저자: CharlieMunger · 외국인
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찰리 멍거는 액티브 운용사의 '대부분은 지수를 이길 수 없다'는 현실을 부정(denial)하는 업계 문제를 지적한다. 약 5%만 지속적으로 시장을 이긴다고 보며, 수수료 구조의 도덕적 문제와 지수 투자의 한계(지수 쏠림, 자금 집중 시 자기파괴적 상황)를 논한다. 개인 투자자에게는 소수 기회를 포착하는 인내와 자기 절제를 강조한다.
다듬은 글
if you want a an example of how denial is affecting things take the world of investment management the problem is the whole thing can't work perfectly forever and and but it'll work for a long time I don't think there is an easy way to handle a problem of doing better and better with finances and if you had asked Warren Buffett the same thing that this investment counseling did give me your best idea this year and you just followed Warren's best idea you would find it work beautifully in the financial world's delicate dance Charlie Munga unveils the harsh truth Perfection is an unsustainable illusion now a place like berer haway or even the Daily Journal we've done better than average and now there's a question why has that happened why has that happened and the answer is is pretty simple we tried to do less we never had the illusion we could just hire a bunch of bright young people and they would know more than anybody about caned soup and Aerospace and utilities and so on and so on and so on we never had that dreaming how many managers are going to beat the indexes all cost considered I would say maybe 5% % consistently be the averages munga's piercing Insight reveals that a mere 5% of active investors consistently outperform the averages leaving others in a state of denial in other words you if you get too much fishness in one sector or in one narrow index of course you can get catastrophic changes like like they had with the nifty50 in in that former era I don't see that happening when the index is is 3/4 of the whole Market we never thought we could get really useful information on all subjects like Jen Kramer pretends pretends to have and and we always realized that we worked very hard we could find a few things where we were right and the few things were enough and that that was a reasonable expectation that is a very different way to approach the process the majority lost in denial cling to Hefty fees unaware that their financial Maneuvers bring little benefit to their clients everybody else is living in a state of extreme denial they're used to charging big fees and so forth for stuff that isn't doing their clients any good it's a deep moral depravity if some Widow comes to you with $500,000 and you charge her one point a year for and you could put her in the indexes but you need the the one point JP Morgan talked everybody into buying just 50 stocks and they didn't care what the price was they just bought those 50 stocks and of course in due time their own buying forced those 50 stocks up to 60 times earnings whereupon it broke and everything went down by about 2/3 quite fast facing an unpleasant reality people resort to mental tricks deceiving themselves into believing the Inconvenient Truth isn't unfolding but he wasn't trying to know the whole he would give you one or two stocks he had more limited Ambitions I had a grandfather who was very useful to me my mother's grandfather and he was a Pioneer and he came out to Iowa with no money but Youth and health and took it away from the Indians he fought in the blackhaw he was a captain in the Blackhawk and he he stayed there and he bought cheap land and he he he was aggressive and intelligent and so forth and eventually he was the richest man in the town and on the bank and and uh and highly regarded and a huge family and a very happy life among a disects The Dilemma of indexes a modern challenge unhear of in the past presenting a complex problem for investment professionals if I had to name one factor that dominates human bad decisions it would be what I call denial if the truth is unpleasant enough people kind of their mind plays tricks on them and they they think it it isn't really happening and of course that causes enormous destruction of business where people go on throwing money into the way they used to do things even it isn't going to work at all well in the way the world is now having changed indexes IMG as the nemsis in mongus narrative posing a formidable obstacle for those navigating the intricate world of Finance the indexes have cause just absolute agony among intelligent investment professionals because basically 95% of the people have almost no chance of of beating it over time and it's and yet lot of the people expect if they have some money they can hire somebody who will let them beat the indexes and of course the honest sensible people know they're selling something they can't quite deliver and that has to be Agony most you will handle that with denial they think it it'll be better next year they just don't want to think about it and I understand that I don't think about my own death either but but it's a terrible problem beeting those indexes and and it's a problem that investment professionals didn't happen in the past and what's happening of course is that the the prices for managing really big sums of money are going down down down 20 basis points and so on uh the people who Rose in Investment Management didn't do it by getting paid basis points but that's where we're going I think in terms of people who manage big portfolios of of say American equities in the equivalent of the S&P so it's a huge huge problem and it it makes your generation of money managers have way more difficulties than and causes a lot of worry and fretfulness and I think the people who are worried and fretful are absolutely right Echo in the wisdom of his grandfather Munga imparts invaluable lessons that transcend the complexities of the financial realm and so people just charge some Widow you know a considerable fee for worthless advice and the whole profession is full of that kind of denial it's everywhere I would hate to manage a trillion dollars in the big stock and try and beat the indexes I don't think I can do it in fact if you