저자: RayDalio · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오는 장기 부채 사이클 말기에 금리 상승과 달러 신뢰 약화 위험이 크다며 현금·채권 보유에 부정적이고 분산투자를 강조한다. [핵심 주장] 미국 정부 부채 증가와 채권 공급 증가로 세계 채권 수요가 부족해질 수 있고, 이 경우 연준이 금리 인상이나 긴축을 늦추거나 다시 돈을 찍는 방식으로 대응해야 해 화폐적 인플레이션으로 이어질 수 있다고 봤다. [근거 수치] 실질금리가 마이너스인 환경에서는 현금 보유 시 인플레이션만큼 구매력이 깎이며, 인플레이션이 연 3% 안팎이 될 수 있다고 언급했다. 기업 이익 비중은 매출의 약 6%에서 14% 수준으로 늘어 임금 몫이 줄었다고 지적했다. [언급 종목·방향] 금리 상승기에는 장기 듀레이션 주식, 기술주, 사모펀드, 벤처캐피털이 조정받을 수 있다고 언급했다. 특정 종목 가격 목표는 없다. [조건·리스크] 부채 디레버리징, 정치적 좌우 갈등, 중국 부상과 세계질서 변화, 달러 기축통화 지위 약화가 주요 리스크로 제시됐다. 자산 간 상관관계를 고려한 균형 포트폴리오(올웨더)로 리스크를 줄이라고 권고하며, 시장 타이밍은 하지 말라고 했다. [출연자 전망] 장기간 미국 시장의 저수익이 이어질 수 있다고 전망했다. 과거 사이클 연구 경험을 근거로 한 장기 견해로, 단기 방향 예측은 명확하지 않다.
다듬은 글
people now cash is relatively attractive right so it's attractive in relation to bonds it's actual interactive around shielded stocks you have the classic movement of course as rates go up and money becomes tight you lose the parts of the economy the parts of the market that are the bubble parts that needed the cash flow are you prepared for an economic collapse Ray Dalia warns that it's not a matter of if but when I think we have squeezed a lot out of the U.S market I think we're an environment that we are going to have low returns going forward for a very very long time Ray Dalia one of the most renowned Financial minds of our time issues of warning about the looming economic collapse that could shake the very Foundation of our financial systems and Change the World As We Know It real issue is that we have a supply demand issue of uh bonds because we're going to have to sell a lot of bonds to those um in the world who own Bond inventories and they have very low interest rates um negative real interest rates and they're overweighted in U.S bonds and they're gonna have to buy a lot more as the world's economy has become increasingly unstable it's essential to listen to the wisdom of experts like Ray dalio and take action to protect our financial future well um there's to ways of dealing with debt you pay it back in hard money or you pay it back in soft money you pay it back in hard money and you have um a problem um you have a depression so throughout history uh whenever that was done paid back in hard money eventually that was abandoned and you uh print money that was what 71 was that was what March 1933 was I think that what you have to think about is the value of money how much money does one have in debt instruments and um do you want to own that as an asset I I think it I think they're Bad Assets and so uh and then how do you diversify and the system also has to deal with what is money what is money is uh is the dollar going to remain um the same sort of Reserve currency by understanding the underlying forces at play and implementing effective strategies we can position ourselves to weather the storms ahead and emerge stronger on the other side the important thing to know about this crisis and that it happened in the 1930s is that in order to get the checks that we're needing you know a lot of people a lot of companies um the checks now where will thou those checks come from so there'll be checks from the government the type of support we're going to receive is two types of support where's this all this money come from so that the government when they say I'm going to pay more for unemployment insurance or I'm going to give you a loan for a small business or so on they where they get the money from well they've either tax it but if they tax it that's bad so the government they can borrow it that's what a deficit is the government runs a deficit and then the question is who's going to borrow it when everybody's financially strapped and the Federal Reserve says they have the power to print money and they will say I will borrow it and I I will lend you the money so the Federal Reserve is lending the money and it is also lending others the money well the uh the things that I thought about some of the things I mentioned earlier the plan for uh the worst case scenario and make it terrific is one of the things um the understanding how to triangulate well to deal with whatever problems that you're going to face and how to work that through to find the PATH and find your nature but also uh one thing that's helped me a lot is meditation that uh um meditation gives you a calmness an Equanimity so that you can almost look at your circumstances and you can navigate it with a Clarity of thought without all of that stress it's healthy because it reduces stress and it also makes you smarter to make the decisions well so I would say that that would also be something that I would recommend because if if if you have the Equanimity that centeredness that comes centeredness and you have your plan and you triangulate well with others so that you can get all the best advice and don't have to approach it in your own head you know you're a long way there there's productivity over a period of time our living standards rise because we learn how to do things better and the output per man-hour a work increases and that moves at a fairly it'll go up and down its Pace but by and large it's not what causes volatility and around that we have two debt Cycles we have a short-term debt cycle which we understand because that's the business cycle you know you're in a recession Central Bank sees monetary policy they change the um relationship between short-term interest rate long-term interest rates asset prices for liquidity in and then um you have debt growth the credit is spending power so when you extend credit you are extending uh spending power and when and that's good for the economy when that credit can be paid back and what it does of course is it pushes asset prices up while levels of debt continue to increase and at that part of the cycle people and everybody sort of con conservative about that and it pays back but asset prices when you say payback you mean the borrowers have the ability to service that debt even as asset prices rise that's right and everybody wins and that's good credit growth and it's a wonderful thing um then as you get later in the cycle it's a very self-reinforcing cycle because as asset prices go up you have more collateral people are more confident they believe asset prices will continue to rise they become a little bit less careful in terms of that kind of lending they extrapolate that into the future e-cycle that I saw was brought about by seeing three important forces that I hadn't seen in my lifetime before but happened many times in history which is why I needed to study them at cycle over the last 500 years first as you point out one governments run out of money they need more money than they can get uh they print a lot of they create a lot of debt and they print a lot of money and at the bases that money uh we have had the largest debt increases and money Creations particularly in the leading worlds Reserve currency the dollar although that's been true in the Euro and it's been true in the end too um and that has a big effect the second of those influences is really a political and social uh influence