저자: Kevin · 외국인
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NIO와 테슬라의 중국 EV 경쟁을 다룸. 배터리 교환(스왑) 서비스와 저가 LFP 배터리 도입이 NIO의 경쟁력으로 제시됨. 발표자는 NIO 약 5%, 테슬라 약 55% 보유 중이라고 밝힘. 영상 말미에 강좌 쿠폰 할인 마감 홍보가 포함됨. 2021년 1월 영상으로 예측 발언 시점이 과거임.
다듬은 글
quick reminder the course coupon code expires in two days the prices will go up check out that coupon code check out the bundles and just this morning i spent over probably uh eight hundred thousand dollars buying stocks for private course members showing you exactly my moves alive as i was making them i'd love to see you in the daily live streams hey everyone meet kevin here this morning i loaded up on 1 600 shares of neo and i bought a 20 call options january 2023 call options at a 65 strike so for neo i am i'm getting pretty committed here this is now growing in my portfolio but folks neo's doing something here to stay competitive and it's pretty ingenious and it's a shift uh let's talk about what happened here what this means for tesla and uh well let's just get into it so let me catch you up first a little bit so neo and tesla are head-to-head obviously here we know this they're they're going on an all-out war against each other even though we know that neo says in their earnings call no we don't see tesla as competition we see tesla as competition against ice vehicles internal combustion engine vehicles and basically the more people buy evs hey you know what that's more market share for us in the future now maybe that's just the diplomatic way of saying no you know more power to you tesla but you know neo is doing absolutely everything in their power to stay at pace and try to exceed with tesla or exceed tesla now tesla just introduced the model y for pre-orders in china which competes almost directly with neo's three primary vehicles however neo in three days on neo day is expected to announce the et7 which competes directly with tesla's made in china model 3.
now don't get me wrong tesla still sells two and a half times the cars that neo does on a monthly basis and tesla's production facilities are at a way faster ramp rate at giga shanghai than what neo could expect to be at now with jac which is their manufacturing partner that they have a five year contract with but neo's fan base is growing and now we've got these manufacturers competing against each other head to head here in in both vehicle spaces tesla's got the model three neo's gonna have the et7 tesla's got the model y neo's got three suv lines and crossovers or vehicles but neo's fan base here it's blowing up for a couple reasons and i want to talk about those two reasons uh very briefly and i want to introduce this wall street journal video which you have not seen it yet you gotta see it after i show you this i gotta tell you the change that neo is making here to stay up you know up to speed with tesla here but let's jump into this because i'm going to add commentary on this this was a really good video by the wall street journal tesla verse neo battle for the world's largest ev market i'm just excited off that title let's watch it out of juice only 42 kilometers range left and that's why we need to come here that's the swap stage when jeff shaw needs to get his car refueled he doesn't go to a gas station and not always one that charges electric vehicles instead he goes to a battery swap station in about five minutes he can have his ev battery replaced with a fully charged one that has a driving range of up to 260 miles more than enough for the 42 year old's daily commute to work it's so brilliant it's just so brilliant and it's and they're going to talk about elon musk and how he you turned away from this saying americans don't want it i don't know you know i hate the idea of of uh what if my battery bricks one day in the future you know i i don't know and i own the original tesla roadster i'm worried about that thing right now it's sitting outside and i have a charger in five days and i'm like if that battery breaks that's 30 grand out of my pocket you don't have that way faster than the the gas station experience i think let's go wow shaw is driving a neo a rising star in china's electric vehicle market once on the brink of bankruptcy the startup was bailed out by the government and has since seen its shares soar at the end of 2020 neo is worth more than general motors ranking as the world's fifth most valuable automaker and that has a lot to do with its batteries in other words customer doesn't need to buy the vehicle with the battery and so far it's the only automaker in china to do this it's honestly brilliant the fact that you can lower the price of the car without actually removing amenities from the car think about that you buying the battery on a lease separately from the vehicle doesn't mean you're not getting navigation you're not taking out the sunroof i don't know if there's sunroofs in this i'm just saying you're not taking out options right you're still getting the same car you're just getting it for cheaper and then you lease the battery but then that gives you all this optionality of okay well i got the 75 kilowatt hour and i'm gonna go to the 150 kilowatt hour battery hey if in the future they come out with a bigger battery pack boom i'll take that one it's incredible many investors say neo's commercial strategy is revolutionary so as tesla speeds ahead as the market leader in china should it be worried and there's there's the battery pack getting swapped out neo isn't the first electric vehicle company to try switching out the battery you have the char the choice of a battery pack swap which is faster than you can fill a gas tank in 2013 tesla demoed its battery swap technology and the following