look at berer take out 100 decisions which is like two a year the success of bercher came from two decisions a year over 50 years we're hardly great we we may have beaten the indexes but we didn't do it by having big portfolios of Securities and having subdivisions managing the subdivisions and and so no the indexes are a problem for you people but you know why should shouldn't life be hard I I it's it's what had to happen what's what's happened now if you take these people doing some of those early trading by computer algorithms that worked then somebody else would come into the same thing with the same algorithm and play the same game and of course the returns went down well that's what's happening in the whole field is the returns you're really going to get are being pushed down by by the progress of the Suns shareholder queries find candid answers in munga's discourse at the Daily Journal unraveling ing insights into the investment landscape he had the attitude having come out to Iowa when the land was not much more than a dollar an acre and having stayed there until that black top soil created a modern Rich civilization in some of the best land in the world his attitude was that in a favored life like his when you were located in the right place you just got a few opportunities if you lived to be about 90 and the trick in coming out well was seizing a few opportunities that were your fair share that came along when they did and he told that story over and over again to the grandchildren hung around him all somewhere and my mother who had no interest in money remembered the story and told it to me but I'm not my mother's natural imitator and I knew Grandpa was right and so I always knew from the very first when I was a little boy that the opportunities that were important that were going to come to me were few and that the trick was to prepare myself for seizing the few that came this is not the attitude they have at a big investment counseling thing they think if they study a million things they can know a million things and that of course the result is almost nobody can outperform an index whereas I sit here with my Daily Journal stock my birer haway stock my Holdings in leelu's Asian fund my Costco stock and of course I'm outperforming everybody and I'm 95 years old and I practically never have a transaction and the answer is I'm right and they're wrong and that's why it's worked for me and not for them and now the question is do you want to be more like me or more like them mongus No Nonsense advice Rings clear shed your foolish Notions swiftly and steer clear of dubious characters to secure success so so I had to say and that was I always quote deas was a long time ago deos that's 2,000 more than 2,000 years ago and he said what people wish is what they believe think of how much of that goes on and so it's of course it's hugely important and you can just see it I would say the agency costs in Money Management there are just so many billions you it's uncountable and nobody can face it who who wants to you to keep your kids in school you you need the fees you need the brokerage commissions you need this or that so you do what's good for you and bad for them now I I don't think Berkshire does that and I don't think we Garen and I did it as a Daily Journal Garen and I never took a time and salary or director's fees or anything and if I have business I talk on my phone or use my car I don't charge it to the Daily Journal that's unheard of it shouldn't be unheard of and it goes on in Berkshire and it goes out in the Daily Journal obviously if you're glued together and honorable and get up every morning and keep doing it and keep learning every day and you are willing to go in for a lot of defer gratification all your life you're going to succeed it may not be as much as you want but it you're going to succeed and so the main thing is to just keep in there and be glued together and and get rid of your stupidities as fast as you can avoid the bad people as much as you can and you you'll do reasonably well but try teaching that to your grandchildren I think the only way you got a chance is sort of by example so if you want to improve your grandchildren the best way is to fix yourself as the discussion deepens Munger explores the theoretical limits of index funds pondering if there's a point where their efficacy falters we have an incentive plan now in this journal Technologies and it has a million dollars worth of Daily Journal stock that did not come from the company issuing those shares I gave those shares to the company to use in compensating the employees and I learned that trick so to speak from the guy at byd which is one of the Securities we hold in our Securities portfolio and byd at one time in its history the founder chairman he didn't use the company's stock to reward the executives he used his own stock it was a big reward too well last year what happened byd last year made more than $2 billion after taxes in the auto business in China who in the makes $2 billion was a brand new entr really in the auto business for all practical purposes it's incredible what's happened and so there is some of this oldfashioned capitalist virtue left in the Daily Journal and there's some left in Berkshire haway and there's some left in byd but but most places everybody's trying to take what they need and just rationalizing whether it's deserved or not well the index funds of the S&P is like 75% of the market so I don't think the exact problem you're talking about is going to be a big big problem if you're talking about the SCP index but but is there a point where index funds theoretically can't work of course if everybody bought nothing but index funds the whole world wouldn't work as people expect there's also the problem one of the reasons you buy a big index like the S&P is because if you buy a small index and it gets popular you have a it's a self-defeating situation when they Nifty Fey were the rage
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