Chamath Palihapitiya- “What’s Coming is WORSE Than a RECESSION”

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결론: 출연자들은 경기침체 이후에도 하방 리스크가 남아 있고 인플레이션이 재상승할 수 있다고 보며, 금리는 약 4.5~5.5% 수준까지 오를 수 있다는 입장이다. 거시 경제·인플레이션: 미국 연간 인플레이션은 8.2~9.1% 범위였고 최근 7.7%로 개선됐지만, 6~7개월 연속 8% 미만이 나와야 낙관할 수 있다고 봤다. 연준 금리: 게스트는 50bp 인상 2~3회로 금리가 5.5% 근처까지 갈 수 있으며 2024년 중반까지 높은 수준이 유지될 것이라고 봤다. 반면 호스트는 25bp 1~2회, 최대 4.5% 수준이 합리적이라며 5% 이상은 지속 불가능하다고 봤다. 금리와 국채: 미국의 금리 상승은 누적된 국가부채 이자 부담을 키운다고 언급했다. 투자 심리: 바닥에서는 공포로 매도하고 고점에서 매수하는 악순환이 반복된다고 지적했다. 이 악순환을 깨려면 교육과 적립식 분할매수 전략이 필요하다고 봤다. 주가지수: 다우지수는 최근 6개월간 사실상 신고가 수준이며 큰 타격을 받지 않았다고 평가했다. 개별 종목·코인: 메타와 넷플릭스는 1년 사이 크게 하락해 가격이 약 1/3 수준이 됐다고 언급했다. 비트코인은 1년간 약 65% 하락했다고 언급했다. 워런 버핏 인용: '남들이 두려워할 때 탐욕을 부려라'를 인용하며 경기침체기에 백만장자가 많이 만들어진다고 강조했다. 다만 이는 투자 조언이 아니며 직접 조사하라고 덧붙였다. 리스크: 하방 리스크가 남아 있고 인플레이션 재상승 가능성이 있다는 점을 반복 경고했다.

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01. there is still a lot of risk to the downside we haven't seen David's second you know dip in the recession and again the sharps think that inflation will come back at some point what's up as we saw in the intro we'll be looking to watch math yes guys difficult name to pronounce has to say about the markets where he thinks we're gonna be headed into short to midterm and as well as always I'll give you my own personal perspective backed up by graphs and proofs on where we're headed in the short to Mid to long term now keep in mind this might be the time that the experts actually now start to reverse their bearishness for the first time in a long time but let's see what he has to say there is still a lot of risk to the downside we haven't seen David's second you know dip in the recession and again the sharps think that inflation will come back at some point the problem is again there is still a lot of risk to the downside we we haven't seen David's second you know dip in the recession and again the sharps think that inflation will come back in the next six months yeah and I mean I for one to a large degree have to go with shamaf here I think although a lot of the bat has passed I don't think that we're on a amazing track yet if we take a look at inflation over here I mean all the way from March all the way up to now pretty much the lowest year over year inflation we've had was the 8.2 and highest 9.1 right over the span of seven plus months which is a long time now obviously for the last month we did receive a 7.7 which is a great Improvement for the inflation in the USA but personally I'm going to see five six seven months in a row of under eight percent to be somewhat optimistic because you just have to keep in mind I'll get to in a little bit we still have a lot of negative macroeconomic factors still looming around that will keep the fed's foot on the gas maybe it's two or three more 50 basis point hikes the point is Jason you could be at five and a half again we said this last week we're going to get to a point that's probably higher than what people expect that's probably around five and a half and will stay there longer than people want that's probably through the middle part of 24.

02. well this now is the point where shemaf and I actually disagree I don't think that the feds are going to do another two or three 50 basis points of hikes in the interest rates I just don't think it's sustainable 5.5 percent of interest rates considering all the map economic factors we have currently is not reasonable I see potentially one or Max two more increases in the interest rates and at tops you'll be 0.75 percent total between two people have to keep in mind that the more the US increase their interest rates the more they increase the interest rates of their trillions of national debt right that they have to pay at some point so I think 4.5 is reasonable right anything past five I just don't see happening without you want to take a quick second ask you guys if you're enjoying the videos like them subscribe to the channel it just takes one click hit the notification Bell so you get notified every single time I upload I do pull off effort into giving you guys this regular Financial updates only thing asking return guys once again to subscribe to the channel I did want to take a quick look at Michael Berry's latest tweet this was coming because he has always been this way before how anyone over age of 40 has not seen this coming is a riddle the answer being read and yes guys what he's talking about is a constant cycle of when markets are at the bottom that's when it's human nature to sell because you think it's gonna keep dropping and then when something Rises and it's in the bull market typically people tend to buy someone near the top instead of at this time having a dollar cost average strategy to actually be selling they're buying at the tops and then as the markets bench start to go down this is where they start to sell right so it's a vicious cycle and of course she's a psycho that's going to keep on going right that's how the rich get richer so the only way for regular folks to break the cycle is to get educated and have hiking eviction of their place right when all their friends are scared to buy near the bottom that is when you should be tokos averaging as long as you have a good strategy and you have the new research on that particular Index Fund or stock or Bitcoin or whatever it may be now they want to take a quick look at the Dow Jones it's actually doing extremely well it's pretty much hit all-time highs for the past six months right now which is just crazy considering where we are it really hasn't taken any hit obviously it's individual companies such as meta and Netflix have been absolutely destroyed in the past year or so meant that being at one third of the price of course crypto and Bitcoin have been destroyed around 65 down in the past year and yeah guys this is the time we want to consider doing your research at a bottom price right you should not be buying just because your friends told you at an all-time high price but this is the right time for you guys to be doing your research at the near bottom price it's exactly what the gold investor does Warren Buffett be fearful others are greedy and be greedy when others are fearful and that's exactly what he has been doing this year the price have been crashing especially earlier in the year he kept on buying this was a time that he this was the time that he was buying his high conviction place and then last year and everything was near an all-time high or actually an all-time high well almost doing was he was either selling or holding I just want to make one thing clear to you guys that during recessions and depressions this is a time that most millionaires and billionaires are made right remember that this is a time for you guys to do your research and consider a dollar cost average strategy into your high conviction place it's not Financial advice just please go on and do your research with that guys video is over let me know without similar content you'd like me to do next in the financial space of course subscribe to the channel it does help me out and as always stay Diversified