저자: Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
트럼프 당선 시 규제 완화로 테슬라의 자율주행 사업 확장이 빨라질 수 있으나, 전기차 세액공제(7,500달러)와 탄소배출권(ZEV) 수익 등 단기 실적 타격 위험이 크다. 해리스 당선 시 세액공제는 유지되지만 자율주행 밸류에이션 프리미엄이 훼손될 수 있다. 어느 쪽이든 단기적 압박이 예상되나 장기적으로는 회사를 역행하지 않겠다는 입장. 에너지 저장장치 세액공제도 메가팩 수요에 중요한 역할을 한다고 설명.
다듬은 글
hey everyone me Kevin here I think they're going to be buying opportunities for Tesla stock no matter who wins Donald Trump or kamla Harris now you might think that's crazy but let's first start with why Donald Trump could potentially hurt Tesla stock and the longer term potential benefits we'll start with the benefits Donald Trump is likely just like he did during his last Administration to seek to reduce regulation and actually reduce regulation right he'll actually do it this is one of the reasons that in my opinion you're seeing innovators like Elon Musk wanting to push for a Donald Trump it doesn't have to do with tax credits elon's already made it clear he doesn't think the tax credits matter and that Tesla will make it despite the tax credits I agree with that they'll survive although there's a lot of profit that'll be left on the table without him but Elon as we know has made the bet on an auton future for Tesla and a future that gets us to Mars via SpaceX now that's really a different topic but I think that Donald Trump is a symbol for Elon Musk of freedom from regulation freedom from potentially the FAA the FTC you know uh anti anti- monopolistic Behavior we've seen it with uh you know Mrs Khan all the anti- Monopoly talk and uh uh Partnerships that have just been uh crushed under uh her Administration look at for example Nvidia wanted to buy arm you know which is now public and has done extremely well after going public uh but anyway I think Elon sees that freedom as an opportunity to get us into an autonomous future faster now that might come with risks people on one side of the aisle say that hey regulation is there for a reason to minimize the potential death or you know injury that could come from training autonomous vehicles that are fully autonomous without a driver whereas others say hey more people die from driving cars regularly over 40,000 a year so even if some die training in autonomous vehicles it would be significantly safer in the long term than people driving cars actually agree with that and so I think because Elon Musk has told us he's betting the future on autonomy Donald Trump is really that path towards an autonomous future on Nationwide scale while you might get autonomy for Tesla's uh Robo taxi vehicles in certain areas kind of like how weo operates in Santa Monica and Phoenix Arizona and some other locations like San Francisco you might see some of that with Tesla's robotaxis as well whether it's Palo Alto or Austin Texas or otherwise I think Elon sees the path towards true scale as one where you have wide opportunities to deploy Robo taxis Nation wide and that's why he really is gunning for an frankly like a trump win here now even if you do have a trump win you're going to have some risks first you're going to have the risks of actually getting autonomy to the level where you can truly scale autonomy as quickly as Elon thinks and I think as usual his estimates are a little optimistic I do think the future is fully autonomous and heavily based on electric vehicles I'm a big fan long term but I do think some of the more recent expectations that full autonomy could be here and present where we could own our own Robo taxes as part of a robo taxi Fleet by like the end of 2026 2027 is a little optimistic potentially too optimistic especially since and this is the downside of a trump Administration you're going to lose a lot of electric vehicle tax credits and Battery manufacturing tax credits that a lot of people just are not paying attention to first of all they take Elon for his word that hey you know tax credits are going to hurt other EV manufacturers in America more than they will hurt Tesla and Tesla Will Survive well let's break this down first of all yes I agree that Tesla will survive I I'm not concerned about that Tesla Will Survive even if there are no tax credits there's no doubt about that but this idea that Tesla is actually really competing with other electric vehicle manufacturers in America I think is nonsensical we know Ford is basically losing money because of their electric vehicle business Ford and GM shrinking their EV businesses really the companies that are crushing it in electric vehicles are in China look at byd with their hybrid and fully battery electric vehicle models uh and China is coming to the Americas for now they're coming to South America they're you know building up shop basically in Mexico and uh Brazil and eventually I think it's likely just like what happened with the Japanese Auto industry in the80s coming into America where people are like what cheap and quality what this is unbelievable I think the same thing will happen with China you people have this impression well it's an old school impression now but 10 years ago everybody's like oh it's from China it's cheap and crap today it's like oh it's from China it's like okay well they're pretty good at manufacturing like they've gotten really good uh I mean look at you know the iPhones that manufacturing try just as a quick example uh and they're trying to do that you know Apple's trying to do this in India but they're having quality issues so anyway uh they'll get there uh but what's interesting is you know Chinese manufacturers at some point the protectionism will will fade and people will demand those higher quality cheaper Chinese vehicles and eventually we'll probably all be driving Chinese vehicles unless Tesla can really really stay ahead of them which is possible they might uh one of the ways they might is under a trump Administration you get more protectionism you're going to get more tough on China more tariffs and I think that's truly what Elon sees is he sees the autonomous future under Trump uh thanks to deregulation but also protectionism against China he sees them as the true evil and and that's your real problem uh so now you have to consider for a moment okay well if that's what Elon is concerned with then let's think for a moment what does Harris do well Harris you probably have less of that protectionism which means the China China EV industry continue to can continue to expand in South America come closer to our border and eventually to the United States which honestly is going to be a good thing for consumers so you have lower cost Vehicles even Chinese made tesas uh but then the issue that you have with Trump is you are going to end up in a situation where oopsy dupsies I lose a lot of tax credits now see the autonomous future and unregulated potentially or less regulated autonomous future is still a future it is not a present reality and much like Warren Buffett says in