year built a trial swap station in california tesla man i remember seeing this and thinking it was so brilliant back when he did it uh it kind of sad that they they killed this but and they only had you know one trial location so i don't know if this is elon being stubborn here but people in china seem to love the swapping dropped the project saying drivers weren't interested in swapping their batteries because the supercharging stations were fast enough i'll tell you and sorry i keep interrupting here but as a model x owner when and i had the model x before the model 3 existed right when i went to the battery charging stations oh my gosh it was like paradise there was nobody there it was just the model s's and x which they're like 80 to 100 grand so there's a barrier to entry there and i'm not trying to be like i don't know elitist here pat on the back tesla no no no i'm just making the point here it was nice going to the charging stations now you go to a charging station in la you sit in line for 45 minutes before you can freaking plug in it's horrible it's horrible horrible even as these charges can take more than 75 minutes to fully power a car we'll be expanding the supercharged network quite substantially over time despite tesla pulling the plug on battery swaps its chinese rival neo is moving ahead with the technology so then this dude talks about how he thinks battery swapping will make neo competitive against tesla i can link the whole video down below you could watch it but let's just keep going for a flat fee of about a hundred fifty dollars a month neo drivers can get six battery replacements at more than 160 battery swap stations across china when you drive or these are gasoline vehicles their service come to the end or when i'm gonna pause it really quick so they did there is a limit on how much you can swap so keep that in mind but quite frankly i mean how many swaps do you need a month right i guess it depends on on uh you know like to me it seems like something you would use when you're traveling like if i'm going from where i live to la it'd be very useful to just be able to swap especially since i always get stuck in la trying to charge or the dealer delivery card to you but for neo it's very different experience neo drivers also have other battery options like charging at home or using an app to request a charging track to show up that's insane they literally have a mobile truck that if you run out of battery they will come with a mobile battery truck they'll charge you up like they'll juice you up for 15 minutes so you get enough battery to get left to a charging station i actually had my model x die once at my house my battery or my charging station failed uh it said like charging not available or some crap like that anyway uh the car had 40 miles left on it at night i park it in the garage the next morning i got to go to an appointment and i'm like no problem i'll take the car i'll drive it to the charging station and i'll charge it up turn the car on the thing has one mile of range left on it i'm like what they had to tow me but services and stations in china fall far short of what's needed to convince the world's largest evm market to uptake battery swap vehicles just compare the number of nios battery swap stations to tesla's supercharging stations in the country and the more than 2 000 stations it has worldwide and this is where the government comes into play badly small for now is getting more attention right looking into the policy support behind it xiugong is an auto consultant based in shanghai he says in the long run government policy will likely determine how the ev industry in china develops beijing already has a 2035 goal for broad eevee adoption in the country basically i'm gonna stop the video here i encourage you to watch the rest of this video but they pretty much just talk about how china's like all in and even elon musk is like i want to thank shanghai for all their support and the chinese government basically they're they're all in and they're super supportive okay so now what did what did neo just change because neo just made a change oh and quickly i want to finish my thought because i started by saying there are two reasons people are loving neo so much battery swapping big one right uh number two the second reason they're getting so much traction is the high referral rate amongst customers even deutsche bank is like wow the referral rate is going up even though they're delivering more cars uh and that's really good that customer to customer referral rate anyway these two things combined are are definitely going to create some issues for tesla this is why i wouldn't be surprised if tesla considers bringing some of that battery swapping back although it's going to be interesting because tesla's going to the structural battery so i don't know if they're going to be capable of doing a battery swap technology it certainly would potentially change some of the engineering implications so i know elon is very focused on bringing margin down uh cost margin so that profit margins go up expense margin goes down and uh i don't think if he's going to go with a structural battery direction to keep margins uh high basically profit margin's high expense margin's low i don't think he's going to end up trying to reinvent this wheel and then go from structural battery to okay maybe 50 is structural but 50 can be swapped out uh you know piece it i don't know i think that then then we get way too complicated and that's just gonna uh cause too many issues so this might literally be an example here where if you want battery swapping your only option ends up being neo for everyone else the battery technology