저자: RenéSellmann · 외국인
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결론: 조엘 그린블라트의 2000년 닷컴버블 유사성 발언을 근거로 현재 미국 시장에서 가치주 기회가 매우 크다는 것이 영상의 핵심 메시지다. 그린블라트의 1998~1999년 연속 손실과 2000년 115% 수익 경험을 소개하며, 단기 성과에 흔들리지 않는 장기 인내의 중요성을 강조한다. 그린블라트 연구 포트폴리오(상위 20% 저평가주)는 최근 30년 기준 93번째 백분위(현재 84번째)로 매우 저렴하며, 과거 이 구간 진입 시 2년 평균 수익률은 약 63%(현재 기준 50% 이상)였다고 설명한다. 반면 S&P500은 23번째 백분위(비싼 편)로 기대수익률 약 14~15%다. 가치 개념은 저PBR만이 아니라 잉여현금흐름, 투하자본수익률, 기업가치(EV) 등을 봐야 하며 성장과 가치의 구분은 인위적이라는 견해를 전한다. Alpha Architect와 GMO(벤 잉커) 지표도 인용해 현재 저평가 구간이 닷컴 고점 수준을 넘어섰다고 주장한다. 다만 심층 가치(하위 20%)와 얕은 가치(다음 30%)는 구분해야 하며, 가치 지수 통째 매수보다 개별 종목 심층 분석이 필요하다고 강조한다. 과거 저평가 고점 이후 5년간 가치투자가 유리했다는 점을 언급하나 과거 성과가 미래를 보장하지 않는다고 단서를 단다. 영상 말미에는 가치투자 교육 프로그램 테스트 수강생 모집을 안내한다.
다듬은 글
so I was curious Mr Greenblatt do you think this is at all similar to what you experienced here in 2000.com bubble today I see a situation that rhymes with what happened in 2000 our definition of value has a great opportunity set much higher than you know owning the s p as you would expect when the rubber band stretches away from value you know does it snap back Joel green plant is one of the best investors in the world between 1985 and 2005 the compounded investors capital and a rate of 40 per year and in 2023 Greenblatt believes that certain aspects of today's stock market environment Echo the.com bubble a period when his fund got them Capital experience losses in 1998 and 1999 but was then up over 115 in a single year in 2000 so in this video I will reveal the hidden secrets of the current state of the market that Joel Greenblatt recently shared in an interview with the hedge fund Association that so far has only been watched by around 9 000 people so I think you might gain an informational Edge by sticking around and so without further Ado let's get started all right so in April the hedge fund Association presented an exclusive Fireside interview with legendary hedge fund manager Joel Greenblatt who famously set up a hedge fund in 1985 when he was just 27 years old and then managed to achieve a return of 40 annually over the next 20 years and today I want to take a look at two to three clips from this interview and share my thoughts on the subjects discussed greenplatz see similarities between the current market environment and the state of the market during the.com bubble which was a speculative frenzy that occurred in the late 1990s and the early 2000s and was characterized by a rapid rise in the stock prices of primarily internet-based companies of course fueled by investor excitement over the potential of the emerging online economy similar to how people are excited about artificial intelligence in the current environment however the.com bubble eventually birthed in 2000 leading to a significant market crash in the collapse of many.com companies so in the first clip that I want to show you greenpler describes how he and his fund experienced this difficult period so we were still running money in 1998 when the market was up 28 percent and we were actually down five percent that year and it's hard to be down five percent when the Market's up 28 percent or um it's hard to live through that and that was the first year we lost money since 1985.
and then 99 happened and the market was up 21 again and that was our second year we lost money we lost five percent again so I was two years in a row and up 28 and of 20 if you know compound interest uh that's bad uh if you're down five percent two years in a row uh the next year the market was down 10 we were up 115 percent uh and I don't think we were idiots in 98 99 and all of a sudden Geniuses in 2000 we just finally got paid for the work we had done in 98.99 and the market decided to pay us at a at a different time so what Greenblatt is describing here is that being down two years in a row is very difficult for most fund managers as many clients may lose confidence in the skills of the portfolio managers they might sell at the worst possible moment and even harder to lose money when the market is up at the same time 28 and 21 in the case of greenblad two subsequent years of negative five percent result in a totally client of around 9.5 percent but let's just make this a wrong number 10 so if you're down 10 you already need a gain of 11 just to break even and obviously it's even harder to catch up with an index that's up 55 over the same two-year period and greenblad then highlights a very important lesson just because they were losing money two years in a row did not mean that they were wrong in those years it just took the market a little longer to recognize the value of some of the Investments that greenblad has made so understand that if you are serious about investing you cannot obsess over short-term results and yes two years in the stock market is a very short time period oftentimes you will only get rewarded for your correct analysis two or three or sometimes even five years later I believe this is what makes investing so hard but also what creates the opportunity for investors with patience and a long-term investing Horizon Journal green palette himself has repeatedly told the story that every year when he started his lecture at Columbia University he promises students that if they do good valuation work eventually the market will agree with them I think he said in 80 or 90 of the cases this is going to happen within two or three years okay let's move on to an even more interesting part of the interview here's what greenblad said about the current opportunity set in the U.S stock market I wouldn't say we have that dichotomy today that we had back then in these internet bubble but I do think some of the opportunities rhyme uh we have something we have a website called gotham.com and we actually started posting uh we have a metric that goes back 30 years and puts together a portfolio of let's say the cheapest 20 of the market you know if you look at the 1400 largest companies and we've done research on that uh right now I haven't looked in a couple days but uh we're in the 93rd percentile for that portfolio towards cheap over the last 30 years meaning the Market's only been cheaper for that type you know the bottom 20 percent uh seven percent of the time and uh when we've been here in the past uh it's not a prediction it's just saying what's happened from the 93rd percentile in the past to