저자: KyleLivingston · 외국인
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레이 달리오의 최근 포트폴리오 변화(알리바바·P&G·펩시 매수, 신흥국 인덱스·월마트 매도)를 근거로 경기침체 대비 방어주와 배당주 분할매수 전략을 제시한 영상. 달리오 포트폴리오 분석: 알리바바 비중 29.73% 확대, P&G 10.7% 추가 매입. 알리바바는 고점 대비 약 70% 하락 상태로 언급됨. 신흥국 노출 축소: 과거 대형 보유였던 신흥국 인덱스펀드 3종 대량 매도. 월마트는 밸류에이션 부담으로 매도한 것으로 추정. 배당수익률 기반 매수 전략: P&G 배당수익률 역사적 상단 약 3%, 현재 2% 근처. 펩시는 평균 취득 배당률 약 3%, 3% 도달 시 매수 지표로 제시. 존슨앤드존슨은 2.7% 부근 분할매수 언급. 맥도날드는 시작 배당률 2.4%, 하락 후 2.5~2.7% 구간을 매수 참고점으로 제시. 중국 관련: 달리오가 중국의 기축통화 도전 가능성을 언급하는 영상을 근거로 위안화 강세 흐름과 중국 노출 기업 보유를 해석함. 경기 전망: 연준 금리 인상 지연으로 경기침체가 올 것이라고 봄. 원자재(금·우라늄·석유)는 장기적으로 유망하다고 언급. 리스크: 미국 필수소비재·헬스케어 방어주도 인플레이션과 물류 문제의 영향을 받을 수 있음. 개인 판단에 따른 분할매수 방식이며 확정적 수익 보장은 없음. 출연자 견해: 경기침체 가능성 높음, 배당주 분할매수 유효, 중국 신흥 강국 가능성 인식.
다듬은 글
once in a blue moon we get incredibly enlightened by some of the greatest investors of our entire generation and today we're fixating on a guy called ray dalio that runs a hedge fund called bridge waters that manages over 17 billion dollars and he just dropped a bombshell of a video that i'm going to recommend that you guys watch and we're going to break down his portfolio with his buys his cells some of the questionable things he's doing and the opportunities right now of a lifetime in some of the specific companies he's buying but the video that i watched last night was called the principles of dealing with the changing world order by ray dalio i learned more in this 40 minute video that i have learned through my entire high school history classes and i'm going to leave that link i highly recommend you watch it you're going to learn a lot about the falls and divides between currency growth and how empires have come and gone it's really fascinating stuff but for those of you that don't know ray dalio this is what his current portfolio looks like it comes out of this hedgefallow.com that follows his portfolios his buys and sells his trades and he has really dramatically shifted his portfolio because when i last reviewed this he had large exposure to foreign index funds that gave you exposure to the emerging markets and clearly in these turbulent times we can tell he doesn't want exposure to those kind of emerging markets and it looks like he's getting that exposure through us companies that have global diversification in the way they sell products so before we kind of take a broader view of his portfolio let's talk about the largest trades because this is where things get unbelievably interesting and the first and foremost guys in the last i guess quarter here he's been gobbling up alibaba like crazy here he's increased the position by 29.73 probably one of the largest buys that he's done out of everything he's done in the last quarter and just take a look at alibaba today guys it is now trading so far down i mean from its all-time high guys it is now down 70 percent this thing ceases to find a bottom and is still waiting on my buy list for the turnaround now the reason that i think he wants so much exposure to china or primarily some exposure to china is in that video you'll notice that he really talks kind of indirectly about how china is this upcoming superpower that could potentially take control of the world reserve currency and explains again in that video how world reserve currencies come into being but take a look at the chinese you want this thing against the us dollar has been rallying aggressively since the 2020 crash here guys like it's incredible to see that if you're kind of a forex trader that the yuan has been a great place to park capital against the usd now taking a look at some of his other big trades proctor and gamble now this is one of those most foundational companies that anybody can put in their portfolio he's been adding an extra 10.7 percent here and let's just talk about procter gamble because i've been dying for the day that i can re-add some of these mega cap dividend growth beast aristocrat companies to my own personal portfolio and i mentioned that if these things ever tank like they are now i would be selling off index funds to start redirecting capital this way now let's take a look because right now unfortunately we're only down 11.4 percent i think we're going to be heading into a recession the federal reserve has been holding off on raising interest rates for far too long and every indicator from past recessions are coming up again and again and again and we're just seeing a delayed response from the fed so whether we head that way i'm speculating that we are and these companies unfortunately are going to get pulled down with that out you know the tide going out but the reason that i want you to pay attention to these you don't even have to look at trading them off the stock price or trying to buy the dips what i primarily do is just look at the historical dividend yield because right now these dividend yields have been as low as they've been in a very long time but if we go back to even 2018 procter gamble was paying a 3.6 dividend yield and historically it's been as high as three percent on average and right now we're coming out of the two percent low so as this thing approaches three percent that's what i'm going to use the indicator to start buying back into it and i think we've got a lot lower to go on some of these companies that are being affected by inflation and obviously logistics problems and procter gamble is no exception but with a 347 billion dollar market cap if you can buy one of the like the largest companies in the world that's exposed to things like toothpaste and toilet paper by god this is one you don't want to miss out on continuing on here folks let's talk about pepsi one that i already have large exposure to with obviously the raising prices of aluminum they produce a lot of aluminum cans a lot of those packaging goods we're going to start seeing those prices affecting our daily lives but let's use pepsi another one of these indicators right now guys it's trading down 12 percent with a 2.78 dividend yield when i was buying this it already had over three