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결론: 영상은 빌 애크먼 Pershing Square 포트폴리오를 분석하며 대부분 과거 성과 설명이 중심이고, 명시적인 향후 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측은 없음. [애크먼 경력·분쟁] 2007~2008 금융위기 때 MBIA 회사채 CDS 매수 후 매도해 큰 수익을 냈다고 언급. 2003년 칼 아이칸과의 Hollywood Realty 거래 분쟁에서 승소해 이자 포함 약 450만 달러를 받아냈다고 설명. [포트폴리오 개요] 약 39억 달러 규모의 Pershing Square 펀드를 다루며, 최근 United Technologies 지분 정리 등 포지션 축소가 있었다고 소개. [롱 포지션] ADP는 5년간 약 98% 상승, 배당수익률 2.16%로 우수한 보유 종목으로 평가. Lowe's는 주택시장 호황 속 좋은 수익률. 스타벅스는 배당 투자자 선호 종목으로 꾸준한 성장 언급. Chipotle는 식품 안전 사고 후 저점(약 250~255달러)에서 매수했다면 약 200% 이상 수익이 가능했다고 설명. [숏 포지션] Herbalife 숏은 칼 아이칸 측 포지션과 다단계 구조 논란을 언급했으나, 해당 주식은 5년간 상승해 손실 요인으로 평가. Fannie Mae·Freddie Mac 숏은 높은 변동성과 높은 PER(253 등)을 언급하며 스윙 매매 대상으로 설명. Howard Hughes 숏은 부동산 개발 업체로 PER 약 45 언급. Freddie Mac 관련 숏은 무수익 상태 언급. Restaurant Brands International(버거킹·팀홀튼 등) 숏은 5년간 주가가 크게 상회해 손실로 제시. [종합 평가] 대부분의 롱은 수익, 숏은 손실로 보여 애크먼의 포트폴리오 성과에 비판적 시각 제시. 펀드 비용 구조(운용보수 2.8%, 성과보수 최대 16%)는 과도하다고 지적하며 펀드 투자 회피를 권고. [전망] 진행자는 애크먼 및 아이칸 간 갈등 등 향후 관찰 의지를 밝혔으나, 특정 종목의 1~3개월 방향 예측은 제시하지 않음. 아이칸 Icahn 포트폴리오 대비 장기 성과 비교에서도 과거 실적 위주 설명.
다듬은 글
today we review a 3.9 billion dollar stock portfolio ladies and gentlemen put your hands together for Bill Ackman if you don't know who this is while he's not nearly as famous as Steve Eisman if and if you don't know who Steve Eisman is well where have you been he was famous for the big short making billions of dollars shorting the financial crisis and Bill Ackman was also a part of that insanity if we go into his Wikipedia page under his career we can learn that well Ackman bought credit default swaps against MBIA corporate debt and sold them for a large profit during the financial crisis in 2007-2008 he reported covering a short position on MBIA On January 16th 2009 according to the SEC but that's not where I've learned to Bill Ackman oh no I have a bit of a drama bug and if we take a read a little farther in 2003 a few developed between Ackman and Carl Icahn over a deal involving Hollywood Realty Tootie Property Trust acquired Hollywood paying on 136 point 16 per share under the terms Icahn owed Ackman investors about 4.5 million but he refused to pay Ackman sued 8 years later and court forced Icahn to pay four point five million plus nine percent interest per year since the date of this sale and it wouldn't stop there no ladies and gentlemen this moved into Herbalife which I'm not gonna spoil for you yet because that's part of the portfolio which we're gonna analyze but where he really warms my heart is with his financial advice on deep diving and understanding companies I even include this link to this video in my stock market investing course on passive income for dummies and Bill Ackman is probably one of the most world-renowned investors for teaching people the basics of balance sheets and understanding companies I said but in light of his ladies and gentlemen we're gonna break down purchase square Holdings which is Bill Ackman's three point nine billion dollar fund it looks so for it to break and all of us down for you Oh welcome back my passive income investors I like this is the continued in a series of videos where I break down investors holdings I just recently did one on kevin O'Leary I'll leave the link in the description below you can check that out as well but we're gonna hop right into this just by checking out person square Holdings as it comes up on my Scotia I try to count which we can see hasn't been doing that well over its inception over the last five years ladies and gentlemen and only recently has it really started coming back but it plays a fairly healthy dividend and it has an extremely low p/e ratio only two point eight and if we take a look at their news well purchased we're holding exits United Technologies which is the most recent thing and they've been exiting a lot of positions but we want to see their holdings I mean that's what we're here for right so taking a quick peek guys we're gonna look at the contribution in 2019 things have changed this is just the most recent information they have posted on their website so taking a look we're gonna start with the contribution to the tractors which is a weird way of talking about his short positions but let's just start with the Contra beauty one at a time starting with automatic data processing not 100% certain of what this company is capable of but this is looks like it has been one of his good holdings from 2015 as we can see the entire position should be up about ninety-eight percent which is absolutely incredible this company also pays a two point one six percent dividend