저자: 미상 · 외국인
요약 보기
2022년 10월 영상으로, 경기침체가 심화될 것이라는 시각을 중심으로 재고 과잉에 따른 재고 주도형 경기침체 우려와 하락장에서의 분할매수(DCA) 전략을 설명한다. 경기침체 근거: 월마트·타겟의 재고 과잉 발표와 광고주 예산 축소를 언급하며 재고 주도형 침체 가능성을 주장한다. 2분기 연속 실질 GDP 마이너스를 근거로 공식적인 기술적 침체 상태라고 보며, 3분기 GDP도 마이너스가 나올 것으로 예상한다. 시장 흐름: 다우 일봉 차트가 하락 추세라고 설명하며, 6월 저점 이후 반등이 있었지만 금리·인플레이션·전쟁·에너지 위기 등 거시 여건이 나빠 다시 하락 추세라고 본다. 비트코인은 최근 6개월간 약 65% 하락해 1년 전 가격의 약 1/4 수준이라고 언급한다. 워런 버핏 사례: 버핏이 작년 고점 시기에 매도하거나 보유했고 올해 중반부터 매수하고 있다고 소개하며 '남들이 탐욕스러울 때 두려워하고, 남들이 두려워할 때 탐욕스러워라'를 인용한다. 투자 전략: 하락장에서 패닉 매도하지 말고, 충분한 리서치 후 분할매수(DCA)로 소액씩 진입할 것을 권한다. 채널은 주식·지수펀드·암호화폐 등 리서치한 고확신 자산에 대한 계획 수립을 강조한다. 리스크: 금리 인상, 인플레이션, 전쟁, 에너지 위기, 재고 과잉 등 복합적 리스크가 제시된다. 출연자 전망: 추가 하락 및 장기 베어마켓 가능성을 제기하며, 2022년 하반기 침체 지속을 예상한다.
다듬은 글
what we do um see in these earnings results is that we are in a recession hello guys welcome back to Christian Finance for your regular Financial content and today I want to cover Arc CEOs Kathy Woods view on the markets right now and what she thinks is going to happen in the short to midterm as well afterwards I'm going to give you my own personal opinion what I predict is going to be happening in the shorts or midterm in the financial markets we've been calling for a recession for quite some time a lot of it based on excess inventory so we think this is an inventory-led recession and I think that's coming through loud and clear we're seeing advertisers cut back dramatically it seems like when Walmart and Target announced that they were loaded up with inventories and this was far above what they had expected and that they were going to have to do something about it yeah and I mean that's a fantastic Point I've talked about this a few times but let's put it this way typically in economic difficulties people like to buy cheap Alternatives and the two go-to stores that people go to are Walmart and Target however now when the two major cheap alternative stores have too much inventory in a downward economic time you know that's when the economy is truly scary this this is a possible recession uh indicator and as you know we've just gotten two quarters consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth but a lot of people still are fighting the notion that we're in a recession and yes absolutely the end of August we got confirmed two negative quarter gdps which mended officially on paper win a recession now sometime in the next month we're going to get a statistics for the third quarter of this year and I personally believe that once again we're gonna have a negative quarter in the GDP right and it's going to be tough for the feds to deny that we're an actual recession right as much as they want to with that I just want to take a quick second ask you to like the video subscribe to the channel I put a lot of effort into making these videos for you guys enjoy your updated consistently so please in return I asked you subscribe to the channel now I do want to quickly go over to tweets of an investor that I personally look up to a lot and that's Michael burry I've done plenty of videos about him also you guys should be familiar about what he has done by essentially he predicted a 2008 housing market crash and then right here tweeted a picture of Dow Jones daily chart and even the child looks like a heart attack and yeah that's pretty much what's been going on we've been just trending downwards massively and then here another one and yet I keep getting asked when crash and yeah we're on a massive downturn right especially since the last peak of the bull which you know does remind me if we look at the last six months on the Dow Jones right here we had that June crash and then we had that slide recovery when everybody was thinking hey we're gonna recovering go back to all-time Highs but no guys the answer is we're in really tough macroeconomic situation right now from literally all angles interest rates inflation the war energy crisis right surplus of supply of certain Goods shortage of supply and other goods and rightfully so we're actually trending lower right than the initial bottoming out in June if you look at the Bitcoin one in the last six months we're actually down pretty much 65 percent and obviously we're about a quarter of the price we used to be about a year ago which is just crazy but I do want you guys to keep something in mind Warren Buffett the greatest investor of all time last year when prices were at all-time high he was either selling or holding and now since mid this year he has been buying right and that's because we're trending down his most famous saying and one of the truest ones be fearful when others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful and for the past 60 years he has been doing just that right when everyone is panicking he's buying when everybody is excited at the top he's selling right as tough as these times are I want you guys to keep in mind that Millionaires and billionaires are made in recessions I think it is my duty on this channel to tell you guys the truth right now we're in downwards trending times right we're in a bear Market recession so that means do not panic sell and this is extra important for you guys to make a DCA strategy right dollar cost average strategy where if you have never invested for example you do a lot of research right now and you actually dip your toes in the water you buy a little bit of your highly researched High conviction place right whether it's stocks index funds in crypto adversy only recommend Bitcoin for beginners right to my clients so you guys can do your research on that but yes right now doing the downwards times is the best time for you to make a plan and spend the hours doing your research right to feel comfortable and sleep well at night knowing that you've done your best with the decision making and with that guys the video is over let me know down below other similar Financial content you'd like me to do next subscribe to the Channel please and as always guys stay Diversified
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