this portfolio over the next couple years and on average it's up 63 percent from the 93rd percentile if you took a look at the s p that's in the 23rd percentile towards expensive still positive returns expected but closer to 14 or 15 percent over the next two years not 63 so when Greenblatt gave the interview their research portfolio of cheap stocks was in the 93rd percentile towards Jeep I've just checked the updated numbers and as of today we've actually slipped to the 84th percentile but this still translated to a two-year forward return of more than 50 so seemingly the cheapest part of the market is attractively valued and we'll show you another chart that confirms yeah this very fact in just a second but first let's discuss how cheap is defined what a so-called value stocks but I don't like the term value to be honest I don't like that dichotomy of growth and value because I believe too many people have two different understandings of these two concepts buffer 2 also said that he thinks the distinction between growth and value should not be made and is in a way artificial when I talk about attractively valued stocks this could be everything from a company that trades far below its degradation value that might be liquidated in the next two years or so to accompany trading at 20 times its free cash flow but that is growing consistently in the 20 to say 30 range but it could also be a business trading at five times free cash flow or earnings growing at a low single digit rate but with management committed to Distributing profits to investors so as you can see in reality value can come in many different shapes and forms but when the media is reporting about value stocks they are usually meaning stocks that yeah trade at low multiples and often low price to book multiples which by the way I think is a meaningless valuation multiple we don't have access to the exact methodology used by greenplat himself but we do know that greenblad has the correct understanding of value and on the website of gotham.com they have also explained that they factor in companies free tax cash flow return on Capital and Enterprise Value so all those are metrics that I'd like to see in investors analyzes and Green platform self has pointed out that he doesn't like the distinction between growth and value either once again value investing is just investing uh uh the value investing that uh Russell or Morningstar would classify as value investing has had a you know low price book low price sales these are metrics that they use to discern oh you're a value investor uh haven't done well okay so what Greenblatt is basically saying is that if you are a value investor who knows how to find and value attractive stocks the current opportunity set in the United States is much more attractive than the yeah state of the General market and as the valuation of the broad stock market may suggest which is above the 25-year historical average you only have to look hard enough and other investors are quantitative measurements I should say maybe agree with greenblad let me just share two with you here first this graph here from Alpha architect.com Shows the relative cheapness of quote-unquote value using the operating income to Enterprise Value valuation multiple which is the ratio of the median valuations for the top decile of cheap stock portfolios measured by operating income divided by Enterprise Value and the median valuations for the entire U.S stock universe and a high ratio basically means that value has gotten cheaper relative to the overall universe so what one can notice when looking at the graph there are three Peaks one around the.com bubble one around the global financial crisis of 08 and then we've got the one off today and today we are even at levels that go beyond the 1999.com peak so how did value investing do after the prior to valuation Peaks as shown in these two graphs the next five years were a good period to be a value-focused investor however historical performance of course does not guarantee future results but I think it's at least a good indicator and then finally Ben inker from GMO who recently appeared on the map Faber Show podcast also confirmed the observations made by greenblad highlighting the results of their internal GMO measurements and right now there is something weird going on within the U.S stock market in particular which is what we refer to as deep value which would be the cheapest 20 percent of the market looks really cheap it looks cheaper than it has been 98 of the time through history relative to the market now if we look at the rest of value which if the cheapest 20 is deep value I am calling the next 30 percent shallow value the next 30 percent of the market is trading more expensive relative to the market than it almost ever has so that causes us to say hey you don't just want to be looking at the cheap half of the market because the cheap half of the market contains two very different groups of stocks so I think what enco just said is very interesting it confirms what I teach on this channel you have to know what you are doing if you want to actively pick stocks you can't just buy the value half of the U.S stock market because as anchor said well certain parts of the value group universe may be very cheap others are not so instead you want to dig deeper find stocks that are truly exceptionally cheap do the evaluation work yourself and as greenblad explained then be rewarded by the market over the course of the next two to three years so to become a smart investor make sure to subscribe to my channel and I've also got some fairly big news to announce you I'm currently looking for test clients for a value investing Mandarin program in which you will learn everything from basic personal finance Concepts to more advanced topics like how to read and work with financial statements competitive Advantage analysis management analysis valuation work behavioral finance and much more so if you want to learn more about this beautiful discipline the discipline of investing feel free to send me a DM on either Twitter or Instagram or send me an email to the email address that I've put in the description box down below and just to be clear you don't need to have any prior knowledge I'm looking forward to hearing from you take care
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