yield and it says automatic data processing in commonly known as ADP is an American provider of human resource management software and services so that's one of his better holdings clearly one of his more interesting holdings that I totally agree with is Lowe's company because over the last five years Home Depot and Lowe's have been on a tear ladies and gentlemen the housing market has been on fire just as much as the stock market has and yeah we can see that he should be getting a really decent rate of return including what would have should have been a nice healthy increase on a dividend now probably you dividend investors out there are probably the biggest fan of this holding which makes up Starbucks Starbucks makes up a decent chunk of his holdings and again over a five-year term she'd done increasingly well now the funny thing about his entire Holdings is that he hasn't really made any money yet all of these positions that he's holding long have done incredibly well and I'm gonna give you my personal opinion on where I think he's kind of gone wrong with his portfolio at the end of it so do stick around the end of the video but moving into his final long position ladies gentlemen Chipotle now depending on how recent this position was he might have done pretty well considering anyone buying that food scare that happened I don't know if you remember people were getting salmonella poisoning from that Chipotle grill and sure enough the stock took a final beating of a low of right around you know 3 or 250 bucks no but that's AD about 255 bucks and if you bought it somewhere down there I mean you're looking under two hundred percent return you tripled your money ain't nothing wrong with that I don't know how long he's held it for though so moving into his short positions we're just gonna scan through all the short positions where things get who really interesting ladies gentlemen we're gonna start with the most controversial and one of the main reasons I ever found out about Bill Ackman but that was his short in Herbalife as far as I'm concerned the diet is a major loser you know just young man I'd be happy I'd be happy if I could be sure of one thing in my life is you assure of everything he talks about charity that's completely he's not giving it to charity let me remind you that we are on live television so that I really sort of had it with this guy act man he's like the crybaby in the schoolyard he was like one of these little Jewish boys crying that the world was taking advantage of him he claimed that Carl icons position in Herbalife was similar to a Ponzi scheme and it was one of those things where you had to get your friends to sign up and if your friends get people everyone makes money down the chain I'm sure you've been to one of these things you know where you bring your little your juice boxes and you convince your friends your Tupperware parties to sell your friends Tupperware on some kind of prescription based thing and convince them it's a business and get them to do a Tupperware parties and I don't know it's a weird kind of like pyramid scheme as they call them but at the same time it's probably one of the worst short positions he's done because I mean over the last five years it has done nothing but go up and it's quite funny actually considering is a pretty profitable company with only a p/e of 21 so interesting Schwartz moving into his second short position here we got federal National Mortgage Association so it looks like he still has something out against these mortgage companies we can see there is some insane volatility in this guy this looks like one of those companies that you'd want to a swing trade considering it looks like it does hundred-percent movements fairly often like year-over-year it looks like it's it's at least doing 50% pops 20% pops here and there like look at this this is wild so the federal National Mortgage Association commonly known as Fannie Mae all Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac ladies gentlemen is the United States government sponsored enterprises and since 1968 a publicly traded company and with aap oh my goodness oh that's probably why we got so much volatility we got a PE of a 253 oh that's wild moving into the next short we got Howard Hughes I can see why he'd be shorting that though but Howard Hughes we got a company here that Howard Hughes corporation is a major real estate development and management company based in Dallas Texas it seems like Bill Ackman has something against the housing market same with you know Steve Eisman shorting the Canadian banks Steve Eisman is famous right