저자: RenéSellmann · 외국인
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현재 인플레이션과 금리 인상, 전쟁·중국 봉쇄 여파로 주식시장이 약세장에 진입했고 안전자산 찾기가 늘었지만 단기적으로 완전히 안전한 곳은 없다는 결론. 채권은 10년물 국채 금리가 약 4%이나 높은 인플레이션에서는 실질 수익이 마이너스가 될 수 있다고 지적. 부동산은 금리 상승으로 주택가격이 하락 압력을 받았고, 30년 고정 모기지금리가 1987년 이후 최대폭으로 올라 7%를 넘었으며, 미국 주택가격은 2011년 이후 처음 월간 하락(126개월 연속 상승 종료)했다. 소비재 필수 소비주(코카콜라, 펩시, 네슬레, P&G, 코스트코 등)는 올해 초 방어주 역할을 했으나 하반기에는 부진했고, 코카콜라는 밸류에이션이 과도하다는 평가. 에너지주는 2022년 시장을 상회했지만 장기적으로는 저수익 자본집약 사업이라 부진할 수 있다고 봄. TINA(대안은 없다) 개념을 제시: 장기(수십 년) 관점에서 미국 주식이 가장 성과가 좋은 자산이며 투자 기간이 길수록 주식 손실 확률이 낮아진다고 주장. Terry Smith 인용: 인플레이션기에도 실질 수익을 낼 수 있는 기업이 있어 주식이 대안이 없고, 현금 보유는 시장 타이밍이 필요해 현실적이지 않다고 봄. 원자재는 이자·배당이 없어 순전히 더 높은 가격에 팔 수 있을 때만 수익이 난다고 평가. 금·비트코인 등은 구체적 예측 없이 언급만 함. 결론적으로 단기 방어처보다 우량 사업을 보유하는 장기 관점이 중요하며, 10년 이상 좋은 사업을 소유하는 것이 가장 안전하다는 메시지.
다듬은 글
inflation is reaching multi-decade Heights and still Rising central banks are quickly increasing interest rates to fight inflation the tragic war in Ukraine shows no signs of ending anytime soon and China's zero covet obsession is continuing to damage Global Supply chains and so it comes as no surprise that we've reached extreme fear levels and that brought indices are in Bear Market territory with the s p down 25 year-to-date the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 20 and the NASDAQ composite index down almost 32 percent and as the stock market continues to be rather volatile to the downside more and more investors are looking for so-called safe places where they can hide meaning they are looking for Investments that won't perform as poorly as other assets during the current crazy Market environment so are there any safe places to hide at the moment and what does all of this have to do with a concept called tina that invest others should be familiar with well this is what I will discuss in this video and so without further Ado let's get started alright so as we are currently witnessing a ton of macroeconomic challenges where can investors find shelter well I would argue that stashing cash on a mattress is obviously not a great idea considering the high inflation rate of around nine percent that we are seeing right now the intro of this video I shared the performance of broad market indices and they have obviously not been a good hiding place this year what about bonds well 10-year U.S treasuries are offering a yield of almost four percent now but then again that's a negative real return if High inflation persists and four percent is probably not enough for most people to reach their financial goals what about real estate well home prices have come under pressure due to higher interest rates and as 30-year fixed mortgage rates have jumped by the most since 1987 and Rose above seven percent speaking of mortgages I came across a truly crazy fact about mortgages on Twitter the other day if you secured a 30-year fixed mortgage on a six hundred thousand dollar home at a 2.6 interest rate in 2021 you have the same monthly mortgage payment as someone that just bought a 360 000 home at today's seven percent mortgage rate and so it should come as no surprise that according to Charlie billello U.S home prices fell in July for the first time since 2011 ending a streak of 126 consecutive monthly increases so what about particular stocks and industries can we find any hiding places here well I would argue that earlier this year a place to hide for many fund managers were consumer staple stocks Consumer Staples sell basic Goods that people buy to support their everyday lives like food Beverages and personal hygiene products and generally speaking these types of products are typically less sensitive to economic Cycles so again early in the year and also last year when especially fast growing stocks so-called Tech and growth stocks were they are coming under pressure and Performing very poorly as their High evaluation multiples that were reached during the covet lockdowns declined significantly and a so-called covet beneficiaries were lapping their very strong covet quarters well Consumer Staples stock prices held up quite nicely the multiples they were trading at were rather stable and the stocks as a group outperformed other types of stocks examples would be the Coca-Cola company or Pepsi nestler L'Oreal Proctor and Gamble or Costco but the graphs also show that now as the June lows are being retested consumer stable stocks also started to perform more poorly in the second half of the year and it's also worth highlighting that these stocks may not necessarily be trading at prices that are attractive relative to their intrinsic value because often these businesses are only growing very slowly the Coca-Cola company for example basically generated no Revenue growth over the last 10 years and thus Enterprise Value 2 operating income multiples in the mid-20s can hardly be justified especially if you compare the stock to other businesses that may see short-term headwinds but have a much larger growth Runway ahead of them and are now trading at multiples that are lower than the multiple the Coca-Cola company is trading at another area that may have been considered a safe place by many fund managers are energy stocks which have outperformed broad market indices in 2022 but over a long enough time frame commodity businesses like energy businesses will typically perform rather poorly as they achieve below average Returns on their Investments and have little to no pricing power I highly suggest you pause the video here to digest these two beautiful crafts that Terry Smith the founder of Van Smith shared in his 2021 letter to investors now we could continue this list and discuss other investment