저자: PeterSchiff · 외국인
요약 보기
미국 달러와 국채 체계가 폰지 사기와 같아 위기 가능성이 크다는 주장. 결론: 미국은 통화·재정 위기 상태이며 달러 체제는 지속 불가능하고 결국 붕괴 가능성이 높다. 부채한도 협상 과정에서 채권자보다 기존 차입금 상환을 후순위로 둔다는 발언이 나와 정부가 신규 차입에 의존하는 폰지 구조라고 주장한다. 연간 약 2조 달러 적자 구조에서는 지출 삭감이나 증세가 필요하며, 증세는 소득세보다 소비세(부가가치세 등)가 덜 파괴적이라고 본다. 사회보장·메디케어·국방 등을 포함한 대규모 지출 삭감과 불필요 기관 폐지가 필요하다고 주장한다. 약 32조 달러 부채는 상환이 불가능하므로 채권 재구조조정(일부 감액)이 불가피하며, 채권 보유자도 손실을 감수해야 한다고 본다. 재구조조정 대신 통화 발행을 계속하면 초인플레이션으로 이어져 채권자가 더 큰 손실을 입는다고 주장한다. 현 경로가 지속되면 초인플레이션은 확실하다고 보며, 그 전에 정책 방향을 바꿔야 한다고 강조한다. 달러 붕괴 시 미국 내 손실이 크지만 해외, 특히 신흥국은 순이익을 얻을 것이라고 본다. 금은 인플레이션·디폴트 상황 모두에서 상승하며 궁극적 안전자산이 될 것이라고 주장한다. 달러의 기축통화 지위는 상실될 가능성이 있으며, 대안은 법정화폐가 아닌 금 기반 화폐라고 주장한다. 1971년 금태환 중단은 임시 조치였고 달러는 사실상 금을 기반으로 했으나 이후 사실상 디폴트였다고 평가한다. 각국 통화가 금에 연동되는 국제 금 본위 체제를 지지한다.
다듬은 글
is the US facing a currency crisis as well as a sovereign debt crisis and is the Dollar on life support I think the answer is yes the only question is when I mean clearly we're not having that crisis right now because our creditors for whatever reason still maintain confidence in the future of purchasing power of the dollar they still have confidence in the fed the charade that we just went through over the debt ceiling should really be shattering that confidence because number one we spent months threatening to fall basically letting our creditors know that we may in fact the fall and that they were low man on the totem pole because during these discussions of raising the debt ceiling nobody said we're going to prioritize bondholders they basically said if we can't borrow more money the first thing we're going to do is default on the money we've already borrowed and so that is an official admission that the U.S treasury is running nothing more than a Ponzi scheme we're only going to pay back the money we've already borrowed if we can find new people to lend us more right we're not going to just tax people to make good on these commitments we're going to rely 100 percent on new borrowers and so that is the pure definition of a Ponzi scheme the only difference is it's being run by the government instead of a private citizen but it's still not going to work right positive schemes can't work by definition but then the other problem with this is the rationale right or the pretense for the debt ceiling increase was that America always pays its bills and we need to raise the debt ceiling so we can keep paying our bills well it's actually the opposite the reason we have to raise the debt ceiling is because we never pay our bills let's talk about alternatives to actually just keep on printing money keep on going to the bondholders and you spoke about like that brinkmanship and the lead up to the debt ceiling that did the US no favors at all if there are Cuts in government spending what sector gets cut well obviously when you're running two trillion dollar a year deficits which the US is you've got to make that up you've either got to cut spending or raise taxes now personally I would like to see everything through spending cuts but to the extent that we need additional taxes it should be through a consumption-based tax at least the United States not higher income taxes but some type of value-added tax sales tax or something like that that isn't as economically destructive as taxing work in production you want to tax consumption but we really need significant across-the-board spending cuts and not just fraud waste and abuse we need to actually cut real spending now immediately and significantly including things that are off the table like Social Security Medicare government pensions we have to cut defense spending and there are a lot of agencies and departments that I think can be completely eliminated a lot of spending can be cut because if we don't do that there is no way that we can handle this debt in fact even if we do that I still don't think we can handle it without a restructuring of the debt which means that we have to tell our creditors honestly that you know we owe 32 trillion dollars we cannot pay it back the taxpayer just simply doesn't have the resources to make good on these commitments so we need a restructuring here we're not going to give you 100 cents on a dollar maybe 50 cents on the dollar I don't know what the number is okay but owners of U.S treasuries around the world need to experience some pain along with everybody else because I don't think the American voters are going to put up with the government saying you're not going to get the Social Security benefits we promised you but the Chinese are going to get 100 of what we promised them on on their treasuries I think everybody is going to have to take a haircut to avoid a crew cut uh and that would be inflation because once you recognize that the debt is unpayable the only question is how do we you know default on it or restructure it we can do it honestly the way I would like to do it which would actually be better for everybody or we could just print money until the money has no value and we have runaway inflation in which case our creditors will actually be worse off I would rather get back 50 cents on the dollar but have the dollar maintain its value then get back all my dollars but have them lose 90 percent of their purchasing power or more if we're looking at that and we keep on going down this road on this trajectory is hyperinflation down the line do you think that could be well if we stay on this road then hyperinflation is a foregone conclusion it is a absolute certainty so the only way to avoid hyperinflation is to get off the road but the question is when do we turn off you know how long do we wait before before we