저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 영상은 스태그플레이션 진입과 단기 약세를 주장하며, 나스닥·비트코인 등 위험자산의 2024년 중반 이후까지 신고가 회복이 어렵다고 본다. 거시 환경: 최근 8개월간 물가상승률이 7.9~9.1%로 40년 만의 고점 수준이며, 고물가와 저성장이 동시에 나타나는 스태그플레이션 상태라고 진단. 경기 침체 신호: 올해 들어 GDP가 두 분기 연속 마이너스였으며, 이는 통상적 정의상 경기침체이고 연준이 인정하지 않을 뿐이라고 주장. 금리·지정학: 금리 인상이 계속될 것으로 보며 진행자는 기준금리 4%까지 오를 것으로 전망(일부 전문가는 5%). 유럽 중심 전쟁 리스크와 간헐적 팬데믹 재확산도 불안 요인으로 언급. 소매 지표: 월마트와 타겟(저가 대체 유통)이 재고 과잉을 보고한 점을 경기 악화의 불길한 신호로 제시. 마이클 버리 인용: 과거 2008년 폭락을 예측한 버리가 올해 6월 다우 1년 저점 이후 랠리를 바닥으로 봤으나 실제로는 더 하락했다는 점을 언급. 진행자는 10월 저점보다 더 낮아질 수 있다고 봄. 비트코인: 1년 전 약 6.9만 달러에서 현재 약 4분의 1 수준으로 하락. 위험자산 특성상 하락장에서 가장 크게 타격을 받는다고 설명. 진행자는 2025년 이전 사상 최고가 근처 회복은 어렵다고 봄. 다우 급락: 하루 522포인트 하락을 언급하며 차트가 심장마비 같았다고 묘사. 내부자 매도 신호: 약 1년 전 제프 베이조스·일론 머스크가 아마존·테슬라 주식을, 저커버그가 메타 주식을 대량 매도한 점을 하락 경고 지표로 제시. 억만장자의 대량 매도 시 위험 신호로 보라고 조언. 전략: 현재 현금을 가진 투자자들이 하락장에서 주식·코인·부동산에 진입 중이며, 상승 전환 시 이들이 매도할 것이라 해석. 하락 구간에서는 분할매수(달러코스트에버리징)를 제안하되 고점 매수는 피하라고 조언. 분산투자 강조. 출연자 견해 요약: 진행자는 단기~중기 약세, 2024년 중반 이후 회복 가능성, 2025년 이전 신고가 회복 어려움을 주장.
다듬은 글
are we close to having stipulation yeah we are instead we are we're going to be reacting to one of the legendary investors Ray dalu if you're even five percent into the space you know exactly who he is so we're gonna go over what Ray thinks is gonna happen in the short to midterm in the markets I'm gonna give you my honest opinion what I think about what he's saying if I'm going to go over what I believe will happen in the short to Mid to long term are we close to having stipulation yeah we are instant we are stagplation is simply where you know you have inflation and yet at the same time uh you have high unemployment that's exactly what's going on we're literally in stagflation as we speak so as right here as we can see the past eight months we've been averaging from 7.9 all the way up to 9.1 percent which is more or less inflation at a 40-year high right so this is the first metric of stockflation obviously High inflation and earlier this year even though the FED won't admit it we had two consecutive negative quarters of GDP which by definition as of this moment is a recession right if the FED doesn't want us to say that we're in a recession this really changed the definition of it and honestly there's a high likelihood that they will you have economic weakness right in other words you you you have a stagnant economy stagnant essentially meaning growth is reduced growth right low growth and with high inflation yeah I mean he just reiterated what we just explained High inflation with low growth in the economy but there's only just a few of the issues going on right we also have an increasing of interest rates which trust me it's not helping some experts will say we make it up to five percent my opinion we're gonna go up to four we'll have to wait and see exactly what happens there also we have the wars you're looming around balance affecting a lot everywhere especially in Europe the pandemic is still happening on and off at certain places and it might be one of the scariest things going on right now is that the two companies when you'll expect to do well when the economy is not doing well so Walmart and Target they actually were reporting a surplus of supply and that's scary when the two cheaper alternative stores are reporting surplus of Supply in a downturn economic time that is not good okay guys I want to take a second and ask you if you're enjoying the videos like it and if you're finding this content beneficial and you want to get regularly updated on what's going on subscribe to the channel hit the notification Bell once again to show me your support to subscribe to the channel and right here we have a classic from Michael burry all I see he predicted 2008 policy market crash benefited quite heavily from it so he's definitely someone that a lot of people look up to in the financial space and right here he says and I keep getting asked when crash so essentially what he's referring to is that back when June when we had a one-year low in the Dow Jones then we had a rally coming back up everyone but he thought this would be the bottom right but now obviously crashed much harder they were initially back in June and no Financial advice do your research I personally believe we're gonna go even lower than this low in October as based on previous videos you guys seen what I believe and that is that we're not gonna go anywhere towards all-time highs until Midway to end of 2024 right and then yeah I mean right here we have Bitcoin which was arguably Hammer the most obviously it's a risk asset and in downtown Economic Times those ones get Hammer the most any upward trending markets those ones arise the most right but a year ago it was worth 69 000 and now it's worth pretty much a quarter of that right which is absolutely crazy and yeah I don't think we're gonna be hitting anywhere near all-time highs until 2025 and I do believe here we're going to be heading lower this might worry twitch will crack you up a little bit and it's all about when Dow Jones went down by 522 points in a day and the chart really did look like a heart attack and really one key metric that helped me out a lot to really just be able to predict certain stuff was about a year ago cat Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos sell quite heavily from their respective stocks of Amazon and Tesla and you know when the big billionaires are starting to sell a bunch of shares from their companies in all troubles ahead right Mark Zuckerberg did the same thing about a year ago too he was selling as well so that's a metric you guys should be looking at in the next Bull Run when these guys decide to start selling you know it's a good time for you guys to start dollar cost averaging on the way out I do want to remind you guys one thing that yes as bad as the factors are right now and I named a lot of bad things going on what happens is everything runs in Cycles we're not going to be downward turned forever just like we're never up or try that forever right it's always going to switch and the main thing I want to remind you is that ight it's right now that there's more people that have a lot of money on the sidelines are jumping in in stocks in cryptos in real estate with everything is on a downward Trend and then when everything is coming up that's when they're gonna be holding or selling they're not buying a peak prices I promise you that this is it guys I want to ask you to like the video to get the let me know at a similar content you'd like me to do next in the financial space and as always guys stay Diversified
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