저자: RenéSellmann · 외국인
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하워드 막스의 최신 메모를 바탕으로, 인터넷·기술 기반 사업모델이 기존 가치평가 방식에 도전하고 있다는 점을 다룬 영상이다. 결론: 기술·인터넷 기업은 빠르게 성장할 수 있어 가치평가가 더 어려워졌으며, 투자자는 정량 분석과 함께 정성적 판단을 키워야 한다. 배경: 코로나19 이후 온라인 전환이 3~4년 앞당겨졌고 이는 영구적 변화로 보인다. 이커머스 기업(Etsy, Cimpress 등)은 저점 대비 5~10배 상승했고, 게임·긱워크 플랫폼(Upwork, Fiverr)도 수혜를 입었다. 막스 메모 요지: 투자자는 열린 마음으로 환경 변화에 적응해야 하며, 막스 본인도 가치투자 접근을 고수하지만 아들 앤드류의 기술주 중심 관점을 인정한다. 인터넷 기업은 실물자산이 적어 자본비용이 낮고 증분 이익률이 높아 빠르게 확장된다. 가치평가가 어려워지는 세 가지 이유: 첫째, 결과 분포가 매우 넓어 승자 독식 효과로 대박과 대실패가 공존한다. 둘째, 성장을 위해 현금흐름을 모두 재투자해 DCF의 초기 현금흐름 입력값을 추정하기 어렵다. 셋째, 고성장 기간이 길어져 영구성장률 가정이 중요해지지만 장기 성장률은 보통 4~5% 수렴한다는 맥킨지 분석이 제시된다. 영상 속 저자의 고민: 본인 투자 체크리스트는 '현금흐름 플러스'를 요구하지만, Wix.com처럼 현금흐름이 적은 고평가 성장주 평가에 어려움을 느낀다고 밝힌다. 리스크: 가치투자자의 관찰 가능한 현재 가치 선호와 무형·미래 성장 기대 사이의 긴장이 핵심 과제로 남는다. 특정 종목 매수·매도 추천이나 시장 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
hello fellow intelligent investors my name is renee zellman and today i want to continue to talk about howard mark's latest memo in this video i discussed to what extent the emergence of new and technology-based business models that can be scaled much more rapidly and frictionlessly presents a challenge for investors when it comes to their attempt to value businesses properly so if you want to learn whether you need to adjust your investment framework or process stay tuned have you ever wondered how you can make your hard-earned money work for you have you ever dreamed of building generational wealth and leaving a legacy my name is renee zellman and i'll teach you how you can manage and invest your money with confidence a long-term vision and without losing your mind join me on my journey of intelligent investing and learn how smart people can compound their money effectively and accumulate wealth all right this is actually the second video of a three part video series in which i discussed some of the most important points howard marx brought up in his latest memo so if you have missed my first video on this topic in which i share my first key land key learning from marx make sure to check out this video first and as always it would be much appreciated if you like the video leave a comment or even subscribe to the channel so besides the false dichotomy between growth and value which i discussed in the last video marx discussed another concept that i want to share with you today a second point marx makes is how the internet or more generally speaking technology changed the investment landscape if you have followed the markets in 2020 you will have noticed that especially internet-based businesses have been major beneficiaries of the corona corona virus pandemic the pandemic and the subsequent lockdowns have changed people overnight i would say and these behavioral or habitual changes will likely persist and have a big and lasting impact on businesses for instance more and more consumers are ordering online nowadays in fact market research reports indicate that the coronavirus pandemic has put forward e-commerce penetration by about three to four years and there's actually a term for this development according to wikipedia a new normal is a state to which an economy society etc settles following a crisis when this differs from the situation that prevailed prior to the start of the crisis and i think it is fair to say that what we are seeing is likely a permanent acceleration of the shift to online there will be no going back if you ask me just think of e-commerce companies like for example etsy or c limited whose stocks have gone up 5x almost 10x since the march lows and these companies have also seen insane year-over-year growth rates similarly gaming companies be it gaming publishers or developers or employment marketplaces like upwork or fiverr have also hugely benefited from the pandemic now what does all of this have to do with howard mark's latest memo you may wonder well in his new memo marks essentially outlines that a key strength of investors is to always be open-minded and to be willing to adapt to a new environment and he himself describes himself as a very cautious investor who is always focusing on the downside risk first before considering any upside potential a bargain-hand hunter that isn't willing to pay higher multiples for stocks for stock he writes these influences and experiences led me to adopt a value approach and the person of a bargain hunter which has served me well in my chosen field but over the course of his essay howard marx then keeps contrasting his philosophy to that of his son andrew who is also working in the investment industry he writes his so andrew's first face was spent as a buffett nerd consuming everything written by the oracle and adhering strongly to his philosophy but over time he has developed his own perspective and transitioned to investing primarily in technology and other growth oriented company this contrast of viewpoints particularly in 2020 he yes has created extraordinary opportunities for discussion and learning when i consider this new world i think fundamental investors need to be willing to thoroughly examine situations including those with heavy dependency on intangible assets and growth into the distant future with the goal of achieving real insight basically marx admits that he too needs to adapt his investment approach to the to the new world we live in right now obviously the internet is not new but the impact of technology has certainly become much stronger in recent years and this trend was reinforced in a way by the pandemic and people being stuck at home now with regard to this change howard max raises awareness for a couple of trends that investors need to be aware of firstly innovation and technical adoption are happening at a much more rapid pace than ever before and secondly since many of these companies are selling products primarily made with code their costs of capital requirements are extremely low and their profitability especially on incremental sales is unusually high thus the economics of winners have never been more attractive with the very high profit margins and minimal capital requirements so the point howard marx is making here is that internet-based businesses businesses that don't require a lot of tangible assets can scale their businesses much more rapidly and frictionlessly by contrast physical items are much heavier and they take up space and they need to be stored somewhere and storing requires money of course and so does transportation and so margins of such companies will obviously be smaller and overall it just takes longer to produce and scale a business that relies on physical assets and again marx stresses what i have just said here because the friction and marginal cost of scaling over the internet can be so low businesses can grow much more rapidly than ever before so unlike traditional businesses that rely primarily on physical assets and where growth is bounded by the physical limitations of a product's weight maybe the opening hours of the store the construction time of new factories logistics and transportation there are much fewer constraints in the internet and growth rates of such technology and internet-based businesses are often not limited by physical constraints but rather by people's behavior because people's behavior often changes much more slowly but as i've just