저자: RenéSellmann · 외국인
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결론: 애크먼의 30년물 미국채 공매도와 버핏의 단기채 매수는 서로 다른 만기의 베팅이라 정면충돌이 아니라는 분석. 애크먼 입장: 장기 인플레이션 구조 요인(탈세계화, 국방비, 에너지 전환, 복지 확대, 노동자 협상력)으로 3% 내외 인플레가 지속될 것이며, 32조 달러 국채와 대규모 재정적자, 양적긴축 속에서 장기금리가 크게 오를 수 있다고 봄. 30년물 금리 5.5%까지 가능하다는 계산 제시. 옵션을 통해 공매도 포지션을 잡았다고 함. 채권 가격 원리: 금리 상승 시 기존 채권 가격 하락. 예시로 연 4.3% 쿠폰 10만 달러 30년물이 5% 수익률을 맞추려면 약 8.6만 달러로 떨어져야 한다고 설명. 버핏 입장: 피치 신용등급 강등 이후에도 버크셔가 매주 약 100억 달러 규모의 미국 단기채(3개월·6개월물)를 계속 매수한다고 밝힘. 이는 대규모 현금 관리 목적이며 장기채 전망에 대한 의견 표명이 아님. 리스크/조건: 애크먼은 금리 상승을 통해 주식 가치 하락을 헤지하려는 의도도 있음. 채권 전문 투자자가 아니라고 스스로 밝힘. 결론적 평가: 두 베팅은 만기와 목적이 달라 상충하지 않음. 한쪽이 실패해도 다른 쪽이 실패하는 것은 아님. 언급 자산: 미국채 30년물(금리 상승 베팅, 애크먼 공매도), 미국 단기채(버핏 매수), 미국채금리(장기 상승 전망).
다듬은 글
and a clash over the future of the U.S bond market iconic investor Warren Buffett a renowned hedge fund manager Blackman have seemingly taken opposing positions with Eggman aggressively shorting 30-year U.S treasuries Buffett fearlessly investing 10 billion US dollars each month into U.S key builds and the U.S rating agency Finch downgrading the United States from Triple A to double A Plus citing the repeated down to the wire debt ceiling negotiations that threaten the U.S government's ability to pay its bills many investors were caught by surprise so in this video I will briefly discuss both buffers and eggman's pets and whether one can really speak of a high stakes confrontation between the two legendary investors foreign s recently that suggests that the two investment tightens Warren Buffett and Bill Eckman are taking opposing bets and have a fundamentally different outlook on the future of the US economy like for example this parents article titled Warren Buffett and will Ekman face off over bonds or this tweet here that reached almost half a million people so what is all this fuss about I would suggest we start with Bill Ackman akman the founder of Pershing Square Capital Management recently shared on X on Twitter or however you want to call it that he is quote unquote short in size 30-year U.S treasuries and he was sharing his thoughts on this particular trade in a very long tweet or post and let me just highlight the most important points and this is rational behind shorting U.S long-term treasury bonds before I then explain how shorting government bonds actually works so here's what he wrote quote unquote I have been surprised how low U.S long-term rates have remained in light of structural changes that are likely to lead to higher levels of long-term inflation including deglobalization higher defense costs the energy transition growing entitlements and the greater bargaining power of workers as a result I would be very surprised if we don't find ourselves in a world with persistent three percent tush inflation from a supply demand perspective long-term treasuries also look overbought with 32 trillion US dollars of debt and large deficits as far as the eye can see and higher refi rates and increasing supply of treasuries is assured when you couple new issuance with quantitative tightening it is hard to imagine how the market absorbs such a large increase in Supply without materially higher rates he also later added that he is making the investment via options and not fire shorting bonds outright okay feel free to pause the video right here to read the rest of the Tweet but apparently he's short long-term bonds as I said quote unquote inside Heights and 30-year U.S bonds specifically and I think I need to briefly explain what all of this actually means let's take a look at an example so right now the 30-year U.S treasury yields a return of 4.3 percent I'm rounding up here and if we now assume you buy 100 000 worth of 30-year US Treasury bonds the bond issuer which is the U.S government pays you four thousand and three hundred dollars a year for 30 years that's the bond yield and after 30 years the US government then promises to pay you the one hundred thousand dollars back which is referred to as the Bond's face value now what you have to understand is that it wants price and yield change on a daily basis of course you can also just hold the bond until majority so you never sell it and simply collect the yearly Bond coupon of 4.3 percent but of course you could also sell it on the open market because a bond is a publicly traded security just like stocks and thus can be sold before maturity without the bond issue where being involved now what's important to understand is that bonds and interest rates have an inverse