저자: ChristianFinance · 외국인
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결론: 현재 미국은 고물가와 고실업이 겹친 스태그플레이션 국면에 가깝고, 인플레이션이 꺾이지 않는 한 시장 반등은 일시적일 수 있다. 스태그플레이션 진단: 미국 인플레이션은 약 4년 만의 최고 수준으로, 최근 분기 8.3%에서 최고 9.1%까지 올랐다. 동시에 경제 성장은 둔화되어 저성장과 고물가가 공존한다. 거시 리스크: 금리 인상, 러시아-우크라이나 전쟁에 따른 세계 경기 타격(특히 유럽), 월마트·타겟 등 유통업체의 재고 과잉이 주요 우려로 제시되었다. 다우지수는 하루 522포인트 급락한 사례가 언급되었다. 과거 사례 비교: 1940~50년대와 1970년대 미국 인플레이션은 각각 세 차례 정점을 보였고, 2020년대는 이 요인들이 모두 겹친 상황으로 설명되었다. 마이클 배리의 '심장마비 차트' 트윗이 인용되었다. 해소 조건: 인플레이션이 실제로 둔화되는 것이 가장 이상적인 해법이며, 연준이 금리 인상 속도를 늦추는 것만으로는 일시 반등 후 인플레가 다시 살아날 수 있다고 봤다. 인플레 둔화는 연준의 공격적 금리 인상을 통해 나타날 것으로 전망했다. 전략: 하락장은 기회이므로 전략적으로 대응할 것을 권했다. 영상에는 구독 이벤트, 1:1 상담(약 45분) 홍보 등 광고성 내용이 포함되어 있다.
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are we close to having stipulation yeah we are instant we are stagflation is simply where you know you have inflation and yet at the same time uh you have high unemployment today we're going to take a look at what Bridgewater founder and legendary investor Ray dalio has to say about the state of the current macroeconomic situation will happen in the near to midterm as well as you guys will get my whole perspective on everything that's going on as well are we close to having stipulation yeah we are instant we are stagflation is simply where you know you have inflation and yet at the same time uh you have high unemployment yep that's exactly what's going on in the U.S right now there is stagflation which means inflation is running extremely high in fact it's almost at a four-year high right here as we can see the bus two quarters we are running from 8.3 and higher right as high as 9.1 and aside from the inflation you also have a slowing in the growth in the economy due to a variety of factors of which I'll get to in a little bit yeah you have economic weakness right in other words you you you have a stagnant economy stagnant essentially meaning growth is reduced growth right low growth and with high inflation yeah and I mean he just explained it himself obviously we just saw the high numbers of the inflation over the past six months or so and then once again we have the slowing of the growth of the overall economy as well now really quickly guys I want to little notification button make sure to enter the giveaway there's not a week or so for it so to be entered inside of it subscribe to the channel comment your Instagram handle as well as your favorite cryptocurrency once the deadline is over I'll pick a winner dmu and send you 50 off a Bitcoin to a wallet of your choosing you guys want to work with me one-on-one comment down below will be around 45 USD 45 min minutes and this way I'll teach you anything you guys need in terms of investing saving and budgeting plus vast areas of self-development as well once again guys just subscribe to the channel now I just want to quickly look at Michael Barry's tweet this was less than a week ago and he actually wrote even the chart looks like a heart attack and that was when the Dow dropped 522 points in just a single day and it really does look just like a heart attack crazy and now they won't look at this tweet because I think it's a fair representation of what's going on the last two inflationary periods in the United States 1940s and 50s and the 70s each had three distinct inflationary Peaks twenties both flu World War II nihilism 40s post-war spent Baby Boom 70s bad energy and fat policy in the 2020s which is this one we literally did have all of the above so absolutely right there Michael Barry hit the nail on the coffin there are a lot of issues going on right now Mark economically starting off with inflation increase in interest rates the war in Russia and Ukraine is hurting the world economy really badly especially the European one if you guys haven't checked out the previous video check it out I go into depth about that topic we also have a surplus of Supply in stores like Walmart and Target which is really just crazy to think about because you would assume that when everybody is struggling people would be shopping in those two stores but when once again Walmart and Target have too much Supply that's when you know we're in a scary situation and yeah I mean the markets are not looking pretty at all I mean just a Dow Jones when we hit that last button we started to rise once again everyone was thinking hey we're out of the woods but we're just simply you know we're not downturn guys like I said too many macroeconomic factors drowning us down in order for us to turn this tight I need to see one of two things happen one a decrease in the inflation which really would be ideal that's the best case scenario or two would be the feds decreasing the interest rates or at least not increasing them as rapidly as they are right now but that's really not a good solution because we're just kicking the can down the line if that happens markets will rally in the short term but then inflation will be pick up again so I'll actually no solution really the only solution is inflation slowing down and the main way that's going to happen is through aggressiveness of the fed and the increase in interest rates unfortunately it's not ideal but we need to see that Max paying moment or actually go and start trending in the positive and for good reason that guy's video is over I think I covered a fair amount this is a time to be strategic in the downturn moments remember emember that every crisis has opportunity without the videos over let me know other similar Financial content you'd like me to do next please
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