저자: DavidTepper관련언급—영상진행자RenéSellmann · 외국인
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데이비드 테퍼가 13F에서 중국 주식 비중을 확대(알리바바 18% 증액, JD 40%+ 증액)했다고 소개. 중국 경기 둔화에도 정부 부양책(금리인하, 자사주 매입 유도)으로 거시 여건이 변하는 중. 알리바바·JD·핀둬둬·바이두는 선행 PER 13배 이하, FCF 수익률 높아 가치 측면에서 저평가로 제시. 다만 매출 성장은 둔화, 과거 5년 수익률 부진. 진행자는 본인은 중국주를 보유하지 않으며 알리바바에 관심이 높지 않다고 밝힘.
다듬은 글
all right everybody we've got big news because David terer is boosting his stake in Chinese equities and edfs and he did so just before the development surrounding the Deep seek AI technology or or app surface so we have a lot to discuss today and so without further Ado let's get started all right hi everybody for those who don't know David Hepper he made a lot of headlines last quarter when he appeared on tnbc so I'm not going to show the entire clip to you um but basically this is the title of the video if you want to look it up it was released 4 months ago on CNBC and I remember two things from that clip one was that Hepper said buy everything in China and the other one was when he was asked about well is he possibly hatching his big bats on China and he said my hatch is that I don't care let me just show you the the most important part from that clip again so here you go investing in China too what's the risk how do you I mean that would be that would be a risk and that's why you have limits on how much you would invest however don't have the other thing I thought you were going to ask is about tariffs and stuff like that I do not care yeah right but you're a hedge fund how do you hedge your risk what what's the counter bet that you put on that just in case you know what you know I you you you um you know I'm sitting here in a suit my counter bet is that I don't care all right there you have it I think that that moment is is quite quite legendary already all right so David teer made headlines again yesterday because the 13f season has basically started and David terer was one of the first to file his 1f so the 13f of his hedge fund the appala management hedge fund which as of today has around $6.5 billion US in assets under management and as we can see if we look at this screenshot taken from data Roma for example David T is continuing to be bullish on China he was increasing many of his positions so Alibaba is still his largest position and he increased that position by another 18% in the last quarter in fact Alibaba or the shares of Alibaba owned by David heer are now worth around1 billion us and this makes David heer one of the largest shareholders of alibab in the world which I think is quite mind-blowing and if we look at the 1f again and his his current portfolio we can see that Alibaba isn't the only name isn't the only Chinese name in his stock portfolio know the there are other names such as fuor which makes up around 8% of the portfolio again he slightly increased that position JD is another one he actually increased that position by 40% 43% in the last quarter which now makes it a 5.6% position then he all also owns two Chinese ETFs namely the I China large capap ETF and the QB uh internet ETF you you have another overview of the activity in Q4 the the activity on on the by side and with that being said let's move on so there are a couple of things that I want to address with regard to yeah the decisions the activity or the decisions made by David terer and the activity revealed in his 13f so first of all I want to highlight a blog post that I released on my subst not too long ago two or 3 days ago I think basically I summarized a new le speech that appeared I think in November or December last year I translated it and shared some of the key takeaways from that speech for investors and the very first one was actually that lelu highlighted that you should quote unquote take the macro as it is so just to quote him here he he wrote or he he said our fundamental attitude is the macro environment is an objective reality we can only accept it the micro level is where we can actually do something this is the basic stance of a value investor the world is object the world is objective and will not change because of our wishes or subjective judgments and later he said value investing no matter where it is practiced is inevitably tied to its error while in principle it emphasizes bottom up analysis the companies we invest in unavoidably operate within a specific period and and I highlighted this face macro influences we cannot escape the time in which we live obviously I agree with lelu here I think as an investor as a as a value investor as an intelligent investor it's important to be a bottomup investor first meaning you study businesses you look at their financials you study the management team you come to an assessment with regard to the competitive advantages the businesses may or may not possess and so on and so forth that's what you start with but then on top of that you should be aware of what's going on in the macro world that doesn't mean that the macro factors or the macro developments should necessarily lead to decision making on your part but you should be aware of it and the impact on the businesses you own and obviously as someone who is investing in China for transparency I don't own any Chinese equities right now I used alib used to own Alibaba in the past and no long do but if you are interested in China or already own shares in Chinese equities you have to be aware of what's going on in China and the macro landscape in China seems to be shifting relatively quickly the Chinese government is quite aggressive in terms of the stimulus or the stimulus packages they are releasing in order to support the economy but also the the product stock market I generated uh two summaries from cat GPT here just to highlight what exactly the stimulous packages include so here we have one summary basically um the goal to to continue to lower interest rates actually also included a screenshot here that shows the development of the China loan prime rate for example over time and as you can see we see a pretty steady decrease of the China loan prime rate then there were measures to stabilize the stock market which obviously should also have an impact on on stock prices like one part of that package or or that measure for example would be that there are incentives for companies to buy back their own shares which of course will stabilize stock prices or should in theory stabilize stock prices as there will be more demand for the underlying Securities and in 2025 China actually indicated that they are going to add a couple of new measures to that stimulus um ambition and you can see overview of some of the measures right here now with that being said so the Chinese economy is struggling a little bit and the Chinese government the CCP is doing everything they can to re accelerate growth and stabilize it and that is something you as an investor should be aware of speaking of macro awareness once again if we now look at the micro level again so the actual businesses you could be studying and the businesses that David terer owns and take a look at the development of the share price of the Securities for example as you can see here pretty much all four of the individual Securities that David taer owns with the exception of pindu they have done pretty terribly over the last five years so JD