저자: ChamathPalihapitiya · 외국인
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결론: 챠마스는 2022년 페이먼트 기업(비자·마스터카드·페이팔)을 숏하고 웹3 크립토 인프라에 베팅하라고 주장하지만, 진행자는 이를 근거 부족으로 반박한다. 챠마스의 주장: 2022년은 금융주(비자·마스터카드 등 결제·수수료 기업)를 숏하고, 수수료 기반 결제 인프라를 웹3 크립토 프로젝트가 대체한다는 스프레드 트레이드의 적기라는 주장. 근거 제시: 비자·마스터카드가 이미 최고 시총에 도달했다는 주장이며, 아마존 영국 신용카드 결제 중단을 촉매로 언급. 진행자 반박: 비자·마스터카드 차트는 연초 신고가 부근 재테스트 중이라 숏이 이미 손실 구간이라고 지적. 비자 현금 약 180억 달러, 2021년 잉여현금흐름 140억 달러 이상으로 해자가 강하다고 평가. 스트라이프: 기업가치 1,000억 달러 이상으로 역사상 최대 IPO가 될 수 있으며, 결제 업계 자체를 흔들 수 있는 변수로 언급. 비자·마스터카드 강점: 레버리지(은행 자본 기반 신용), 거래 보안(분쟁·환불 가능)이 크립토에 없다고 평가. 크립토 강점: 전 세계 약 30억 명 미접속·은행 미이용 인구에게 탈중앙 금융 인프라 제공 가능성, 발행 제한·자산 안정성. 크립토 리스크: 8,000종 이상 코인 중 대부분 0으로 갈 가능성, 복제 용이해 IP 확보 어려움, 이더리움 기술적 한계(PoS 전환 불확실), 실수 송금 시 복구 불가. 진행자 전망: 크립토가 음악·스포츠 티켓·영화 등 결제 전반을 바꿀 것이라 장기 낙관하나, 지금 투자하면 손실 가능성이 약 98%라고 경고. 비트코인은 보유 중이며 강세 견해이나 크립토 겨울 가능성도 인정. 챠마스 평가: 과거 스팩 투자로 큰돈을 벌었으나 과거 투자 성과는 잘 언급하지 않으며, 자극적 발언으로 화제성을 유지한다는 비판. 발언 요지 정리: 최종 결론은 비자·마스터카드 숏 및 웹3 인프라 장기 유망이나 단기 리스크 큼. 주의: 자막 기반이며 일부 수치·발언은 자동인식 오류 가능.
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so i think that this is the year you can put on what probably will be the most profitable spread trade of my lifetime which is to be short these companies and that anybody that basically lives off of this two or three percent tax and be long well thought out web three crypto projects that are rebuilding payments infrastructure in a completely decentralized way now that doesn't necessarily mean that what you say won't also happen both that stripe will have an incredible ipo and that a lot of these scammy crypto projects will go to zero however if you read the white papers of these crypto projects and you systematically put together a framework i think you can belong those and you can be short visa mastercard because i think this is their peak mark account complete and utter i am calling shamath out for stating that web 3 cryptos are going to be the future infrastructure of payment systems payment gateways and you should be shorting right now visa mastercard paypal i mean stripes coming to the market is potentially the largest ipo in history and he's stating that all of these companies have basically reached their max market caps and i just find it so funny to tell everyone to short one company but not list one web3 crypto in the bubbly market that is the crypto space to not even name one crypto that you are buying or bullish on just seems so absurd to me mentioning this over the holidays so what we're going to do is we're going to take a look at some of these stocks and i'm very biased here because i don't own any of them by the way but we're going to talk about the stocks and we're going to talk about what visa mastercard have that maybe you know crypto does and then we're going to talk about what crypto has that these companies don't so this is a conversation that interests you because it's extremely fascinating this new disruptive world consider hitting that like button help the channel out a little bit folks but let's first and foremost take a look at the charts themselves with uh let's talk about mastercard here guys which is by the way uh retesting all-time highs or could very potentially be re-testing all-time highs this very month right after the holidays when shemath said short them they've reached their max market cap so we're already losing that bet and it hasn't even been two days into the new year on the open market right take a look at visa here guys also coming back it looks like it's rallied really nicely off those lows paypal i absolutely hate i don't like paypal the fees are exuberant and i basically cut off almost 90 plus percent of my payments coming through paypal so i can see why you know paypal with their large fee structure and their international exchange fees which are nuts because they're like three four five percent that i i get why they're going down i think they're a great company don't get me wrong they just rubbed me the wrong way so i'm not the biggest fan here folks but let's talk about stripe as well i mean stripes gonna be coming to the market potentially this year as the largest market cap company to ever ipo it is expected to be over a hundred billion dollars in valuation now just extending into this really quick guys we're talking about conglomerates here i mean visa is sitting on 18 billion dollars in cash we're talking about free cash flow exceeding 14 billion dollars for 2021.