could get to a point with tesla and this is probably the direction tesla's going to go the battery technology could get to a point where it's like well you don't need to swap because you've got these new high quality batteries where it's an issue now we don't have these new batteries yet but these new high quality batteries maybe you get six mile 600 mile range and you actually get 600 miles unlike now when you charge up to 240 miles and you get like 180 uh or i mean but even even if you had a 600 as a threshold and you got 500 it's still amazing you probably wouldn't need to swab so that might be where elon's head is hey like yeah swapping great idea but we're going structural battery to have our profit margins be strong in the long run and our battery technology is going to be so great in the future we won't need to swap maybe maybe but for this transition period neo's gonna get a lot of customers with that swap technology i think it's really smart so it's good for neo uh and maybe it's a good thing that tesla doesn't get into that uh now to be clear before i talk about this change three to four percent probably i'm trying to get this up to five percent of my portfolio in my stock portfolio is in neo and neo options uh 55 percent of my portfolio is in tesla so let me just be like ultra clear with my biases here okay i am a tesla bull but i can't just put my head in the sand and say that neo isn't succeeding where tesla's not able to uh convert those customers some of that could potentially be because of a quality as well right uh some some people you hear this kind it's becoming more regular that people are going from having owned a tesla in china to potentially going over to a neo and falling in love because the the quality controls a little bit better some people say a lot better we'll see but uh in the news to stay a lot more competitive with tesla neo is now following tesla's lead into using catl's lithium-ion iron phosphate batteries iron is the key word here so just to clarify this catl is just a big battery production facility in china it's the largest one that exists in china it's huge it also makes batteries for mercedes bmw hyundai and tesla tesla's model 3 and i'm pretty sure they're model y is using this as well actually i'm almost certain they're model-wise using this as well they use these lithium iron phosphate batteries and these are deemed to be cheaper than what we use here in the american-made teslas now the iron phosphate batteries they had a bad reputation they weren't as stable they weren't as safe they didn't have the best reputation in the past but they've gotten safer and more stable the technology has gotten better so you're able to have a better cheap battery basically so we're trying to figure out how can you make something that's cheap still have quality so that it's good good enough right and that's these lithium iron phosphate batteries again iron being that keyboard here uh and there's a rumor out that tesla's margin on the tesla made in china model y could be as high as 30 30 profit margin on the model y their current uh profit margin on the american made vehicles uh merged with the chinese production is like 26 percent 25 26 with margin or i'm sorry with vehicle credits like the energy credits without energy credits you fall to like 23 margin uh and it's partially this 30 potential margin it's a rumor right now but if that's true it's going to probably be in part due to these lithium iron phosphate batteries they're just cheaper to manufacture and so the news is that neo has now announced that they are going to follow tesla's lead here and they are going to release models of the neo with the less expensive battery so that way if customers want to buy the car with the battery they have the option of getting a less expensive car with a less expensive battery so it it reduces barriers to entry again for customers to come in and probably at the same time neo's going to share on some additional profit margin in that now neo does have about a 40 take rate on the battery swapping service so forty percent of neo's customers aren't going to care if it's the cheaper battery or the more expensive battery but you can bet in the battery swapping they'll probably just use the cheaper batteries and that's going to make the battery swapping setup actually more affordable for neo long run why wouldn't they why wouldn't they use the cheaper ones usually that's my expectation that they'll be able to milk more margin out of the bass baas battery as a service systems because of this this new decision to to also use these batteries that tesla is using now catl uses a lot of different batteries they're also trying to innovate uh so that way they can compete with tesla's new batteries so you've got some serious competition brewing in china and that's exactly why i want to get my neo exposure you know i don't know that i'm going to go much higher than 5ish percent as a total portfolio on neo because you do still have risk factors it's still it's still a foreign company and i don't want to have the or come across as always having a home bias which means you just invest in the united states but we don't know what regulatory implications there could be uh with a biden and democratic sweep here though probably less of a concern so we'll see we shall see if you found this video helpful consider subscribing to the video make sure to check out the courses down below so you can join me on the private live streams uh and use that coupon code you could also use the coupon code on the bundles that are listed on page down below the prices will go up after the eighth
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