저자: 미상 · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 2022년 3분기 13F 공시 포트폴리오는 전반적으로 보수적이고 약세적인 구조로 해석된다. 버리는 GEO 비중을 300% 이상 늘렸고, CoreCivic도 재매수한 것으로 언급된다. 두 종목은 정치 이벤트(공화당 집권 가능성)에 따라 급등락하는 패턴을 보였으며, GEO는 약 8달러, CoreCivic은 약 11달러 수준에서 여전히 청산가치 대비 저평가되어 있다는 진행자의 평가다. 진행자는 버리가 과거 패턴상 급등 시 이익실현을 했을 가능성이 높다고 보지만, 13F로는 확인할 수 없다고 명시한다. QRT(Quartzia 계열)는 버리가 52주 신저가 근처에서 매도하는 규칙을 가진 점을 들어, 현재 신저가 상태라면 그가 이미 매도했을 가능성이 높다고 경고한다. 따라서 버리를 맹목적으로 따라 사는 것은 위험하다는 취지다. 에어로젯 로켓다인(AJRD)은 수주잔고가 시가총액보다 크고 현금흐름이 예측 가능해 방어적 종목으로 분류된다. 진행자는 주가 약 42~49달러가 다소 비싸다고 보고, 40~42달러 복귀 시 소액 진입을 고려하겠다고 한다. 차터(Charter), 리버티(Liberty) 등 고부채 기업은 금리 인상기에 채권이 할인 거래되어 저가 자사주 매입이 가능하고, 인플레이션 시 부채 실질가치가 줄어 유리하다는 논리를 편다. 가격 전가력이 있는 담배회사 등도 같은 범주로 언급된다. 진행자는 버리가 숏 포지션이나 해외주식 보유 여부는 확인되지 않았다고 밝히며, 버리가 거시환경과 실적 불확실성을 우려해 실적 방어 가능한 종목에 포지셔닝한 것으로 본다. 아마존, 넷플릭스, 디즈니 등은 이 범주에 해당하지 않아 보수적으로 접근한 것으로 해석한다.
다듬은 글
so we finally got what we've been waiting for Michael burries 13f filing and this one is pretty interesting actually not just from the stocks he bought but the structure of the portfolio which is very very bearish in my opinion and is very conservative as I believe Buri is worried from you know potential stocks missing earnings because a lot of big companies like Amazon and many others they were reporting horrible earnings if not earnings at least in terms of guidance which I really was going to get worse every single quarter and I believe Michael bury agrees with this from the structure of his portfolio he kept the Geo and he added over 300 percent to the position and I was not surprised to see him back in core Civic which is his stocks that I own but I have to say from me watching and following Michael burry for years and years I pretty much know how he trades Geo he buys around six dollars or under and he sells above eight dollars and both Geo and core Civics they made a big move pretty much unjustified just because the Republicans were poised to for re-electional stuff and every single election whenever the Republicans are poised to win even if they don't win those stocks make massive moves and then they come back to earth okay and the stock ran to 9.50 and my stock corsovic was pretty close to 12 dollars per share I was up more than 25 on the on my cost basis and of course I did take some profits because it was just pretty much unjustified and again I believe Michael bury did the same and I know I'm gonna get some you know Geo Shale shareholders telling me is that no he didn't do it he's keeping it for the long term well I think we both know how Michael bury invests he's not really a very long-term oriented type of investors if he sees an irrational move which is something like Geo and core Civic I am sure he took some profits on no stocks and again we're not going to know that before the next 13 F but despite Geo being at eight dollars and core Civic being at 11 I believe both of those stocks are still extremely undervalued especially core Civic you know if you take the core Civics net asset value it's around 25 to 30 dollars per share I did many analysis on Geo going into the 10K and the properties they own and comparing them to how much they sold them which is two to three times book and it's the same thing with core Civic yes the business is declining but they have assets which if you deduct the debt in terms of core Civic it's worth more than their market cap which means they're trading below again liquidation value but these stocks can be left for the dead for years if we don't have a change in sentiment that could encourage investors to potentially invest again in Geo and core Civic and the only thing that's going to cause that is us having a republican Congress or a Republican president which is not going to say I'm going to end private prison even though he cannot end private to prisons and we both know that that but that scares the way a lot of hedge fund managers and institutions from investing in those stocks so I believe you know those stocks can keep going up and down and whenever we get to a republican you know controlled House and Senate and a Republican president potentially in 2024 there would be a massive change in sentiment in those stocks like something like core Civic it was trading at twenty dollars per share before Biden got elected and it went as low as eight dollars per share so I still own core Civic but I trimmed some of my position around the 25 percent gain and if it ever goes under 10 again I'm willing to buy the stock even more all right now this is another stock that Michael burry bought which is qrt a quartzia and again I want to warn investors that are you know trying to copy for example something like quartier all right the main reason