pointed out i think the corona virus pandemic has basically pulled forward this behavioral change i think what marx describes in his memo so the fact that some companies can grow much more rapidly than in the past has one major implication and that is that valuation work becomes much harder and is much more challenging and i think there are three reasons for the fact that valuation becomes more challenging firstly the range of possible outcomes is much greater and therefore harder to predict it's important to consider the probabilities of different outcomes as they will often be massive winners but also many massive losers just consider marketplace network effect businesses or maybe network effect businesses in general because networks tend to see a winner takes all effects this helps businesses get very big very fast but of course there will also be many losers marx describes a disruptive company in this memo a company that has seen considerable growth but is still not really profitable yet company b seems more conceptual in nature and more dependent on developments and the distant future that are subject to significant uncertainty so valuing it might have to be done on the basis of broad ranges for future sales and profitability rather than reliable point estimates now i think there are two more reasons why valuing businesses has become more difficult a key input in a dcf so a discounted cash flow method that helps you estimate the intrinsic value of a company well the key input is a firm's cash flow like the initial cash flow how much cash does the company generate today and this is one of the most important inputs in your dcf model but today many businesses focus on scaling their business first they want to be the winner that benefits from the winner takes all effect therefore they plow all of their cash flows back into the business which makes it harder to come up with a correct cash flow input in your dcf model you can only guess what kind of margins the company will have in the future or could potentially have right now if it would not reinvest all of its profits again here here's what howard marx wrote about this development it has never been more acceptable for public companies to lose money in the pursuit of a large price down the road this in turn leads to obfuscation of the real potential economics of winners and makes differentiating between winners and losers difficult without great insightful effort to peel back the onion so in a way he stresses the point that i've made in my last video investors cannot only rely on their quantitative analysis and instead their judgment regarding qualitative factors will be a key component of their potential returns how long can the company continue to grow at a high rate what's the total addressable market and how will the total addressable market develop over time how durable is the modern for how long of period can the company continue to earn higher rates of return max wrote the key to success lies not on the ability to perform a mathematical calculation but rather in making superior judgments regarding the relevant inputs and quite frankly i have to admit that this is something i have massively struggled with as well in fact one of the overarching investment principles that is part of my investment framework my investment checklist is that the company needs to be cash flow positive but then there are superstar investors like pat dorsey who i look up to but who bet big on companies like wix.com a company which develops and markets a cloud-based platform that basically enables anyone to create a website and i've used the wix product so the pride of the company and i think it's awesome i really love it but i still struggle with valuing the company properly because the firm is trading at such a high price to free cash flow ratio and still throwing off relatively little cash as it keeps reinvesting into the business so in a way i i feel the same way like howard marx feels because he writes when i consider this new world i think fundamental investors need to be willing to thoroughly examine situations including those with heavy dependency on intangible assets and growth in the into the distant future with the goal of achieving real insight however this is to an extent and the ethical to the value investors mentality part of what makes up a value investor's mindset is insistence on observable value in the here and now and an aversion to things that seem ephemeral or uncertain and then there is a third reason why evaluation is possibly more challenging now than ever before due to the development developments that i have just outlined in this video so far it seems likely that some companies can grow at high rates much more longer which makes valuing them again much more difficult and that's because a dcf usually consists of two to three stages there are one or two or maybe even three growth stages and then there is a phase of terminal growth usually after year 10.
and as no company can grow faster than than the company forever because then it would become the economy growth will eventually slow down that's true for every business in fact growth often drops off significantly as companies continue to grow just take a look at this mckenzie chart the chart visualizes the long-term behavior of revenue growth across publicly traded u.s companies and shows that no matter how high or low a company's growth rate over time growth has historically converged to about four to five percent on average and that's why investors usually use a very conservative estimate in their dcf most investors i know simply go for a terminal growth rate of two to three percent and if you consider inflation this practically means that the company isn't growing at all a dcf considers all future cash flows and this counts them back to the present value and what's important to acknowledge here is that the terminal growth period is often the largest component in the total present value if you go for too big of a terminal growth rate you will quickly misjudge the intrinsic value of a company you will overpay for the stock and as a consequence harm your investment returns however there might be very very few businesses that can continue to grow at a higher rate after year 10.
but it's very hard to predict which businesses will achieve such exceptional results now as we have just pointed out businesses that primarily rely on intangible assets and due to the internet can scale their businesses very rapidly you might underestimate the intrinsic value of these businesses if you go for too low of a terminal growth rate maybe even for two low growth rates and the initial growth phases of the the dcf and howard marx addresses this problem as well let me share a few truly enlightening quotes taken from his memoir as i try to keep my videos a little shorter i will not read these last quotes to you but instead you should simply maybe pause the video and i can only encourage you to read these quotes twice overall i think those are some incredibly powerful quotes and marx raises some interesting questions that investors need to think about if they were to successfully invest in the 21st century and this brings us to the end of the video as always may your finances and investments prosper good luck you
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