this company has such a moat in the first world western world societies that it doesn't seem like implausible that they can't upgrade the infrastructure considerably to start adopting crypto or blockchain technology and it's just kind of absurd to me to think that you know this year will be the year that i stopped using visa mastercard to you know buy my gas buy mcdonald's basically pay for all my monthly expenses etc etc we're gonna expand on that more because crypto is gonna be disrupting some of this and i think it's prevalent to talk about but one of the reasons and one of the goats or one of these kind of you know leading examples that he used that you know visa mastercard have reached max market cap and don't get me wrong i think they're going to lose a lot of market share over the next decade we're going to talk about why but he said that because amazon is stopping uh accepting visa cards in the uk that this is the catalyst that's going to lead to a larger expansion of amazon cutting them off because their fees are far too high and in europe their fees were way too exuberant but the funny thing was is they didn't exactly ban them they stopped you from using credit cards but you can still use prepaid visas debit cards so if you have a visa debit card that you use for your bank and you can still use it to buy stuff on amazon in the uk so it's not like it was just a 100 banned and i don't think that is going to be the goat or the the catalyst that's going to lead to an escapade of just people dropping visa or mastercard i just don't see it it's like stripe right like when are we going to start seeing the adoption of crypto into the back end of online services i use stripe for a lot of my shopify your squarespace stores they're just such conglomerates at this point guys it's just it seems weird to me that these things are just going to go belly up in the next year not belly up but a complete reduction or pullback because of loss of market share but we're going to talk more about that in a second the first thing i want to talk about that that these cards have that crypto doesn't that nobody really talks about is leverage i mean we keep talking about how crypto can disrupt real estate and real estate transactions and a lot of these things but the problem i have with it is they don't let you leverage there's no cryptocurrency out there today that you can just email somebody and say hey here's my job here's how much money i make this year how much of a loan will you give me no you can only loan crypto if you own it with that backed asset value like it just it seems weird to me that you can't just leverage you know a credit card like you can a crypto card visas are leveraged capital from the bank right now you can get things like shake pay cards i personally have this and a lot of people think that this is like the first crypto credit cards but they're not they are basically cash backed debit cards that's it if you own a shake pay account you have to have canadian dollars in there and you can spend them and get a really good interest rate from using the shake pay visa card this isn't a crypto credit card guys it's it's nothing of the likes and even if you come out with a crypto credit card it's not going to be backed by leverage because there's obviously a lot more risk and stuff that comes in that can't be operated through a decentralized network so that's one of the faulters that i find the next one is obviously security if you are moving around multi-million dollar transactions saying the real estate market or just in general most people like the comfort of knowing that when you're sending a wire transfer yeah it takes a few days yeah you're gonna pay some fees but if it screws up hey guess what i can make one phone call and that money's back in my bank account i've had my credit card stolen three or four times over the last 10 years guys when i was traveling one of my credit cards got stolen somebody purchased a plane ticket with it one phone call second later reverse transaction back in my account crypto unfortunately isn't for the stupid uh if you do not know what you're doing with crypto even though i think it's much more secure for people that know what they're doing you just send one transaction to the wrong number on a wallet and it's vaporized gone forever and that scares the at the average day person so unfortunately crypto needs to find more security this is why we keep saying or why i keep saying that the future isn't the disruption of banks and these big visa mastercard companies but rather the emergence of both because if you can bring on and again we're going to see the federal reserve the canadian treasury are going to start bringing on their own crypto based dollar you know blockchain technologies i that's an inevitability in my opinion as it also will probably get into closing houses the back end of how we deal with stocks i honestly think it's going to be one of the most disruptive technologies but i feel like it needs an emergence of some of these things um that crypto just doesn't offer right now and it can only be done through to traditional platforms so let's talk about what crypto has that these things just don't and the first and foremost guys is the fact and shema talks about this in that video if you go watch it he does go