저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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골드만삭스 대선 시나리오 보고서를 인용해 트럼프 공화당 스윕(25%)이면 S&P500 +3%·10년물 금리 +20bp(트럼프플레이션) 우려, 민주당 스윕은 과소평가됐다고 언급. 시나리오별 섹터 반응(비트코인·유가·지역은행·인프라·재생에너지·AI반도체 등) 정리. 출연자 본인 의견 배제하고 타 기관 견해 전달을 명시.
다듬은 글
well holy smokes we just got a hold of the document that shows how Goldman Sachs sees this election playing out and quite frankly what it means for the stock market both for Democrats and Republicans sweep versus not sweep let's just get right into it election reaction function here we go Trump with Republican sweep they give a 25% chance of happening you are looking at if this happens a potential increase in the S&P 500 of 3% this would be a big rally we did have a trump rally after Trump won in 2016 uh they believe that consumer stocks could underperform due to the weight of those potential tariffs on you know Chinese companies and otherwise KL Harris calls this the consumer tax obviously this is something that Donald Trump argues is just a tax on Chinese companies and something beneficial towards American companies anyway uh there's a chance that if this happens with the Republican sweep you could actually see the 10-year treasury move up 20 basis points and this would be probably because of anticipations around what's called Trump flation which would just basically be tax cuts and tariffs so on both ends of the candle Wall Street folks like Robo bank or Goldman or others they think that could be inflationary now Donald Trump says that won't be inflationary but what Wall Street argues is that if you cut taxes people have more to spend you could create more demand and therefore more inflation and at the same time is cutting taxes if you're putting tariffs on you're increasing in price for things so you're making prices more expensive and you're giving people more opportunity to spend more uh so even though you might not have this huge net net benefit there price is up so inflation up and therefore potentially yields higher second wave of inflation fears yada y y the economists had a big piece this morning where they're basically like and The Economist hates Donald Trump okay so let's just be really clear about that uh and I'm just mentioning it because it it's related to this but the economist thinks that uh Donald Trump in 2016 had a lot of people in his administration that sort of restrained him from doing trumpan things and uh The Economist thinks over the past really eight years Donald Trump has pretty much fired everybody who's not like a full-on disciple of Donald Trump and like go Maga and so that in this next election if Donald Trump wins he could be sort of the immune thanks to Supreme Court president who's able to do everything he wants with his circle around him already built out to do exactly what he wants to do and this is why they think tariffs could get through even if there's no sweep uh if see via Trump divided government you still get potentially uh well you get a lower 10-year yield you don't get the spike in the 10year but you potentially still get tariffs and deregulation but you uh get a little bit less boost in the markets maybe only one and a half% 30% probability here because you don't get those tax benefits next probability is about a 40% chance which is really interesting because if you add the uh Trump sweep versus Trump divided government Goldman puts it at 55% 40% chance they actually think Harris wins with the divided government S&P 500 Falls but the dip ends up getting bought weaker dollar and overall lower yields and honestly I think like I I'm a big believer that the most ironic thing is what happens everybody's saying there's like no chance of a democratic sweep and I'm like oh my gosh what like what if like markets are totally mispriced for this like I'm not imparting my opinion on what happens or not it doesn't matter to me I just want to report to you what others are saying but I I think a democratic sweep is woefully underpriced right now and uh it's really going to rely on frankly quiet Women Voters to come out in droves more so than normally to skew all the polling in predicted markets because nobody thinks it's possible to get a Dem sweep but remember this is the roie weade election cycle so for men well most men don't care about that but most women do so that's going to be an interesting one all right a democratic sweep opens up the possibility that corporate taxes could be raised this would just be dumb I think if they do sweep I really hope they don't do that uh but they do see this as risk negative uh and oil would be a loser as well uh now before before we get to those times I want you to see this chart right here look at this Bitcoin under Harris down 3% Trump up 7% from an oil point of view we think that uh there's a shot of oil being - 3.4% under Harris and up substantially under Trump so we'll see uh we'll see how that ends up going that would be right here you see Regional Banks up under Trump down under Harris infrastructure up under Harris you can kind of take a screenshot of this if you want I won't go through all of it Renewables up 6.8% under Harris that'd be like an end phase right there Nas actually did well today it's at 87 bucks still pretty low though went all the way down to 76 bucks there on earnings that's crazy uh not good they're definitely losing market share to like Teslas and others but anyway under Trump minus 45% so big move expected there expecting small caps to move more under Donald Trump uh and uh the NASDAQ actually to move better under Harris if you look at AI oh uh this was interesting too expensive software they may as well just write pounder here which had an excellent earnings report mind you but it it's still expensive is crazy it's like a 4 and a half to 5 and a half Peg depending on who Wall Street or whose uh EPS estimates you use uh I my own estimates put it at like four and a half Wall Street puts it out like a 5.9 Peg it's crazy so I'm actually more bullish on their growth but anyway uh expensive software Trump Victory up down under Harris which is interesting because I feel like paler should do well under expanded potentially military conquest but anyway artificial intelligence semiconductors up more under Harris this makes sense think chips act uh real estate I was surprised by this real estate actually negative in both cases but more negative under Trump uh these would be like you know real estate stocks probably like home builders they just don't getting love uh and then discretionary down .9% uh along with staples down 1.3% under Trump uh Staples more flat with discretionary up under Harris because you get rid of that tariff potential and then these are some really interesting polls you want to pay attention to I'll be covering these live uh and so you'll see the first polls are going to start closing with Georgia around 400 p.m.
California time and 700 p.m. Eastern so I'll be live covering this this is the big one right here Pennsylvania this will swing everything if Democrats swing this which they're not expected to right now uh it be a real big election Game Changer so that's going to be 5:00 p.m. California time I will obviously be live for that that'll be that's going to be a huge moment so uh anyway there you go Goldman Sachs predictions you want to expand your diversification make sure you are signed up for personalized Financial advice with stock hack.com go to stack.com to learn more about how we as licensed financial advisers can give you advice and every advice that goes through the door and out the door comes from me that is my team provides me everything they're talking to you about and then we work together to figure out all right what do we think could work well in your situation and that's the advice that you get so it's all going through me if you want to learn more about that go to stock hack.com and as usual if you want to invest in house hack it is still private now but boy I want to bring that sucker public one day but anyway if you want to learn more about that no guarantees we can go public or when but if you want to learn more about investing in it while it's a private company and still a little baby make sure to go to house.com we've got a really cool convertible Bond offering that offers you 5% on a convert verble is crazy those are usually like a quar of a per to 1 and a half% on a convertible cuz you get the upside in the stock uh and uh you get upside in the stock with some other benefits so go learn about that over at house act.
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