so an investor a traditional investor is looking for real statistical bargains these old-school value investors primarily make money when the gap between price and value closes and not so much because of the performance of the underlying business the growth of the underlying business and just as a reminder here multiple expansion on the one hand and organic growth on the other hand are the two main drivers of your returns and classic value investors performance relies more on the former source of return and in this memo marx also refers to ben graham the father of value investing and his books security analysis and the intelligent investors which in a way can be considered the bibles of value investing and marx argues that graham's investment style relied on some fixed formulas to arrived at some kind of measure of statistical cheapness and if you have watched my previous video on the price book ratio for instance you should be familiar with the so-called graham number or the gram multiplier this ratio is defined as the pe ratio multiplied by the price of book ratio and according to graham should be no greater than 22.5 in his latest memo marks argus that back in the days of graham and maybe in buffett's early days classic value investors could successfully apply these principles because they could easily find many companies that are trading or were trading at enormous discounts to their liquidation value and as they could find plenty of opportunities in that realm they were successful and that was possible because there wasn't much competition no one really paid attention to these bargain opportunities but in today's world this is no longer possible and as i told or pointed out earlier any statistical cheapness will be quantified away quite quickly here's how howard marx describes this development fast forward to today and everything has changed the investment industry is widely competitive with tens of thousands of funds managing trillions of dollars information is incredibly ubiquitous with seemingly endless amounts of data not to mention books articles blogs and podcasts about investment methodologies and specific stock research available on your mobile phone in seconds and not only is information broadly available and easily accessed but billions of dollars are spent annually on specialized data and computer systems designed to suss out and act on any discernible dislocation in the marketplace i think classic or leap value investors will have to sell their holdings much more frequently than a growth oriented compounder investor and thus will constantly have to look for new bargains and here howard marx adds that this will obviously become harder and harder nowadays because we as we just said there are fewer of such bargains available like these no-brainer investments he wrote in the past bargains could be available for the picking based on readily observable data and basic analysis today it seems foolish to think that such thing could be found with any level of frequency thus in the world we live in today investing on the basis of road formulas and readily available fundamental quantitative metrics should not be particularly profitable now the obvious question is if value investors can no longer outperform based on quantitative valuation multiples what's the best way to approach investing in the 21st century well howard marks basically argues that value can be found in many forms value investing doesn't have to mean that you have to find investments that carry a low valuation multiple and a higher valuation multiple doesn't necessarily imply that a stock or a security is overpriced now in fact a business trading at a higher multiple might be the superior investment as it indicates higher growth prospects and maybe also superior business quality by contrast classic value investing focused on stocks that trade at extremely low multiples can in fact can in fact lead to so-called value traps so if a stock carries a low valuation multiple there's a good chance that the stock actually deserves to trade at a low multiple maybe their core business is declining maybe the company carries a lot of debt maybe the management has shown that they are poor capital allocators there are many different options let me quote another famous investor in this context namely preston ethne he wrote the best way to avoid a value trap is to ask the obvious question if this stock is so cheap why is it cheap the cheaper it is the more the market is telling you that there's something wrong if that's the case and you're still intrigued you better dig really deep so what howard marx essentially wants to point out in his latest memo is that the distinction between growth and value investing that is often found in mainstream media in particular doesn't serve anyone any good and he refers to it as the false dichotomy of value and growth value simply means paying less for something than it is worth and the worth of an asset is determined by its future cash flows and so also by its future growth and that doesn't mean that a stock stock that is optically expensive and trading at a high multiple is not cheap in absolute terms if a business can continue to grow at high rates for a sustained period of time an optically expensive stock can indeed be ridiculously cheap that's why marx just like me likes discounted cash flow methods to value businesses because they allow you to factor in future growth of cash flows and based on your assumptions you get an estimate of a company's intrinsic worth here's what he wrote in the latest memo cash flows are estimated as far into the future as possible and this counted back to their present value using a discount rate made up of the prevailing risk-free rate usually the yield on u.s treasuries plus a premium to compensate for their uncertain nature there are a lot of common valuation metrics like the ratio of price to sales or to earnings but they are largely subsumed by the discounted cash flow or dcf method now determining this value in practice is quite challenging and the key to success lies not in the ability to perform a mathematical calculation but rather in making superior judgments regarding the relevant inputs simply put the dcf method is the main tool of all value investors in the effort to make investment decisions based on companies long-term fundamentals so i think you should not artificially narrow down the number of potential investments based on multiples alone in fact i think this is why screeners so screeners defined investment ideas are somewhat suboptimal and howard marx agrees with me here he points out that the performance of traditional value investing has largely lacked that performance of growth investing over the past decade and even beyond and massively so obviously in 2020 he concludes the fact that a company grows rapidly relies on intangibles such as technology for its success and or has a high p e ratio shouldn't mean it can't be invested in on the basis of intrinsic value and if you want to see how one can apply a dcf you can check out my latest video in which i run a so-called reverse dcf for tesla stock there's actually a term for the approach howard marx describes and that i just described in the last couple of minutes in a way the approach he describes is a hybrid style of investing and it is referred to as growth at reasonable price investing short garp or garp and this philosophy basically plants components of value and growth investing into one investment philosophy and investors that believe in this hybrid selling investing are looking to buy companies that have the potential to grow at a fast pace but they still try to make sure that they don't overpay for the stock and that the stock is trading below its intrinsic value and that's already it for the video today i hope you learned something and if you want to learn more about howard mark's insights and my thoughts on what he wrote in his latest memo make sure to subscribe to the channel so that you don't miss part two and three of this video series may your finances and investments prosper good luck you
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