change course like hyperinflation of Argentina and other countries around the world that means something to those citizens but hyperinflation the US dollar well that's Global oh yeah what does that look like I don't know we've never seen it right yeah so we haven't had hyperinflation in a reserve currency yeah like like like the us but I do think that the most pain will be felt in America and because Americans have benefited dramatically from the dollar status because it allows Americans of course I'm an American but it allows us to live beyond our means because we don't have to produce to consume we can just produce money which costs nothing that we just create out of thin air and we can exchange that paper money for the real Goods that are produced by hard-working people around the world in factories you know and and those goods you know aren't created at a thin air they take real resources land labor Capital things like that and those resources could have been used for something else instead they were used to produce stuff for Americans so we get a benefit we also get to borrow money cheaper because we get to borrow what everybody else saves Americans don't save anything so where does the credit come from it comes from the rest of the world so when the dollar crashes that's actually going to be a net positive outside the United States particularly the Emerging Markets because I think the people there have borne The Lion's Share of the burden of propping up the US economy so I think they have the most to gain from the crash of the dollar but of course you know there are people all around the world that own a lot of times you know and so to the extent that they're Overexposed to the dollar uh they're going to experience some losses so just like when we had a financial crisis it wasn't confined to the United States because people in Sweden for example owned mortgage-backed Securities from the United States so you know we've spread the bad paper all around the world so it's going to be felt all around the world but I think on balance it's going to be a positive outside the United States but a huge negative at least in the short term for the United States so so yeah that that does brings us to the combination of restructuring the debt going to International bondholders of U.S treasuries and send to them we're gonna have to restructure this you're gonna have to take a hit internally you're going to have to take a hit if this doesn't happen we could see hyperinflation but then let's bring in what happens with gold what happens with stores of value in this environment and this macroeconomic environment well I think no matter what Gold's going up I mean obviously under hyperinflation that's when it goes up the most yeah and I hope that we avoid that I mean I own a lot of gold and Gold stock so I would personally benefit as an investor from that but I don't want that to happen you know I would prefer an alternative course but even devaluation default I think is going to be bullish for gold um because I think gold is going to emerge either way as the preeminent store value Safe Haven and I think that the dollars status as the reserve currency is going to be lost okay and then the question is what is going to replace it and a lot of people think that the dollar status is not at Jeopardy because they don't see a viable alternative but they're looking in the wrong place they're looking at uh you know Sterling or they're looking at the Euro or they're looking at the Yen or the r b and they're saying hey those currencies aren't ready to be the reserve and I would agree we don't need another fiat currency to act as a reserve we need real money we need gold gold was the reserve for all currencies prior to Brentwood and even after Bretton Wood when the dollar was the reserve it was only a reserve because it was backed and redeemable in gold in fact the dollar was defined as a waiting gold that's why it was considered as good as gold so we've really only been on a Fiat standard since 1971.
so about 50 years a little bit more that was only meant to be temporary Nixon's gold chalk oh initially sure okay so it still could be temporary only it lasted yes well if the dollar were if we were to go back on the gold standard the question is would the world trust us because we already screwed them over once in fact you know when we talk about the debt ceiling and everybody said America has never defaulted on its commitments that was a lie because Federal Reserve notes were obligations to pay gold and up until 1971 you know if you were in Britain and you had 35 dollars you could get an ounce of gold that was the commitment that we made to the world and then we defaulted on that and we gave them nothing it wasn't just that we gave them 50 cents on the dollar right or we didn't say okay we'll give you a half an ounce of gold for your 35 we'll give you no gold it was a complete default um so I don't think any one country should be able to issue a reserve I think that the real Reserve should be gold and we should all be on a Level Playing Field if you want gold you have to earn it so either you have to mine it or you have to produce something that you could trade yeah the gold is somebody else mine but we need an honest monetary system that keeps governments in check because if we had sound money we wouldn't have all this inflation we wouldn't have all these budget deficits because they're not possible under a sound monetary system so you suggesting multiple gold-backed currencies across the world they should all be gold back
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