relationship when interest rates go up prices of existing bonds tend to fall even though the coupon rate of these existing bonds actually remains constant as a result the bond yields go up so that's essentially the bet that Ekman is making here and if you think this through this makes a lot of sense because the demand for the bond will shift as the interest rates available elsewhere increase or decrease just like a store cannot get its customers to pay say three dollars for an apple when they store across the street offers the very same Apple for one dollar Bond buyers are also looking for their best Alternatives so if you can buy a 30-year treasury bond with a five percent yield elsewhere why would you buy a bond that yields only 4.3 percent to sell our bond that yields only four thousand three hundred dollars a month we have to sell it at a lower price than its face value in fact to offer buyers a five percent return we would need to sell the bond for eighty six thousand US dollars because five percent of 86 000 would be four thousand and three hundred so essentially the bond is now trading below its one hundred thousand dollar face value now Bond pricing is a little more complicated than I make it seem here you also have to factor in the face value for example that is received by the bondholder at maturity so if we do the math correctly here say you sell the 30-year Bond after one year so there are 29 years of payments left interest rates however have risen and buyers of your bond demand a five percent return well then you can get eighty nine thousand and four hundred dollars and feel free to correct me here personally I'm not a bond investor and in fact I've never bought assaulted Bond myself and I might very well have missed something here and to get back to Eggman later in the Tweet he did some back of the envelope math highlighting that he's expecting inflation rates to stay persistently around three percent and he says 38 treasury yields could then hit 5.5 five percent soon I think in this context it's also worth reiterating that Ekman is a hedge fund manager and this bet mainly serves as a hatch for his stock portfolio because if long-term interest rates rise Eggman thinks that the value of stocks as a group will go down so now let's focus on Buffett does Buffett actually disagree with Bill Eckman here as suggested by some of the market commentators that I've shown you at the beginning of the video well in my opinion the answer is a clear no let me explain in response to the Fitch credit rating downgrade Buffett made a public comment stating that Berkshire Hathaway is still buying around 10 billion US dollars worth of us t-bills every week and that quote unquote there are some things people shouldn't worry about this meaning the rating downgrade is one the added quote unquote the only question for next Monday is whether we will buy a 10 billion US dollars of three months or six month U.S he builds now the last part is actually the most important one when we discuss whether Eggman and Warren Buffett are taking opposing bets Eggman just as a reminder is short 30-year U.S treasuries and Buffett on the other hand is buying three and six months U.S key builds so we're looking at completely different Bond durations and times to maturity and I would argue that clearly these two bets aren't correlated at all Buffet is mainly managing the massive cash pile that Berkshire Hathaway is sitting on as of berkshire's most recent quarterly report buffer needs to manage a cash pile worth almost 150 billion US Dollars and of course he wants to earn some return on that money while waiting for more attractive opportunities and short-term U.S bonds are of course the ideal instrument to accomplish just that but differently by buying short-term U.S bonds which Buffett will hold until maturity he doesn't express any opinion on the Outlook of long-term U.S bonds so in order for one bed to work either buffets or the other one doesn't have to fail and interestingly even Eggman himself expressed this idea on Twitter when he responded to another tweet and wrote quote unquote we actually agree Buffett would never buy 30-year treasuries at anywhere near current yields his purchases are just cash management using short-term key builds we also invest our cash in short-term treasuries okay that's it for this video any support is of course appreciated liking the video leaving a comment or watching one of my other videos next take care
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