people장 홈📈 Stock Masters주식 유튜브를 Articles로 읽고 Author의 예측을 실제 가격으로 확인합니다 people장 Board 홈요청하기

한국어 · English

톰리

Accuracy score+2.5
순 place41
Scored calls1152 calls
Hit rate / Market-adjusted / Return-weighted59.5% / 57.0% / 64.2%
1-month return / Market / beta excess return / Peer excess+2.3% / +1.9% / +0.5
Bullish / Bearish / Neutral71.2% / 12.6% / 16.2%
Best horizon1y
Performance badgeLate call badge,Flood badge,Consistent accuracy badge
Main channelCNBC Television
국적외
Note
Updated2026-10-28 07:00:00

Main stocks: #S&P500 (662)#미국기술주 (429)#BTC (427)#미국채금리 (219)#비트코인 (196)

How scores are calculated

TOM LEE: June CPI and PPI show inflation is weakening, this shows Bond Market Prices Out Fed Hikes.

Fundstrat Capital · 2026-07-17 · 유튜브 시청 23,264 · Board Views 8 · International

International

유튜브 썸네일

원문 보기

다듬은 글 보기

Hello everyone, this is Tom Lee. I am the CIO of of July 13th. First, let me start with the details. As of July 10, Granny Shots' price was 27.83, its net asset value was 27.84 , and its total assets were 4.42 billion. Granny J's price was 29.85, its net asset value was 29.83 , and its total assets were 500 million.

And the profitable Granny, Granny I, had a price of 21.28 with total assets of 53 million. Let's look at the results for the week. Over the past week, GRNY, the large- cap Granny, rose 0.94% compared to 1.26% for the S&P 500, which is 32 basis points below the benchmark. Granny J fell 1.6%, compared with a 78 basis point decline for the Russell 2500, or 84 basis points lower.

And the profitable Granny rose 1.1%, compared to a 1.26% gain for the S&P, or 24 basis points lower. Year-to-date, Granny Shots is up 12.5% compared to 11.36% for the S&P, or 117 basis points above the market . Granny J has grown by 16.8% since the beginning of the year. The Russell 2500 rose 20.7%, 391 basis points below the market.

And the profitable Granny rose 10.69% compared to 11.36% for the S&P 500, or 67 basis points lower. The macro indicator I want to highlight is that inflation is weakening, as a lot of data came in this week. Let me highlight a few points. The June core CPI was minus 0.02%. This is deflation . Analysts expected 0.26%.

And here's what's interesting. The CPI includes 108 items, and only seven of them had a significant impact on inflation in the quarter. And again , the overall indicator is negative. So it was a surprise that inflation was falling. Housing costs are another indicator we are closely monitoring, and the annualized rate was 3.28%.

As you can see, this is slightly below the 40-year average. So, housing and real estate are no longer contributing to excessive inflation in the core CPI, and that's a good thing. In fact, 68% of the items in the core CPI report showed deflation, a record high . So I think the inflation story has eased significantly since the June CPI report.

The June core PPI report gave a similar signal. It was 0.2% versus the expected 0.33%. In fact, these reports together influenced expectations for Fed rates. The market expected two rate cuts in March this year. Expectations have shifted to 1.6 increases by the end of June. This is a rather " hawkish" reversal.

This means that four declines were removed from market expectations. But because of those two CPI reports, we actually reversed one decline. Think of it as the speed of change. This is a " dovey" signal, because it is a gradual easing of policy by the central bank. So, the inflation story is weakening.

We are now in reporting season. This week is mostly about finance, but the ones highlighted in red are Granny stocks reporting. These are Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, PNC, BNY, United Health, GE Aerospace and Netflix. The main conclusion for us is that the consumer remains resilient. BofA CEO spoke about AI and growth.

JP Morgan Chairman Jamie Dimon said the consumer was a little stronger this quarter. Perhaps tax refunds contributed to this. And Wells Fargo says consumers have proven resilient. So, let's take a look at Granny's stock performance. The top five performers in GRNY and GRNI are listed here. These are mostly stocks related to artificial intelligence.

The five worst indicators are here. In particular, several industrial companies . Strategy was one of the worst. As for the younger Granny group, here are the top five results. It's all about AI and, you know...Sinclair benefited from some tension in the Middle East. The five worst indicators are here.

I think it's almost a factor bet because these are stocks with high beta and momentum. And there were some specific... Drone manufacturers, where profit fixation was observed. As for the topics that performed best last week, they were seasonality, global labor shortages and AI, and finally, easing financial conditions.

Which is quite logical, considering that the market has started to book fewer increases, which is the same as booking additional decreases. Thank you for your attention, we'll hear from you soon.

#금리#골드만삭스#JP모 calls

← List으로
공유페이스북밴드

이 Articles에 대해 요청(숨김) 수정 요청

Comments 0