We would have had a July rate cut based on the revised jobs data: Jeremy Siegel

요약 보기

Siegel은 수정된 고용 데이터를 보면 7월 금리 인하가 있었을 가능성이 높다고 주장하며, 노동 데이터 응답률 저하와 발표 지연을 문제 삼는다. 미국 고용은 뚜렷이 둔화 중이나 경기침체는 아니라고 보고, 상반기 GDP 평균 1.2%와 하반기 관세 효과 본격화를 예상한다. 다만 실적·가이던스는 양호하고 AI 생산성 향상이 관세 비용 부담을 상쇄해 주식시장이 강세를 보이는 배경이라고 설명한다.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. First, let me say that uh the numbers are not rigged and Trump made that accusation uh right after he heard them. No, they're they're not manipulated. They're not rigged. That said, they could be doing a much better job uh than they've been doing. Um the response rate has gone down to their surveys.

02. they uh they should put much stricter time limits uh on on how long they to it takes for them to respond. Um uh they put out this 50-year high change and with no explanation well why was there such a difference? What what you know if if someone makes a a mistake that's a 50-year high I would expect some sort of an explanation.

03. I think that the the the response rate to all the surveys have gone down. Uh Loretta Meester who you former u president of Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland um you know she mentioned the jolts report an important report for the government of my understanding is a jolt report response rate is down to 20%.

04. Now, a lot of these went down during CO, but we we're over CO and we should we should be back. The government should be stricter. They should mandate these forms filled out in a timely way because I think there's very little question now that had we gotten the data that as it was revised, we probably would have had a July rate cut.

05. Mhm. Oh, so it's interesting, Jeremy, what you're saying here because actually it's not the first time I've heard criticism of these numbers. And I've heard in the past that we should be taking these numbers, the payroll numbers, the official numbers, with a grain of salt given the fact that they're they're always revised.

06. And also the fact that the long-term unemployed are not counted and nor are those who have just given up looking for a job. So if if we just sort of put the official numbers aside for a second, Jeremy, what do you think the real state of the labor market looks like right now in the US? Well, I think it's definitely very much slowing.

07. I mean, now with this revision, we're in uh uh sync with the ADP report, which is that private report that comes out on the Wednesday before the Friday report. I mean, we we really have moved down substantially. Some of it, of course, is the big reduction in in uh the immigration uh into the United States and the number of jobs the uh that has it, but that's not all of it.

08. So, we are definitely slowing down. Uh the unemployment rate jumped. It just missed another tenth of of a percent. Now, I do not believe we're going into a recession, but we are in the first half of this year, uh, GDP, uh, only averaged 1.2%. Uh, negative in the first quarter, 3% in the second, but the momentum into this quarter looks like the low twos.

09. And I think in the second half of the year, we're really going to see the effect of tariffs. uh as you had on your program earlier uh it it really uh a lot of the goods that were sold in the second quarter were out of inventory bought before those tariffs took effect. Uh so that is going to be affect affected uh later on.

10. That being said, earnings have been good, guidance has been good, not as bad as fear. AI is moving strongly along. There is a lot of optimism that AI can reduce the impact of tariffs. What I mean is productivity gains that are implemented by firms using AI can offset the increase in the cost of their inputs in order to maintain margins and profits.

11. I think that that is the reason why Wall Street and stocks have been so strong uh you know despite the fact that uh you know we have the the highest uh uh tariff levels in in almost a century.