저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 2022년 말 시점에서 향후 18개월간 미국 경기 침체와 끈끈한 인플레이션이 이어질 것으로 보며, 본인은 공격적 매수 복귀에 신중한 입장. 거시경제 전망: 올해부터 2023년, 2024년 일부까지 경기가 힘든 구간이 이어지고, 실업률은 다시 오르며, 실질임금은 줄고, 소비는 둔화되고, 기업 이익도 부진할 것으로 전망. 금리 전망: 인플레이션이 쉽게 사라지지 않고 연방기금금리가 5% 이상으로 오를 수 있으며, 금리 인하는 당분간 어렵다고 봄. 최근 6개월간 금리 8~9.1% 수준이 언급됨. 유럽 상황: 유럽의 경제 위기가 미국보다 더 심각하며, 전쟁의 영향으로 가스 등 에너지 비용이 크게 올라 있음. 주식 손실 회복 논리: 주가가 50% 하락 후 50% 반등해도 원금은 회복되지 않으며(25% 손실 잔존), 하락 후 회복의 어려움을 강조. 소비 및 유통: 월마트와 타겟이 재고 과잉 상태로 상품 소진에 어려움을 겪고 있어 저가 대체재 유통까지 침체 신호가 있음. 시장 지표: 비트코인은 최근 6개월간 58% 하락, 고점(6.9만 달러) 대비 약 1/4 수준. 다우지수는 최근 6개월간 18% 하락. 마이클 버리의 차트 관련 비관 트윗 언급. 재진입 조건: 본인이 시장에 공격적으로 복귀하려면 (1) 인플레이션이 6% 미만으로 떨어지고 (2) 금리가 동결되거나 인플레 하락 후 인하되는 것을 확인해야 함. 출연자 관점: 경기 침체기에 억만장자가 많이 탄생하므로 기회를 놓치지 말라는 메시지도 함께 제시. 리스크: 전쟁 해소 전까지 정상화가 어렵고, 소비 둔화와 금리 고점 장기화가 주요 하방 리스크.
다듬은 글
you know through the course of this year and through 2023 and possibly even a little bit of 24 it's going to be a grind unemployment will go back up inflation will be sticky real earnings will shrink consumption will ebb and earnings will not be that great or your daily Financial content and today I want us to take a look at what the one and only show mathia has to say about the current state of the market what he thinks is going to happen in the short to midterm as well as his practical tips and strategies and then later on I'm going to give my take on it and where I'm standing and what I'm looking to do in the current market right now the bad news is I think that it's going to be a really tough sticky time for the U.S consumer probably over the next 18 months and so I tend to think that you know through the course of this year and through 2023 and possibly even a little bit of 24 it's going to be a grind unemployment will go back up inflation will be sticky real earnings will shrink consumption will ebb and earnings will not be that great he's saying is pretty critical essentially he's saying that for the next 18 months the economic situation is going to be in trouble the inflation is not going to disappear it's still going to stand here the interest rates will not be decreasing they'll be staying stagnant or perhaps going up even higher and that's kind of crazy think about considering already how high the interest rates have been I mean just in the last six months we've been anywhere from eight percent to 9.1 right which is crazy and I just watch on paper realistically it's more like 15 16.
again Europe is actually doing much worse if you guys want to check out one of my previous videos I go over exactly how much worse the current economic crisis in Europe actually is where that guy just wants to take a quick second ell so you get notified every single time I upload but for now guys just subscribe to the channel you know let's just say a stock goes down 20 50 percent even if it rallies 50 from there it's still 25 off from where yeah people don't understand that and people don't understand that they climb back up to the mountain so I would just I would just think you know um uh we're gonna feel this for a while um it's this inflation as I've said for a long time is going to be sticky and persistent I think you're going to see Fed funds at or breaching five percent this is a super volatile ugly point in the market this last year has been really problematic okay yes a lot to cover there so what he says is very true if a stock goes down by 50 essentially lost half its value but then if it goes up 50 then he has only gained about half the value that he needs to get back to the original amount and yes once again the inflation that he says will be persistent it'll be here for a while I do have to agree with this unfortunately the macroeconomic state of the US and really the world is quite poor every single issue possible Right inflation High interest rates high and then we have another problem so Walmart and Target they actually have a surplus of goods right meaning they have too much Supply and right now as a lot of you guys know we're in a macro economic downturn and when you have the cheap Alternatives such as Walmart and Target struggling to move their supply struggling to move their goods you know we're in a scary situation and that's exactly what's happening right now unfortunately and then obviously we still have the war happening which is affecting Europe more than anything even Canada and us the gas is affected quite heavily as well so the war does need to get resolved for us to get some more back to normal and then right here we have Michael burry he just tweeted even the Char looks like a heart attack it's pretty funny that one actually got me I had a good laugh after I saw that but it's true it's uh really crazy Bitcoin just in the last six months it's down 58 as you guys all know about 11 months ago it had an all-time high of 69 000 and now we're more or less a quarter of the price of the all-time high the Dow Jones as you guys know is super conservative but even it has been hit 18 in the past six months pretty much no matter what point of view we look at it there's trouble on the horizon and for me to be confident to be jumping back and hard into the markets I'm looking for two things right preferably both but at least one firstly and that'll be the best one inflation decreasing to under six percent at least right that'll be a very good sign and then interest rates either staying stagnant but better off a reduction in them after we've seen a drop of in the inflation right that's gonna be the best sign that we're gonna be headed back towards a normal situation but remember majority of millionaire and billionaires are made in recessions right that is something I want you guys to keep in mind with that guys the video is over let me know what you thought down below please subscribe to the channel let me kn
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