저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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결론: 하워드 막스는 금리가 제로 근처였던 2009~2021년의 쉬운 돈 시대가 끝나고 금리가 2~4%대로 정상화되는 '대전환(sea change)'기에 진입했으니 투자자는 포트폴리오를 그에 맞게 바꿔야 한다고 주장하지만, 단기 가격 방향은 예측하지 않는다. 금리 환경: 1980년 연준기금금리 20%에서 2020년 제로까지 40년간 금리 하락이 금융시장의 가장 중요한 사건이었다고 평가한다. 현재 5.25~5.5% 수준의 기금금리는 경기와 인플레이션을 식히기 위한 긴축 수준이며, 인플레가 가라앉으면 기금금리는 현재보다 낮은 수준에서 안정될 것으로 본다. 금리 전망: 향후 수년간 연준기금금리는 0~2%보다 2~4% 사이에 머물 가능성이 높다고 본다. 실질 기금금리가 양(+)이 되도록 2~4%가 중립 수준이라는 입장이며, 극저금리는 차입자와 자산보유자에게 보조금을 주고 저축자를 벌하는 비정상 상태라고 평가한다. 투자 철학: 1970년 이전 투자는 위험 회피, 이후는 위험의 지능적 감수가 핵심이었고, 이 변화가 세 번째 전환의 문턱에 있을 수 있다고 본다. 그러나 단기(6개월) 시장 예측은 불가능하다고 강조한다. 행동 원칙: 6개월 뒤 경기 전망을 근거로 포트폴리오를 통째로 바꾸지 말 것, 고객은 10~30년 관점으로 투자해야 한다는 주장이다. 공포로 매도하고 낙관으로 매수하는 타이밍 시도는 역효과이므로 '꾸준히 가라(steady as you go)'가 더 낫다고 말한다. 버블 및 리스크: 2009~2021년 자산 상승은 비합리적 과열이라기보다 쉬운 돈 환경이 만든 이례적 호황이며, 앞으로 정상이 아니라고 본다. 파산은 손실 누적보다 만기 도래 시 차환 실패에서 주로 발생하며, 쉬운 자금 시대가 끝나면 부실 기업이 늘어날 수 있다. 미국 달러: 달러는 기축통화라 단기적으로 무한정 찍어낼 수 있어 당장 붕괴하지 않는다고 보지만, 장기 방향은 알 수 없다는 입장이다. 투자 방법론: 2단계 사고(second-level thinking)를 강조한다. 좋은 기업이라는 1단계 판단이 아니라 시장 전체가 이미 알고 있는 것을 넘어서는 통찰이 있어야 초과수익이 가능하다고 본다. 출연자 전망 요약: 막스는 금리는 장기적으로 2~4% 수준에 정착할 것이라는 장기 견해를 밝혔고, 특정 자산의 단기 방향에 대한 예측은 하지 않았다.
다듬은 글
the great investors are right 60% 70% maybe 80% of the time if you're the kind of person who has to be right all the time you shouldn't be in it before the 70s the job of the investor was to avoid risk uh after the 70s it was to intelligently take risk and that was a big change Howard marks the herald of investment opportunities emerges with a proclamation that resonates through the financial corridors a call to seize what he deems the most significant investment window in four decades you have to think of something they haven't thought of you have to know something they haven't thought of you have to think at a at a level which is different and more sophisticated by definition not easy it's about Fair what I would say is that since 19 remember in 1980 the FED funds rate was 20 and I had a loan outstanding from A Bank at 22 and a quter 40 years later the FED funds rate was zero and I had a loan outstanding from a bank at 2 and a quarter so the decline of interest rates by 20 percentage points over that period was a dominant factor in the financial world I think it was the most important single event in the financial world in the last 50 years doesn't get the credit my first book was called the most important thing and an interviewer last week said to me well what's the least important thing for investors and I thought for a minute I I hadn't had that question before the least important thing is the short run I do think that today's fed funds rate of 5 and a qu to 5 a half is a restrictive measure designed to cool off the economy and inflation and when the inflation abates as it seems to be in the process I think that they'll that the FED funds rate will settle out lower uh than it is today everybody's obsessed with what is going to be inflation over the next 6 months what will the Central Bank do to in terms of interest rates to fight the inflation and will the changes in interest rates produce a recession this is what everybody wants to know and consequently of course what will happen to security prices in the next 6 months and the answer is it doesn't matter Warren Buffett always talks about Ted Williams who batted 400 that means 60% of the time he was out at the plate uh the great investors are right 60% 70% maybe 80% of the time if you're the kind of person who has to be right all the time you shouldn't be in it there is a part in C change where I talk about the fact that uh a guy says oh we can buy this company and make 10% a year then he turns to his Capital markets person says what will it cost to get the money we can borrow at eight borrow at eight invest at 10 great we do it you buy the company but in the in the stimulated environment of low interest rates the company does better you make more than 10 your cost of money declines from 8 to 6 to 5 and you it costs you less to borrow the money and you say boy I'm a genius with a fervor in his words he illuminates the landscape of financial prospects urging investors to mobilize and position themselves for the rare chance that history has presented well a sea change is a major transformation of the environment a complete change in attitudes Etc and I suspect that we that we may be at the beginning of one uh the first one was the uh the fall of interest rates uh from 20 to zero between 80 and uh 1980 and 2020 which had very very positive effects the second was the opening of investors Minds to what we call risk return analysis and before the 70s the job of the investor was to avoid risk uh after the 70s it was to intelligently take risk and that was a big change and I think that we may be uh on the door step of of the third in the period 09 through 13 the FED took the FED funds rate to zero to fight the global financial crisis left it there a long time and didn't have any luck getting it back up into what you might