저자: KyleLivingston · 외국인
요약 보기
일본 증시 급락과 엔화 강세(금리 인상 후 캐리트레이드 청산)가 미국 시장 하락을 촉발했다고 진단. 버크셔의 애플 지분 절반 매도를 과대평가 신호로 해석. 엔비디아·테슬라 등 고성장주는 밸류 부담이 줄었다고 보지만 VOO 10% 조정 전까지는 대규모 매수를 보류하고 현금을 보유하며 분할 적립은 지속하겠다는 입장.
다듬은 글
today folks Japan is crashing and it's taking the US markets down with it we're going to break that down along with the most concerning indicator in this market environment and that is waren Buffett selling over 50% of his Apple position we have to talk about that along with the most bubish stocks in the market that are crashing miserably where are the bottoms when are these buying opportunities and what does it mean for my money and what I'm doing if that is a conversation you'd appreciate on your path to financial Independence to damn well retire early go subscribe and hit that like button while you're down there because the Japanese market right now is sliding aggressively I mean it has dropped 203% just basically within a week uh it has been a very rough um you know couple of days and it is all related to the interest rate cycle and what's happening there because their interest rates were virtually at zero for I think through most of this weird Market environment and they only recently just started raising the interest rates and the speculation is that a lot of people were taking you know the money out of Japan they were bringing it over to the US because they could get it for they could borrow it for hardly anything take it to the US put in high interest money market funds all that stuff that's been driving those funds up and you know make good money and then just bring it back to Japan but when they raised interest rates what happened is it spiked the Japanese dollar because when you raise rates it leads to higher demand all this stuff for currencies I don't know it's a lot of technical economic stuff but the fact is you raise interest rates the dollar goes up with it and that is absolutely giving people people margin calls right because now they're converting the currency at a worser value so not only you know is the Japanese Market down but then you have the dollar that's up 12% against the US dollar so now every dollar you bring back is actually lost 12% of its value so that's kind of the speculation here if I can make sense of it and it's also like you know leading into some speculation on US dollars because there must have been a lot of foreign currency uh in the United States uh because it's just recently fallen off a cliff so I mean just in the last 5 days right so there's there's something going on here where there's a lot of USD being sold and it's likely being sold out of Japan and a lot of global markets very very interesting stuff going on here so that's been the cause of concern and it has nothing to do with anything other than Black Swan oriented events this is what I told you this is like this is literally the definition of something that nobody predicted I didn't hear anybody talking about this you know me Kevin all these guys were talking about we're heading into a recession sell your stock nobody knows that this stuff is happening it just happens you just wake up one day here we are folks so you kind of got to the reality and we'll talk about what I'm doing but I want to talk about what these you know billionaire fund managers like Buffett are doing because this kind of broke my soul uh I always like to believe that Warren Buffett was a long-term investor says if he buy something he likes he's going to hold on to it forever and if anything buy more but we all know that it's not true anymore I mean you know birkshire has been in and out of stocks a lot recently since the pandemic and you know their Stock's not getting too hindered uh in this current market selloff it is down but I mean considering how much it's up and how well that it's done I mean year to date it's still outperforming the S&P 500 and I think a lot of this has to do with the mass amount of cash I think they're well sitting on over $200 billion in cash right now and they're going to be running into a brick wall I think soon uh because when they sell off these positions and they just put it in cash yet had the high interest rates are doing them well but when they start cutting those rates and they don't have anywhere to put that cash I just I you know I'm kind of perplexed unless they're just waiting for like an absolute Market Calamity to take advantage of $200 billion is a lot of cash man it's kind of crazy um so anyways yeah they liquidated half their apple position we got to remember they did sell a little bit more off um prior I think a quarter or two ago and usually that's always the trigger right they sell a little bit they sell more they keep selling more and you know Warren Buffett said that they you know they were selling Apple for tax reasons but clearly not clearly they're continuing to sell it because they think it's probably overvalued they probably like the position for the mo the fund like you know the fundamentals of the product and everything but for the company itself it's expensive so I can see why they're selling it I mean it makes perfect sense but they're selling a lot of things they sold some Bank of America they actually sold some Chevron increased ocidental uh chub limited they increased a little bit here I mean these are really small Buys in comparison I did notice they completely got rid of I believe uh they got rid of Paramount that one's gone uh did they get rid of anything else HP is now gone they completely sold out of that position just like really interesting moves in my opinion uh because again you'll take a look at Apple here and for this thing to be trading at a favorable value it it's going to have to drop drop a lot uh you know this is the problem right now in this market environment we need to get to a better place sooner rather than later or people are going to have to start stomaching the reality that these stocks are overvalued I mean we got AI we got new phone Cycles coming up a lot of things to be hyped about but that's not happening today and today we're trading at a 32 times multiple which you know for Apple to be trading at a 32 times again is at the upper range of its historical averages of being around a 15 to a 20 and we're talking got a time here where again when you take a look at revenue and profit revenue