percent yield my average yield on cost is around three percent and we can see historically once in a blue moon this thing will peak over three percent and i would use that as an indicator to start buying into it as well now let's take a look at a couple of the other ones with johnson and johnson and mcdonald's now in these historical recessionary periods typically we see an outperformance in commodities healthcare sometimes financials if it's an interest-raising environment depending on how bad the economy is impacted because obviously 2008 was not a time to own financial stocks and then obviously you have a few other sectors that will be outliers but i really think healthcare is going to do just fine through this and just taking a look at johnson and johnson here from its all-time high it's down five percent it's definitely outperforming the s p 500 so it would be no surprise that the historical dividend yield doesn't really bump up that much and we can see going through the past year it looks like it hovers between 2.5 and 3 so as it kind of gets to that 2.7 range we could easily use that as an indicator to start cost averaging into it here now let's talk about mcdonald's real quick so i have this list of companies that i have been following for a very long time i took some strategic investments in the march 2020 crash primarily focusing on reits and financials which did exceptionally well but what i missed out on was the incredible dips in these lifelong companies that you should look to acquire and mcdonald's is no exception to that guys and it's currently trading down 17 with a starting yield of 2.4 percent now i haven't been really talking about the p e ratios but these things are starting to go back to the teens and that's when things get very attractive now again just using the dividend is an indicator to buy rather than focusing on trying to figure out when the stock's at a good valuation because these companies i don't think the value matters as much is just holding them over a 30-year period of time but we can see here guys the historical dividend yield typically bleeds between 2.5 and 3 but we've only hit 3 like 7 years ago so i have a hard time believing we can get back to that three percent so honestly if you're looking to pick this thing up once it gets to that 2.5 2.7 range could be a good indicating time to do so but whether we go down farther from here i don't know man these things can drop so low but there's going to be some attention coming back their way now let's talk about the stocks that he's selling because as i mentioned he's been really exiting these kind of emerging market index funds and again anybody invested in russia china just been getting absolutely slaughtered so it looks like he's been trying to wind away from those markets he sold off two of his largest holdings here which he dumped massive amounts of i mean all of these look at this three of his major cells have been all emerging market index funds these were one of the largest proponents of his portfolio again not even like a year ago guys and what i found more intriguing was walmart why is he selling walmart so i didn't really understand this because walmart's another one of these foundational companies recession proof we're all going to need to buy these products and use the store walmart's been around forever right it's one of the largest companies in the world but the reason i think he's selling walmart is because the valuation is extraordinarily high and i've said this about these these shopping places like i don't know how walmart costco are able to trade at such high valuations considering you can buy facebook close to the teens now but you can't buy costco under a 42 pe the weird thing that i find about this though is these companies have been performing very well through the volatile moments here but what's most intriguing is in his top holdings it doesn't really look like um that he got rid of costco by any major degree because it's still the one of the largest positions in his tire portfolio but taking a look at this from the broad view i find it intriguing that for a guy that's been through a lot of these periods in time isn't buying gold like i i just feel like commodities right now are going to be one of the hottest markets in recessionary periods and through all the ups and downs people know commodities are the place you want to be for long long long periods of time because they're always going to be needed always going to be needed guys gold uranium i mean oil people thought oil was dead and here we are back in the new oil renaissance but just intriguingly enough guys like yeah gold's way at the bottom of his list here but again we've got some other really intriguing stocks that are very foundational falling off a cliff right now like starbucks and he's got a little exposure with jd here some more of those chinese stocks so i feel like based off that video that he released he's more inclined to think china has capability of being a new world superpower so we can see how he's exposing himself to those sectors even with some of these companies obviously like procter gamble pepsi starbucks all of them have global exposure with large chinese exposure here guys even all of these companies right so i find this very very intriguing and i want to pass that question off to you at this point guys i know this is kind of just a really quick insight into what ray dalio is doing but the guy is literally managing over 17 billion dollars he's is iconic as warren buffett and outperforming the market and the historical period he's been in the market so very intriguing stuff tomorrow i'm going to update you on my portfolio and some of the stuff that i mentioned in here and how i want to take advantage of the drop in procter and gamble mcdonald's starbucks and what i end up doing so consider subscribing for that bring that video out on the weekend but stay cool stay awesome and as always i look forward to catching you in the next one
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