now guys for basically wanting to short the Canadian banks he's been really getting something about going with the Royal Bank and Canadian Piro Bank which are some of my holdings to be honest I hold Canadian pyrrole Bank but let's just keep I'm moving forward here but Howard Hughes it begins as a part of an oil drilling tool business founded by a Howard R Hughes sir 1913 fairly high p/e though at 45 not as high as the last one but let's take a look and see what else we got here so Federal Home Loan mortgages oh man these home shorts to the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation known as our Freddie Mac there we go Freddie Mae and Freddie Mac so same company volatile as heck and this one's not even profitable with no PE ladies and gentlemen and moving into the final the final short restaurant Brands International Inc restaurant brands obviously holds a bunch of companies including Burger King Tim Hortons Tim Hortons really famous here in Canada I see it everywhere all the time it's like not nearly as famous globally but if you know Tim Hortons consider slapping like we got Popeyes Burger King I also got a Burger King with my girl friendly offer a lot of coupons for you frugal people out there check them Burger King coupons out and over five years Burger King has substantially outperformed so it's crazy that most of his short positions are up so he's losing money guys he's bleeding capital left right and center of this poor bugger so I'm gonna give you my personal opinion on Persian square Holdings and I want to start by saying we could take a look at the dividends but before we take a look at the dividends which only really equate to basically 40 cents a year or that two point whatever that percent was what was a 2.2 percent dividend yield I want you to be reminded of the key information document here that says on more the one off cost ongoing costs and incidental cost this is where things get astronomical which is why I will not give my money to mutual fund managers but nonetheless ladies and gentlemen we got a portfolio transaction cost 0.62% oh my goodness the impact of the cost of buying and selling underlying investments for the product ongoing costs 2.8 percent which is more than the bloody dividend yield the impact of the management feet payable to the manager and fees and expenses of the company's other service providers and then finally the performance fee of what which has been performing miserably the impact of the variable performance fee payable to the manager equal to a maximum 16 percent of any gains attributed to the company's fee-paying shares can you believe the greed in this friggin payment structure for a company that has consistently underperformed the market for the last five bloody years I would avoid this guy like the plague recently Blackmun his name's staying really under the table with Carl Icahn so I mean it's it's been it's sad because I really enjoyed the drama ladies and gentleman I'm a bit of a drama bug as I mentioned before so I mean I'm gonna I'm gonna continue keeping an eye out on this guy I love the know what you guys think personally about Bill Ackman's holdings and his billion dollar fund it's some super interesting stuff considering this guy was a mentor to me and it's it's crazy to think that I almost considered investing money with him it's always a fun reminder ladies and gentlemen that if we compare a bill ackman to his arch-nemesis choral icons company the one that owns Herbalife we can see the five year performance literally isn't that much better but the only difference even though you'd be down 30% over the five years you'd be collecting a 30% dividend yield oh my goodness you beep up about 25-30 percent if the dividend yield didn't increase but we got a way better pea we got a half-decent p/e ratio but if we go over the max time of icons and tire history he actually hasn't done that bad considering since 2000 I mean we can see a total stock returns 651 percent plus an incredible healthy dividend yield and heck maybe some awesome swing moments as well so it just warms my heart to get Tony's touched on the nostalgic past of the drama billionaires fighting it out a public TV always good reminder I love to know what you guys think as always in a comment section below and consider slapping alike if you're new here subscribe guys and again if you want to check out some of our further ideas on passive income check out passive income for dummies again all description box below but stay cool stay awesome I look forward to showing you guys real soon
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