think are normal ranges so we had a low interest rate environment which made life very easy for borrowers asset owners it was easy to run a business the economy was was did well we had the longest bull market in history the longest economic recovery in history uh we had very low incidence of default and bankruptcy it was an easy world and if if you read articles about for example Silicon Valley Bank they talk about the Easy Money environment and the main point of SE change is we're no longer in an easy money environment his words resonate with a sense of urgency cascading like a waterfall of financial potential urging all to capitalize on this fleeting moment that may shape fortunes for generations to come since the FED central banks around the world and the treasury took strong action to solve the global financial crisis in ' 0809 uh we have been living in a highly stimulated very positive uh easy money environment uh for uh roughly 14 years and uh I think that you know a lot of people began to invest or came into the business in those 14 years not too many have a perspective on the period for the global financial crisis and and and uh uh they may think that the last 14 years was normaly I don't think so I think it was the best imaginable period for borrowers and for asset owners uh and I don't think that it's necessarily going to continue I think that what I said in the memo is that rates are likely to be between two and four not between Zer and two the FED funds rate and uh you know between Z and to is uh an emergency measure and you know rates were the FED funds rate was Zero much of the probably the majority of the time in the 09 to 21 period and that's inappropriate it's it it it it stimulates you you can't live on a of adrenaline every morning for 13 years and it it does uh uh subsidize borrowers and penalize lenders and Savers um and I would like to see a Fed get to a neutral position which is neither stimulative nor restrictive and I I and I I describ that as 2 to four if inflation's two then the FED funds rate should be higher than that so that there's a positive real fed funds rate well a bubble uh most people take a bubble to mean irrational appreciation and uh the the asset appreciation in that period was not uh terribly positive it wasn't an unusual uh 14-year period in terms of uh asset returns Etc and it it wasn't the the result of uh uh unrealistically optimistic thinking so I bubble I think has a specific use but it was a it was a hyped uh unusually positive uh period of when everything was easy uh for certain classes of uh of people uh as I said before borrowers and asset owners in particular uh and it isn't normaly and it's not I don't think going to be the norm going forward within this Clarion call unfolds a tapestry of financial strategy inviting everyone to participate in this once in a-lifetime opportunity and navigate the turbulent currents of investment if you came into this business since 1980 which is almost everybody you have only seen declining interest rates or ultra low interest rates people tend to say well that's what it's been for 40 years that's normal that's what it's going to be but no you have to recognize it that's why I call the sea change cuz you have to recognize this is an important pivot some people come up to me and say yes you're right interest rates are are low nobody has said this is a major change as you say it is but you know if if it's the change I think it is then what you should have in your portfolio going forward can be very different from what it has been and and so far uh I have not had uh resounding support for that position number one we really can't know much about the short run number two if we develop an opinion about the short run we shouldn't have too much confidence in it it's it's hard to get that right number three nobody should change their portfolio Wholesale in response to what they think is going to happen over over the next 6 months and number four it's not the next 6 months isn't what matters my clients and your clients should be investing for the next 10 20 30 years and if you have a position today what happens in the next 6 months is probably not going to affect the the outcome of the next 20 30 years and so why does everybody care about it so much and the answer is it's kind of like social media it's all around us people are talking about it all the time the newspapers talk about it Talking Heads on TV talk about it and everybody gets on TV and they said well you think there's going to be recession in six months no I don't think so yes I think they're bad not too bad but pretty bad this isn't what matters and and people drive themselves nuts uh with these matters and they hurt their performance because look at look at the markets today the markets are welding down and everybody's afraid about what's going to happen in the next 6 months the spotlight Narrows on Howard marks a luminary of financial Insight beckoning us to seize this momentous chance and make a mark in the annals of financial prosperity I don't think that