areas such as emerging market stocks private Equity or alternative asset classes such as cryptocurrencies or entities but there is one major of law in the approach that I have used so far for all of the observations that I have shared well you might have noticed that everything that I have highlighted so far was characterized by a rather short-term view on the performance of certain assets how did consumer staple stocks perform in the first half of 2022 how did energy sectors perform over the last few months how did other asset classes like bonds or real estate performed recently and apparently in a bear Market nothing is totally safe but that's a very myopic approach that is overly focused on assets prices and macro developments and if you've been following me for a while you will know that I'm a big proponent of having a fundamental and most importantly a long-term view on investment opportunities and once you change your perspective and adopt this long-term mindset the investing World presents opportunities to generate wealth that is unavailable unavailable to myopic investors and a good way to internalize this mindset is to understand the Tina concept so what is Tina well Tina is an acronym for there is no alternative and personally I believe that if you take a long-term multi-decade view there is no alternative to stocks as historically U.S stocks have been the best performing asset class outperforming all of the other asset classes that I have mentioned here in this video so far sure stocks may appear risky in the short term because of their volatile nature but if you take a longer term view it's actually risky not too bad on stocks and this idea is supported by this chart here by Charlie pilello which he shared on Twitter and to which he added the following comment why you need to invest in one chart and as this graph here illustrates the longer your investment Horizon the less risk it is to yeah invest in stocks the less likely you are to lose money in stocks let me just share what Terry Smith wrote in his most recent 2022 semi-annual letter to investors about the Tina concept he wrote an inflationary periods Tina refers to the concept that equities will be the least performing sector in such conditions because of the ability of at least some companies to continue to grow revenues in real terms and generate real Returns on capital above the rate of inflation bonds with fixed interest coupons are certainly not the place to be in in these conditions real estate May provide some safety but it is a notoriously local market with poor liquidity and high frictional rating costs Commodities have had a day in the Sun at the start of this inflationary cycle and this may continue or not but there is no inherent return on Commodities no interest coupon no dividends or profits reinvested investing them is pure rate of gold Theory you can only make money by selling them to someone willing to pay more than you did all of which may point to the fact that there is no alternative to equities even though they have performed poorly so far this year Terry Smith then continues to discuss whether cash may be an alternative for investors not as a long-term investment but rather as an asset that can give you the dry power needed to pick up Bargains when stocks are down significantly however Smith thinks that this presupposes that you can correctly time the market he writes however even if you accept that it may be tempting to sell equities to go into cash as this may enable you to avoid further falls in the equity Market timing is of the essence in doing this and if you haven't done it already I think we can safely say you missed the top getting the other side of the trade roughly right will almost certainly mean buying back into equities when economic conditions are at their most Bleak this is a skill which few if any possess meanwhile time spent and cash whilst waiting is hardly a good bolt hole from inflation so what's the takeaway here well Chris Meyer recently published an amazing blog titled a safe place to hide and he opened his blog post by quoting what robot Curry wrote in his yeah famous piece the coffee can portfolio as a money manager I have frequently looked at an investment decision that I have felt a high probability of success on a three-year Horizon but about which I had many doubts on a six-month time Horizon and I think this quote nicely summarizes the issue I have with the idea of finding a quote unquote safe place to hide and just like me Maya himself is known to be a long-term investor that is focused on the best businesses in the world and so it comes as no surprise that he later writes in his blog that quote if you're Horizon stretches 10 years or more then owning a good business is one of the safest places to be even better own a portfolio of such businesses I have no idea what the stock prices of my favorite ideas will do over the next five months chance would play a huge role in the outcome and the odds are decent they could actually be worth less but over the next five years I'm more confident they will be worth a lot more what makes investing hard is that things don't unfold in an even or predictable manner there are some great runs there are nasty drawdowns and there are extended periods where they seem to go nowhere each presents lots of opportunities for investors to make costly mistakes now if you want to become a smarter investor you absolutely need to continuously improve and to do that I suggest you check out the following video in which I share Five Lessons that I have learned from Reading 99 investing books take care
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