only returned like 3% and Buu and Alibaba actually down over this 5year time frame pinu on the other end has done quite well it's up 222 no 232 per over this time frame now in terms of valuation Chinese equities also appear to be quite cheap I'm not going to do an in-depth analysis of the names here but but just looking at some of the headline numbers we can see that all four stocks are trading at quite cheap forward multiples so what you can see here are the forward PR ear ratios and all four names are are trading below 15 times actually below 13 times forward earnings JD is even trading at a single digit forward earnings multiple which is definitely cheap especially compared to us equities and I think what I should also maybe stress here once again is that all four names I highlighted here all four names from David heer's portfolio those are truly dominant businesses in their area so those are dominant internet based businesses operating in China and just to to look at another valuation measure here what you can see here is the free cash flow yield of all four stocks and again some of the stocks like pindu actually trading at Double Digit free casual yield by do as well JD and Alibaba at High single digit free cash flow yields I think alibaba's U free cash flow margin is also fairly depressed more recently so I think on a normalized basis Alibaba is also trading at a higher fre cash flow yield so all four names seem to be optically cheap however if we look at the underlying businesses um and and how they developed you also have to point out that Alibaba JD and BYU and here we're looking at Topline growth so Revenue growth haven't really grown at high rates more recently so those this chart here shows the development over the last 3 years and I myself as a as a past Alibaba shareholder I know that Alibaba over the period they owned the stock hasn't really developed favorably there were a lot of challenges the businesses had to work through had to overcome and this is also reflected in these rather disappoint disappoined growth numbers speaking of Alibaba specifically for example their Core Business Core Business the e-commerce business isn't really growing at all anymore which of course yeah should should give you concerns but then again you have to wonder is that maybe already baked into the evaluation of Alibaba and also with regard to Alibaba and it's also true for JD more recently also wanted to include this chart here which shows the development of the total numbers number of shares outstanding for these companies and Alibaba specifically has been pretty aggressively buying back its own stock which and again is also um contradicting The Narrative that you don't actually own Chinese equities no as this chy shows at least Alibaba shareholders are getting a return a direct return from the company by the company actually allocating cash to share repurchases so I I'll just wrap it up here that I think if we take a look at the valuation multiple scan so the free cash flow yield being around double digit so let's just say on average around 10% that's like really cheap for public equities and especially for dominant public equities and I think even if the businesses continue only growing going at say a low single digit rate investors could do well in these names over shorter time frames simply because the multiple might rate and there might be all sorts of reasons for the multiple to re rate Alibaba released quite recently news about their AI model they have been developing which apparently is even superior to the Deep seek model so things like that could quickly shift the sentiment among investors then of course everything related to the Chinese economy in general maybe ter of Donald Trump that may end up being lower than anticipated stuff like that can really quickly lead to a reating of some names I think at least um as I highlighted David Hepper also owns two Chinese ETFs so let me just show you the performance of these ETFs over the last couple of years so this one here for example is the I Shar China large cap ETF as you can see this ETF is pretty much flat over the last I don't know 10 15 years which is of course an abusal abusal uh performance and this one here is the um grain ey shares internet NEX again the performance ever since the 2021 Peak has also been pretty terrible just to show you what names are included here here you have an overview of the top 10 Holdings of the um grain shares internet index maybe finally one one part or one interview from a CNBC clip that I wanted to show you that also highlights that generally as an investor like you can't do well in investing and buy what's popular and China is probably the definition of a stock market that is unpopular right now so these guys and I think they are the authors of the big short book if I remember correctly might be mistaken here but they in this video clip highlight exactly that that they are looking off the beaten path they are looking at Chinese equities Brazilian equities and so on and so forth and they made a killing in 2024 and highlighted why and they also previously talked about Alibaba so I wanted to show you that little sequence and I encourage to watch the rest of the video maybe after watching this video if if you look at the cheapest stocks in the world you do screens they all show up Emerging Markets right and we pitched you know uh Brazil and Chinese stocks and came up and said and everyone hates these Chinese stocks Alibaba which is AI came out and said that their model is better than deep seek and I didn't know what deep seek was before Saturday and you know still don't but you know you can WI a lot of ways to win with the stock trading at four and a half times earning that's cash right and the famous question we asked ourselves what if it goes right right can it trade to 15 times that's a that's 3x our money right and so that's the type of uh thing we're looking at and we get excited about and saying wow this Market's really cheap everyone talks about how expensive things are but go to Brazil he talking about just the guest just had on 10% dividend yields in the index right and so where can we make money that's that's where everyone else is not looking okay let me just stop here and agree with them if you find a stock that is trading at four times earnings that is a dominant business that is at least not going to shrink over time well you probably have a a wow stock that you have found I'm not sure about the math they share here regarding Alibaba at one point being a 4.5 times earnings uh stock so that's on a multiple that I have arrived at when I looked at at Alibaba but alibar has certainly traded at a single digit fre cash flow multiple multiple times over the last 5 years so there's that as always this is of course not a bu recommendation personally I'm not super interested in Alibaba right now I think there are better opportunities or equally attractive opportunities out there in more democratic markets let me put it this way so obviously no investment advice but I would of course be curious about what you think when it comes to Chinese equities are you interested in them looking at them at all or is that an area where just like no not going to touch any Chinese equities take care
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