저자: MattPocius/출연CathieWood · 외국인
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Cathie Wood의 테슬라 2027년 베어케이스 목표가 1,400달러가 여전히 강세 시나리오라는 주장과, 자율주행 규제 환경이 데이터 기반으로 우호적으로 바뀌고 있다는 낙관적 견해를 다룬다. [테슬라 가치평가 구조] - Cathie Wood 설명: 밸류에이션의 약 1/3은 전기차(EV) 사업 확대, 2/3는 자율주행 및 로보택시 플랫폼에서 나옴. - 자율주행 분야에서 테슬라가 미국 내 도로 및 전 세계 데이터 수집량 1위라 승자독식 구도가 될 것이라는 주장. [자율주행 기술 전망] - 엔드투엔드 접근법은 더 많은 데이터를 필요로 하며, 테슬라 FSD 가격 인하는 완전 자율주행의 안전성 확보가 6개월 내 어렵다는 신호로 해석 가능. - 진행자는 AI 기술의 지수적 발전을 근거로 자율주행 실현은 시기 문제일 뿐이라고 봄. - 출연자 모델: 2033년까지 6개 시나리오 중 다수가 FSD가 인간 운전보다 안전해진다고 가정. [규제 및 안전 데이터] - NHTSA 조사 결과 테슬라 사고 다수는 운전자 과실로 판정되는 경향이 있으며, 자율주행 사용 차량이 다른 차보다 약 40% 이상 안전하다는 주장. - 미국 교통사고 사망자는 최근 5~10년간 3만 명에서 4만 5천 명으로 증가, 규제 당국이 자율주행으로 이를 줄이려 할 것이라는 논리. - 규제 서한(Elon Mode 관련)을 긍정적 신호로 해석. [리스크 언급] - 진행자는 규제 리스크와 로보택시 보급 속도(차주 수익화 모델) 우려를 제기했으나, 출연자는 규제가 데이터 기반으로 완화되고 있다고 반박. [가격 전망] - 테슬라 베어케이스 2027년 목표가 1,400달러 제시. 장기(2033년) 모델 기반 낙관적 전망. [출연자 전망 요약] - 테슬라 자율주행 및 로보택시 사업은 장기적으로 성공 가능성이 높고, 규제 환경은 우호적으로 변화 중이라는 입장.
다듬은 글
Kathy Wood was just on TV to discuss her fourteen hundred dollar 2027 Tesla stock price Target in her bear case let's dive in uh you know the Traders and I were talking here on the desk about Tesla and how your bear case for Tesla is fourteen hundred dollars a shared guy here said he'd take 1400 because that's still pretty bullish what what is in let's just even say the bear case what assumptions are made about its business to get to that 1400 uh by 27 number well about a third of our valuation is associated with electric vehicles EVs and scaling them and as uh as you mentioned turkey a plant there uh you know many countries do want a Tesla plant because is this is the new world right uh so that's good this is all working out and then the then two-thirds of our valuation is around autonomous and uh autonomous taxi platforms uh we think Tesla is in the poll position here in the United States it has collected more data about our roads and actually other roads around the world uh then all of the other companies combined and therefore it has more Corner cases and probably will be the company that will get people from point A to point B as quickly and safely as possible so it's a winner take most Market I absolutely you 100 agree with Kathy Wood here overall and Elon said recently that and his team that they don't just need a lot of data wait they need good data if you have a lot of bad drivers yeah that's not really going to help so Tesla needs data from the best drivers and Tesla needs all of these edge cases but the only way to really get those is if you have a lot of cars on the road and Tesla has so many cars on the road Tesla just produced its 5 millionth vehicle and it also appears to me that with a new approach that Tesla is using the end to end approach I think with that approach Tesla actually needs even more data than how much data they thought before they actually need and that's probably one of the reasons why Tesla just cut the price of full self-driving however I'm not naive I think that price could also indicate very clearly to me as a Tesla stock investor that Tesla does not think that at least in the next six months or so the Tesla will actually solve fossil driving meaning postal driving would be safer than human driving so whether it's our base case uh it just that just means okay autonomous uh perhaps takes a little longer to play out uh or the bull case it happens much more quickly I personally model Tesla stock until 2033 I'll share a few Snippets from my validation model I have six cases for myself and not in every single one of them I assume that full self driving is going to be solved to a point where it's actually safer than human driving but generally overall if you just assume a certain rate of progress with full cell driving knowing that technology is typically get better exponentially especially as we get more data I can't make a logical argument that makes sense that would say that in the long term this is not going to work I mean we got chat GPT writing better articles than most people could better poems I actually find Chad GPT to be more useful than Google the charge of the E4 version chat gbd3 it sucks but the gpt4 version is pretty good actually although you got to pay for it and that seemingly just came out of nowhere so it's really inevitable just a matter of time before fossil driving gets solved the question is when but to me as an investor really there's not much of a difference between fossil driving I mean they're obviously there's a difference but fundamentally what I we invested in Tesla stock or not that question would not be answered differently however Tesla solves full self-driving in 2024 or 25 or 2029 because if Tesla can't solve it sooner that means other companies also can't solve it sooner I am completely convinced that castle will be the first company to solve full self driving because it has the most data but by that I mean the first company that will actually be able to scale its Fleet quickly because you can I mean full stop driving in some ways is already sold in San Francisco if you use HD Maps I'm talking about a version of also driving that actually scale so Tesla I believe it'll be the first company to actually do that so even the the if it takes longer to play out it's still 1400.