we should expect I don't think it's prudent to expect to have stimulative rates all the time you know I I describe that as as taking a of adrenaline every morning I don't think it's very viable um uh we'll see lower rates well first of all when the when it when the battle against inflation is one I think rates will the the FED will bring the FED funds rate back down um and uh we'll see uh very low rates again if there's a recession that has to be uh cured um uh over time but I just think that you know people got so used to zero rates of interest you know the fed the FED brought the the FED funds rate to zero uh later 8 to fight the global financial crisis and left it there for seven years and had a of a Time raising it because it thought it it should it thought that we shouldn't permanently be at zero but but the markets had tantrums and resisted um I don't I don't think that uh you know what I say in the memo I don't make many predictions I don't believe in predictions including my own we don't bet on predictions at Oak Tree but what I said in the memo is I think that for the next several years the FED funds rate is more likely to average between 2 and four than between 0 and two the things we're trying to do for our clients are simple but they're not easy you know when I say get in get out turn aggressive turn defensive make Superior uh security selections security company selections I'm done it's a simple explanation of what our goal is it's just not easy to do because everybody's crying and this is a competitive this is a competitive activity investing you know you're compete you're competing to have Superior Returns versus everybody else so clearly you have to do something different from what other people do and something better than what other people do in this age of financial Awakening Howard Marx stands as a guide urging us all to venture into the financial realm with precision and conviction for the potential rewards May shape the trajectory of wealth for decades to come this period of 09 through 21 easy period easy to get money so most bankruptcies don't occur because you have a business and it loses money loses money loses money goes away it occurs because it a business borrows money times get tough and when it goes to refinance that loan nobody ever repays their debts they just refinance it and when they go to the bank to refinance it the bank says you're not as good a credit as you used to be or we don't have as much money to lend as we used to have or our standards are higher so it's it it really comes from most uh most bankruptcies or defaults are associated with a maturity which is unmet and I think that when we when you go through a period when it's super easy to raise money for any purpose or no purpose and you go into a period when it's difficult to raise money even for a good purpose clearly many more companies are going to found if people get out today because they're concerned about what's going to happen in the next six months and it's going to be very hard to to decide when to get back in because if the market goes down it's going to be because the news is terrible and and if the news is terrible most people are not going to have the intestinal fortitude to get back in and they'll probably miss a rise so you can't do that timing thing very well you might as well abstain from trying in my opinion because most of your efforts are going to be counterproductive you're going to sell because you're depressed which means prices are depressed and things are on sale that's not the right time to sell and you're going to buy when you feel good and usually your good feelings will coincide with buoyant meaning high- priced markets and that's not the time to buy so Steady As You Go is a much better idea than in out in out right now the US dollar is what's called The Reserve currency of the world and we get to print them and we can print in the short run we can print as many as we want and as long as that's the case uh we're not going to go under um uh it's like if you have an unlimited checking account you can pay your credit card bills without without limitation um we just don't know where it's going that's the problem uh and uh you know uh people uh this business about using uh a a uh a default as a negotiating tool is very very dangerous the first level thinker says this is a good company we should buy their Securities most people look at it and see the same thing but the second level thinker says it's a good comp but it's not as good as everybody thinks so it's going to produce a disappointment we should sell their Securities you see and you're just thinking through to a new level you're thinking through to the ramifications of of what everybody thinks uh and um I think that uh again it's simple to to explain the goal it's just not easy to do um but uh that's why uh there are superior and inferior investors that's why some people have good long-term records and some people don't survive for the long term uh because it's not easy
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