Securities analysis we should analyze companies based on what they are doing today not what they are doing in the future uh and that's something that right now there's a lot of hopium for the future Optimus going to Mars autonomous but what we have today are massive tax credits that are extremely beneficial to Tesla today now initially people only think about the tax credits uh for well frankly the $7,500 on vehicles and again people think hey you know Elon says that's not really going to affect Tesla it's going to it's not just the $7,500 though there are other tax credits let's analyze all of them together so first you've got $7,500 for the tax credit for actually buying a car this makes it easier to buy an electric vehicle because the consumer well obviously is getting $7,500 off now at the point of purchase rather than on their tax return a year later or incorporated into their lease payment that's a really big deal that's a great benefit this enables Tesla with really the the opportunity to raise their prices or not drop prices as much because we know Tesla prices have been plummeting they would be plummeting more without these tax credits I'm highly convinced of that but it's not just the $7,500 for the consumer it's actually also the regulatory credits the the the zero uh the Zev credits the zero emission vehicle credits that they get for manufacturing cars Tesla generated about $1600 per vehicle sold in Q3 in Zev credits that's over five times as much as they did last year look here's a Baron's article talking about it Tesla generated 739 million in credit sales in the third quarter that's beyond the $7,500 for the actual vehicle that's about $1,600 per vehicle up from $300 up over $5 X from last year so now all of a sudden it becomes more expensive for the consumer to buy a Tesla if Donald Trump removes these tax credits day one as he says he will Elon says don't worry we'll be fine we'll be able to take more market share you already have the American market share I mean short of like vinfast or rivan or you know some of the smaller volume companies you already have the EV Market a lot of it and Teslas are great don't get me wrong I love my Model S yeah but it's not just 7500 it's the 1,600 and then on top of that what do you potentially lose and this is why potentially a haris Administration could actually you know have some benefits as well you have to remember also the energy storage incentives which this is disclosed in their 10K but look at this Standalone energy storage technology is eligible for a tax credit of between 6 to 50% of qualified expenditures regardless of the source of energy which may be claimed uh by our customers or uh by us with Arrangements where we own the systems and basically lease them to the clients so now you have to think to yourself okay well what's the tax credit for these batteries well it's about $30 $32 per megawatt or sorry per kilowatt okay why does that matter well that matters because a mega pack has like 3900 kilow time $32 that's $124,800 for each mega pack if a mega Pack's going for millon million bucks that's like an extra 12% that a customer is able to pay because of these tax credits or Tesla is able to collect so one of the reasons you're getting this explosion in battery sales where Tesla is actually eating market share from nphase who also sells batteries is because of the tax credits the cons you know a homeowner can deduct like 30% uh of their battery purchase you spend 5,000 bucks on a battery you're getting 1,500 bucks as a tax credit and now you're saving money monthly uh by by reallocating when when you're actually using your energy like tax credits are really incentivizing the green industry now that's not to say that that's not inflationary it is right the inflation reduction Act is inflationary up front but long term as these manufacturing facilities are built out over long term and these credits fade over the long term you know by 2032 a lot of these phase out and then you end up with uh you know uh more manufacturing for Mega packs and home batteries and otherwise all of a sudden you actually reduce the cost of batteries that's the whole point of the inflation reduction act long term but in the short term you create inflation with it it's just the way it is because you got to build the manufacturing build the infrastructure out which is inflationary so this actually gives you some really serious benefits for Tesla under a Harris Administration for continuing to sell batteries and existing cars so this is kind of where you have to look at Tesla on two sides are you making a bet on Tesla for the easiest path to an auton future then you probably want Trump if you're looking at Tesla as the easiest path to sell as many cars as possible and as many batteries as possible with the greatest profit margins you're probably leaning towards a Harris but that a Harris Administration restricts your potential autonomous valuation which is certainly a premium that's sitting on Tesla right now selling for over a three peg let me update the valuation on Tesla right now really quickly whereas with Trump you're going to lose all these tax credits which is a near-term hit you really hurt Tesla in the near term it's going to suck to lose those tax credits if they actually get removed the way Donald Trump says he will now it's possible that you end up getting you know Trump winning and then Elon convinces him not to kill the credits that's possible right uh but uh let's see here but it's the opposite of what Trump has said Tesla right now is selling for let's see $241 EPS expected that's $100 and we're probably looking at about a growth rate of 28% yeah 100.4 divided by 28 you're you're at a peg of 3.5 which is very very high even for a software company it's high so valuation rich and so you potentially in the short term under Harris at least maintain your credit credits but you hurt that autonomous future which could hurt the valuation and under Trump you lose the credits which hurts you in the near term which also hurts the valuation because now you're EPS goes down so I think in both cases no matter who wins you actually have some short-term pain for Tesla in the long term though I wouldn't bet against this company that's my take thank you so much for watching I wish you all the best out there good luck and also if you want to diversify go check out house.com you get a convertible Bond offering that's open right now which means you get 100% of The Upside in the stock when we go public knock on wood sooner rather than later no guarantees though uh obviously can't it it does the fat lady doesn't sing until the fat lady has sung as they like to say uh and uh and you get paid 5% uh in the meantime on those convertible bonds so check them out over at house.com for credit investors read the solicitation and PPM over there thanks for watching see you
Comments 0