um and and that sort of that seems extremely optimistic in terms of even the regulatory um green lights that Tesla would need for autonomy it seems also you know that the model where Tesla owners would own their cars and then they would go out and earn them money during the day by driving people around that also seems sort of optimistic in terms of the uptake of that Kathy so you know for two-thirds of the valuation do you feel like that there's risk even around the bear case at all with the two-thirds well um actually the risks are going down because Regulators are very data driven I absolutely 100 agree with what Kathy Wood just said here and she's not making things up I actually have something that will back it up so remember this letter from Nitza that it sent to Elon and everyone was starting to freak out and the bear said oh this is proof that Tesla autopilot and fossa driving is not happening because now The Regulators are coming in and they will make it really difficult for Elon and Tesla well if you actually read what do I said you would have a very different conclusion because here's what Kevin said he summarized this perfectly uh the letter the full letter is insanely bullish on page 11 of the demand the letter States describe in detail any Lessons Learned and or findings from driving the vehicles with the subject software Elon mode enabled they are literally giving Elon Musk the opportunity to respond with positive information about the Tesla nag being off that's what the whole thing was about the the um the Elon Musk mode supposedly turns off the nag so maybe you don't need to pay attention perhaps which the regulator was worried about but of course Regulators also they want to know how do you turn this mode on how many cars have the ability to turn it on how many have turned it on but to go further and say but hey while you're at it has it helped what did you learn in your study the Nita is extremely interested in autopilot in a good way this is not a regulator trying to shut Elon and Tesla down this is a regulator who sees the benefits of saving lives with autopilot incredibly reasonable and exciting opportunity for Tesla the letter if Elon mode proves useful could actually be the beginning of the end of the Tesla autopilot next and proof that the regulator actually will embrace the autopilot and full cell driving so I agree with Kevin's assessment here that this is a holy smokes moment up until roughly now you know I I was a bit more bearish on the things on the regular regulatory side especially with Elon saying certain things politically and making a certain party in the US upset it didn't seem great but I mean it's like the opposite thing is happening of what you would expect to happen these people are actually relatively reasonable and what Regulators have been experiencing especially in the transportation sector is that the number of auto deaths in the United States have gone up has gone up during the past five to ten years from thirty thousand to forty five thousand after Decades of falling thanks to Auto safety measures so the national highway and Transportation safety board and other Transportation authorities want to turn that Trend back down why has it happened a lot of it is because of texting and therefore a disproportionate number of young people are dying in auto accidents so the data supports what Tesla is doing 80 to 90 percent of all accidents on the roads are caused by human error if you take the human being out of the equation uh and um and use AI to get people from point A to point B as safely as quickly as possible um I think the the the authorities The Regulators are going to be persuaded by the data in fact they already have been in terms of the fatalities in uh in Tesla's cars they examine them they say not Tesla's fault for the most part and oh by the way uh people driving in Tesla cars are 40 plus safer uh with autopilot and FSD than in other cars yep absolutely 100 right also every single investigation is basically the same there's an investigation whereas a lot of drama from the media and then the results come back from The Regulators from the investigators saying oh uh it was not Tesla's fault it was the driver's fault like this one right here drunk driver or semi-autonomous Tesla crashed into police a police car after 150 warnings the drunk driver received 150 warnings to put their hands back on the steering wheel before crashing into a police car injuring six people every investigation pretty much comes to very similar results where Tesla is exonerated although the media doesn't really acknowledge that because it doesn't get as many clicks it does not get as much attention so some consumers still have the bad impression but the truth is Regulators when they look at this and they investigated so many and they know oh yeah yeah the next one is probably also I there's nothing to see here really probably it's going to be fine again just like all of the other times and they keep seeing this over and over and over again think that actually helps Tesla in some way because Regulators are getting experience with Tesla vehicles and they see that in this particular case for example it warned the driver 150 times before the driver actually eventually crashed obviously that's not the fault of Tesla and if you like to see my Tesla validation model including all of my assumptions together with all of the Tesla stock prices that I would be willing to pay each year for Tesla stock between 2023 and 2033 if you'd like to see that I click on the link in the description of this video to take you to my patreon where you will also be able to see exclusive videos for example I just posted this warning which should be viewed before September 20th and I just recorded this video the biggest mistake I see Tesla stock investors make I'm aiming to post about a video a day this month every day I want to thank again to all my patreon supporters and thank you so much for watching this video
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