I'm saying that is because Michael brewery as he said in his MSN article he sells whenever a stock hits a new 52 weeks low this is what Michael burry said I prefer to buy within 10 to 15 percent of the 52 weeks low and he said if a stock breaks to a new low in most cases I caught the loss that's just the Practical part I balance the fact that I'm fundamentally turning my back on potential greater value with the fact that since implementing this rule I haven't had a single Misfortune blow up my portfolio so if Michael worry bought you know qrta around you know 2.13 for example in July in the 13 F is or he sold on the big run when it went up or maybe he cut his loss because now it's trading at a new 52-week slow so I'm sure Michael burry is out of qrta maybe he's not maybe he doubled down but this is what he said so the odds of Michael Brewery selling at a new 52 weeks low is very very high which is why before I try to look for a Michael burry stock I always look does the stock make you know a huge 52-week slow because most likely Boris sold the position which is again why you should really be trying to copy Michael burry unless you take just his stocks as ideas and you do your own research and then maybe you decide to buy this specific company but you should not just copy him just because he bought it because it's a very unpredictable uh person and again we're going to find out if he actually sold Geo or some of Geo on the next 13 F all right now this is another interesting defense stock aerojet Rocketdyne and I was personally looking into the stocks they have a bigger backlog than their market cap and again if you notice between all those names they are pretty defensive they have high free cash flow some some like aerojet has a high backlogs and stuff so he's trying to protect himself from those companies or any companies potentially missing on earnings as such stocks normally as they have a big back their earnings are more predictable than something like Google or something like like Amazon or even Apple all right and this is a pretty interesting store when I looked at it and it was around 42 dollars per share I found it a little bit expensive and I must have made a mistake because Michael bury bought it at 39 and now it's sitting at 49 so again I think the stock is a little bit expensive and I'm not going to fomo into it if it ever gets back to 42 or 40 dollars per share then I will reevaluate and maybe open a small position and you have other stocks like Charter and Liberty and they have a lot of debt and that is actually not bad in terms of inflation and whenever the FED is hiking great because as Michael burry said in his Twitter whenever the FED hikes rates most of those bonds and the Deads that those companies owe they actually trade below par value for example the bond will not be trading at a hundred cents on the dollar it could be trading at 90 to 92 cents on the dollar which actually allows them to buy back their debt much cheaper than they had before the FED actually starts raising rates the second reason why debt is good in times of inflation because that is getting inflated away especially if you have companies that have surprising power to actually keep high-tech prices because they can keep hiking those prices but so that is staying the same especially if it's a fixed rate at a long period of time those are normally the best type of companies to own if they have a lot of Leverage many tobacco companies fit this category they have the pricing power to raise it for example eight to ten percent per year but again so that is still the same so that is inflating away and it allows them to buy so that's back cheaper just because the FED is Raising rate and there's some uncertainty around the environment so again we don't really know what Michael burry has in terms of shorts but again Geo is not 37 of his portfolio he has some International stocks which we don't know about yet I'm going maybe to do a video on them in future but as I saw and I believe Michael burry is worried from the macro environment and from uncertainty around earnings and he is trying to position himself in some type of stocks that could either beat earnings or hold their earnings no matter what and stocks like Amazon and many in Netflix and many others Disney and many other such names they don't really fit this category and I believe he's just being conservative he's not going aggressive in any of those names mainly because of other names missing on earnings all right so I hope you enjoyed this video if you did please press the like button and maybe consider subscribing so I hope to see you in another video
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