is not really growing if we take a look at eida you know iida growth has slowed down dramatically you know I'm just saying these are the the reality the indicators people are taking into consideration so let's talk about the most bubish stocks in the market and then we'll just talk about like my opinion what I want to buy you know what I want to do here because there's a lot of things that I'm noticing are coming into favor uh if we take a look The Q's are down a lot today vnq some of these real estate ETFs I've been buying are down not as much thank God same withd they've been kind of keeping the portfolio at Bay from taking major dips with the uh the S&P down or vo down 3% today but man when I scroll through and I see app or Tesla down 5% today back into the 100s nvidia's down 7% paler down 6% crypto still down pretty dramatically you know I got to ask myself here like what's the more favorable thing to be buying like is this something that's going to continue because if it is it's arguable that some of these growth stocks are going to be coming back into a more favorable position if you believe again we get on the other side of this kind of recessionary environment um but Nvidia right now I think is honestly getting into a more favorable place if it continues to grow at a excelled level um we've talked about this with their priced earnings they're actually trading at more of a historic Norm for the price to earnings with this 25% correction um like I said I I never had the guts to buy this I don't understand it well enough but again I always like taking a look at the Historical averages um and if we just take a look I'm telling you you know this is the time where if you're buying some of these hyper growth stocks and you believe in them you know when we get down to the 50s here actually we're trading at a lower price to earnings right now than we were during 2020 20121 um for NVIDIA so again we could say that's pretty favorable right now paler is kind of in its own realm um which I think this could be a savior to the market tonight when it posts earnings um if you believe in paler it is a very very expensive company uh even compared to the likes of Nvidia actually paler makes Nvidia look cheap for the most part so uh if this company can do blowout numbers tonight uh and re kind of uh invigorate some of the AI plays um this could help save the market and help start finding bottoms with it uh Tesla now people keep asking me am I going to buy Tesla if it dips back down into the 100s and for the most part maybe actually um you know we bought Tesla over 3 months in this period here rallied back very aggressively uh we sold it for a nice 40 50% profit uh and now we're getting back down to levels where I was actually still buying it to some extent I was buying in the 180s for the most part um honestly if Tesla's a very expensive company I told you I think the fair market value for this and this just my opinion it's not a prediction you know I don't know what the markets are going to do but I think it's more around 3 to 400 billion and I told you guys when I'm buying it in this 1 15 to 180 range I'm paying around half a trillion dollars for it and I'm presuming that it's going to drop and I'm comfortable if it drops you know up to 50% because I can buy more on the dip right so if we get back into that thesis and we see it come down enough yeah I'll I'll I'll pick up shares again um I'd have no problem doing that it's just a matter of being patient and seeing because at 200 I still think it's a bit valued here um but again if we get back into the 180s 150s yeah I could see this being a favorable stock for me personally but in the broader Market of things I had some cash and I was starting to transfer to my account and I said is there anything that like screams to me a buy right now like that we don't already hold you know meta Google there's some good companies right now if you want to buy some individual stocks but I mean vo hasn't corrected that much I mean for the most part we're down maybe 8% I think uh we're really not down as much um you know that I'd like to see so I'm honestly just not that excited about the sell off right now I I know a lot of people are flipping out if you're buying individual stocks you're getting the wrecked out of you right like that's the reality of it and I'm just not much of an individual stock picker I'm a whole thing like SCD I mean even some of my small cap stocks are still doing much better than the broader markets today um so it's like yeah I just I look at my portfolio I like this isn't enough for me to like just start pulling all this cash throwing in the market I need at least a 10% if we get over 10% correction of VO I'll pick some shares up if it hits that 10% Mark in the next couple days 100% I will definitely start you know contributing a little bit heavier to the the broader indices um but for the most part like I said I'm just sitting just waiting I got the cash we'll see if anything like really opens up my eyes and this gets like way too overdrawn um but for right now it's kind of a mixed bag of there are some stocks that are still highly valued in the market there are still some stocks that you know are trading at better values today but it's all correcting which is great so it's just opening up some further opportunities now keep cost averaging by all means like I'm not going to stop buying stocks um but yeah I'm just looking to see how far this window opens up but something tells me for how aggressive the sell-off is going to be it's not going to last as long maybe I could be wrong i' I've been listening to predictions from everybody me Kevin thinks that the selloff is going to last into the election cycle I don't know how related this is to the Yen if you know basically if this Market keeps selling off and they keep raising interest rates I don't know how long if this is just like a flash you know Crash from uh you know margin calls I don't really know um but I have a hard time believing that um you know the markets are very volatile so it's big swings down big swings up you know but I'll probably start picking some shares up sooner rather than later because I I just don't trust these sell offs they've always come back pretty aggressively but let me know what you think in that comment section below
Comments 0