on about the fact that nearly 3 billion people or 30 percent of the world's population have never used the internet according to the united states and the vast majority of these people don't have access to traditional banks because these are largely third and second worlds and as the internet becomes more and more available the only thing that they're gonna have access to especially when you're talking about certain places in africa i mean venezuela is a great example here guys that those people would likely turn to the decentralized asset aspect of banking rather than use their traditional banking which is why a lot of people are highly bullish on the crypto market because basically they the crypto is going to be building up the infrastructure of the rest of the world in my opinion i think that is a high likelihood of happening and the other thing that crypto really does well guys is that idea of decentralization the fact that you can pick cryptos that aren't uh basically going to be inflated to nothing the fact that uh crypto can't be taken from you there's a lot of other things that come with the stability i think making it its own asset class i mean kevin o'leary said it is the next asset class that people didn't think could exist it's a very interesting and intriguing place and again i think it's going to disrupt a huge percentage of traditional finance however the problem right now guys is because it's like the early days of the internet it's a bubble i've said this time and time again guys there's over 8 000 cryptos that currently exist most of them 90 of them are going to go to dead zero this is why i don't think shamath has the balls to actually name the cryptos he's buying because you have to diversify them it doesn't matter how good the project is the fact of the matter is is people can copy and paste crypto code there is no ip it is very hard to have an ip on a crypto when it's supposed to be decentralized so even if somebody comes up with a good project there's nothing saying visa mastercard can't just rip them off and you know adopt it into their own system there's so much stuff going on at play here that makes that risk reward scenario so absurdly high it's no surprise that we're hearing kids in their basement making millions of dollars off nfts and rando crypto projects that you've never heard of before right this is why i also think you're seeing people these large kind of fun investors the elon musks of the world seeing the potential here but really only putting money where the security is at the highest percentage or the path of least resistance to wealth as i call it which primarily is bitcoin and ethereum but i don't even think ethereum is all that great it's very clunky anybody that does coding which i don't i try and listen to experts in every field and every expert that deals with coding talks about how shitty ethereum network really is why they're trying to evolve it the fact that they're moving to proof of stake rather than you using you know right now the hardware mining of it with the nodes which again doesn't even nobody even knows if that's actually going to truly happen or if it happens successfully a lot of risk in this space so i'm going to make a bold prediction right now that crypto is going to be probably the largest utility shift in in the financial world across many spectrums it's going to hit music it's going to hit the transaction of baseball games the way you buy those tickets movies all of that jazz it's coming baby it's just not here yet so if you're you're jumping into this space be aware that the likelihood of you losing money is about 98 in my humble opinion i i mean i'm i own a lot of bitcoin i'm very bullish on bitcoin but i do accept the reality that if we go into a crypto winner it's probably going to be very bad which we've seen in those charts all those charts in the past right so just be aware of what's going on here guys just just keep an open mind to take these things that these these billionaires take with a grain of salt because i mean if you go look at how shemoth made most of his money it was through spax in the best year that you could make money off specs which by the way very weird industry because those managers that set that up made like 20 commissions and i think you brought what virgin galactic public a few other companies which go look at how those investments are doing i you never hear him talk about his past investment it's more or less just kind of these bold blunt statements that i just think are are far stretching and polarizing just to keep himself relevant these days i mean it's the same guy that said oh you should buy tesla stock and then you know not even six months later said oh i sold all of my tesla stock or whatever and just he just you know polarizing discussion guy i mean i should be more like him and just say polarizing just to keep conversations going and you know remain in the limelight i wish he was more like an elon musk very methodical about his statements rather than just sitting on a podcast rambling but that's what he likes to do that's what i like to do so i i can't say i'm any better but just a fun you know combative conversation today so stay cool stay awesome and i look forward to catching you tomorrow
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