which is the conflict between the left and the right uh populism um often typically due to large wealth gaps and opportunity gaps which exist in the United States now and then third as far as the changing World Order is the relative decline of the United States and Rise of China and other countries India for example of course has improved its position many countries so that um when the New World Order began in 1945 World orders come after a war and then the victors in that war determine how things should go when in 1945 when the United States won the war it was the richest country in the world it had 80 percent of the world's gold and gold was money and it had half the world economy World half of world GDP and it had a monopoly on the military power and it was the dominant oil power foreign that creates a supply demand issue that could create a monetary inflation because um there will not be enough demand to buy those bonds and that means that it's likely that the Federal Reserve will not be able to taper or cut back and might actually have to increase to prevent interest rates from going up and That's a classic monetary inflation so that's my bigger concern um than uh just the the spurt I think for most of the world the real question is what if our interest rates relative to inflation and also what is happening with all this liquidity because there's a huge amount of liquidity and negative real interest rates and that means that it pays not to own any debt instruments that pays not to own cash certainly not cash where you get no interest rate in an environment Like Larry says of some amount of significant inflation I think going to be let's say in the vicinity of over three percent so you get taxed at that rate in terms of buying power and so when I look at that I think you're going to see the continued inflation in in other assets and it pays to borrow a lot I know like in to borrow houses right now I mean to buy I'm seeing interest only loans being made when there's basically no interest rate in other words you don't have to pay back your principal anytime soon and you and the interest rates are so low so there's a lot of money being thrown around that way those are the things that concern me more because you build up a bubble you saw the reaction in the markets when the FED just even entered a tightening I don't think they can tighten a lot without having a big negative effect so that's what it looks like to me the whole picture of the low real interest rates and then also the worries about the supply demand monetary inflation and also the Fed tightening you know the way it works is you sell a lot of bonds uh so now who do you sell the bonds to and then when I look around and calculate who owns the bonds and uh what they have to buy um and what the incentives of buying uh they're they're bad and in fact you could see the dollar uh selling of bonds what that means is then the Federal Reserve is in a position of either seeing rates rise because there's not enough demand to meet that in fact if they start selling it would be a very bad situation and that they can't let that happen because that would be very bad for the economy and and markets and all sorts of things so we have to keep in mind where we are we're at the end of a long-term debt cycle and that means that the Federal Reserve will have to do what they did last time which is to buy a lot more to prevent the interest rates from going up that's very non-cyclical it's one of those cases where you know in reserve currencies it's a it's a very dangerous thing people now cash is relatively attractive right so it's attractive in relation to bonds it's actually attractive around Shield of stocks you have the classic movement of course as rates go up and money becomes tight you lose the parts of the economy the parts of the market that are the bubble parts that needed the cash flow right right so you're seeing it reflected in um not only you know long duration stocks those that didn't have cash use so you see the tech stocks come down all of that come down you see private Equity you see Venture Capital because they needed cash all of that comes down a lot of things depend on a lot of other things and the world and everything readjust what has to happen I think is investors most importantly have to realize two things first that uh cash is not a safe investment is not a safe place because it will be taxed by inflation there will not be an interest rate that will anywhere near compensate and it seems good because it's not volatile that you're paying a tax of a few percent a year on that so A stay out of that and then B know how to balance a portfolio because the way portfolios work it's almost like um for some part something happens another thing happens in other words what what you can see in the markets today is that um let's say when equities go down because growth expectations falter and there's a greater likelihood of easing then you see the bond market go up and when you see other markets go old you're seeing watch the market action on every day and you could see those relationships by be wealth is not destroyed as much as it is transferred and if you know how to balance those Investments we we do it at a what we call an all-weather portfolio but if you know how to balance those Investments that's the most important thing be in a safe well-balanced portfolio you can uh reduce your risk without reducing your return and you can you will not Market time this because even if you were a great Market timer your the things that are happening can change the world so it changes what should be priced into the market yeah things that worry about me are um the whole shift um in terms of the quantity of debt money that's being produced that goes into create bubbles creates an enormous amount of liquidity um and that I think will be manifest by either a rate rise tracing inflation or um or a dollar Decline and I think then we also have to deal with the changes in um um in the uh the political situation the wealth Gap situation the um um the well with the wealth Gap is the left right question um there's a lot of conflict in terms of left-right politics there's there's a big move pretty much probably to a more left politics believing that there's not enough fair share of incomes and and so on and those great structural changes that will have um effects the amount of money which is has gone to profits has increased from about six percent of Revenue to about uh 14 of Revenue and that's decreased the share that's gone to incomes those types those things can be structural changes um that shift um the um wealth and income I think that we're here to uh those that are going to be more beneficial let's say to workers than to um capitalists I think in general that's a particularly a U.S issue it is a European issue too although it's a world issue but it differs around the world so um I think those are the bigger issues that and the rise of China and what the rise of China means those that I think are the bigger issues foreign
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