원문 보기
The market mood is changing or has changed. The fear factors that were scaring us till yesterday are now completely under control. Crude, which was at $110 and $120, has now calmed down and returned to around $72. The threat of war looming between the US and Iran also now appears to be completely averted.
The economic picture is also good and FIIs also seem to be getting tired of selling. Their selling has been put on hold. Even if there is not a very big purchase. We haven't even walked for the last two years. At a time when markets like Korea have doubled. Our markets have remained range-bound and consolidated.
So is the script for a new bull run being prepared? And if so, where will leadership be found? To discuss all this, a very special guest has joined us today, Motilal Oswal Chairman Ramdev Agarwal Ramdev Sir, good morning. First of all, thank you very much for coming to the studio of CMBC Awas and what I said is that a bad phase of the market seems to be passing.
There was a feeling that what happened in March and the first half of April was a nightmare. There was a nightmare that we are now trying to talk about. See, when troubles come, they come from all sides simultaneously. People were buying gold like crazy. There was also $5000 to buy gold for $55000. Then after that the oil also doubled.
Then the FI also had to be sold. AI storage also turned upside down. And on top of that, there was also this fear of drought, i.e. monsoon. And there was such a fear of monsoon that there would be zero rain for the entire 15-20 days in the month of June. So what happens for the same reason? All these problems come together.
And weaker currency leads to even weaker meaning intense FI selling. So, all these problems arose and yet how much did the market go down? It went up to around 23,000 and then it went up to 180. Whatever is there, it means a lot between 26,000 and 22,000, that is, they spent the entire 2 years and the earnings kept increasing gradually.
Sometimes 8%, sometimes 10%, so I feel that the way the strength is visible in the economy, brother, the highest high frequency number is coming in automotive, there is a volume growth of 22-25%, which means there is going to be 21-22 taka volume growth in tractors at the industry level, 20-22 taka in cars, 20-22 taka in auto two wheelers also, so I think a wave of growth has come in the Indian economy, if we look back at the great growth, it is 17% which is very strong, sign inflation is also around 3-4%.
So it looks like this year the normal GDP growth will be 11-12% and earnings growth which is core for us. It seems to surprise the analyst for the first time. Meaning, they must have said, suppose 12%, then it will come to 15-16%. If they say 15%, then it will come to 17-18%. This will be the first year when they will get an upside surprise.
And so I feel that this year is a surprise, an earnings surprise. And the attitude of FIs should also change a bit. No one has any control over that, but if their attitude changes, if, say, they stop selling instead of buying, then also the market can surprise on the upside. I feel like yes, sir, you have given me so much material in the first answer, I can do a two-hour show on it because you have mentioned so many topics, so I will pick from them only.
Now, okay, first of all, what you talked about, we went from 26,000 to 22, okay, so much FI selling, so negative, after all this, if such negatives had come in the previous market, then we would have reached 15,000. So, one thing is now clear that domestic is not going anywhere, it is supporting and FII If I add this angle angle in it.
If this is a little bit of the Korean market or the rest of the markets where there is some pressure now, can some of that money come back to India? They have many options as to how the FI will behave. But you interact a lot. So we interact but brother, we interact with one person. Those poor guys are crying.
His portfolio has increased by one third. It's half over. Not performed and other markets have very good performance. So their pains and sufferings are very different. Isn't it ? So, India is not even a priority for them. Look at India's allocation, the 20% allocation of MSI in emerging markets has reduced to 11.
Even in 11, four-five people say that 4-5% is underweight, which means now India has reduced to 6-7% allocation in emerging markets. Okay, which means it does not matter. Actually, India has become irrelevant in overall larger portfolios, which is very unfortunate, but due to the sustained selling that has happened in the last three-two-three years, such a situation has arisen, but the story of India is a secular story.
His story is a compounding story. Whatever happened in the last 10-20 years will happen in the next 10-20 years also. And the growth pickup that has happened this year will bring people back again. Arsh Bhai, right now it means can we afford to ignore India. Ok. I feel that the India story is so compulsive that people will definitely buy domestic products.
At some point in time they will look back and they will come. But when they come to buy, they will not get the price. So you see what happens, they sell all this but their buying is also very stormy, when they feel like it, they don't buy or sell even a billion in a day, it means that there is a lot of allocation, so they have to invest the money and they have to invest it in a hurry, so that thing is that if we see sustainable earning, I think this is where the policy makers who are managing the economy in Delhi, they should understand that they do not have control over what they will do, but what we do is that our economy is growing at 7.5%-8%.
Which is fantastic. So whatever the reason for that growth, whether it is due to credit growth or good supply side management, they have a good understanding of it. I don't understand that much. But keeping this 7 and a half 8% growth with 34% inflation even if inflation is even higher than 4 to 5% I think we should not allow the growth to slow down.
The day the growth slows down, that mystery will also run away from here. Yes, you have talked about earnings growth four times and now you are saying that the growth is close to 17%. There is a credit growth of 17% and you are saying that this time the earnings growth will surprise positively as compared to all the estimates, so this credit growth, earnings growth and because you talked about consumption, talked about automobile numbers.
If we add all these, then the two biggest pillars of our market normally remain consumption and financial services. Will he lead the market? In C Auto Consumption, you are looking at the numbers for automotive. is a high frequency number. You just got your number a week ago, everyone's number, right?
So this momentum is full on. Well, whatever you have done with your GST card, it is absolutely brilliant, from 28 to 18, see, your GST collection has also increased by 14 taka this month. So, it means that now the base effect and the rate cut have also been recovered and the government's revenues are looking very good.
So what is this? Now the income growth will be 11-12%, so your tax collection will also be very good. So, you have to accept the inflation that if you grow at more than 7-8% then inflation does not increase. Okay, that's the only fear that remains. So if inflation is 3-4% then I think we can go on. Now we will have to see how long it can last.
But I think now monsoon has also picked up. All the things that were all four or five things. Well, after this, do n't forget that there is a global capex boom. C There is one big tailwind that is the capex boom for the power for defense for AI means there is a capex boom of all kinds. So, there is so much capital goods in the companies, so the consumption is on one side which is domestic.
But the demand for capital goods is both domestic and global. So if we look at it this way, there are many forces due to which your economy can grow at about, may be even it may cross 8% because there are certain forces like your export demand, that demand is there in the power sector, in the power sector, I mean everywhere, because of AI and even before, they never invested in America etc., so the growth of these transmissions and all India is going on.
So, all your power equipment is in demand everywhere. Due to this, the demand for all the things like power equipment, made up of metals and everything castings and all, is also increasing. So, with such a good 8% demand, you will see a capex boom in everything. See, every single company should not make this announcement.
They complain that there is no private capex. So when will private capex come? When demand will exceed the supply. So you do that capex to build up the supply. See, all the companies like Hero MotoCorp, TVS, Telco, Maruti have announced new plants. Everyone announced it, everything worth Rs 55-7000 crore was announced.
So as this phase picks up in the economy you are seeing even smaller and larger investments which are not known for capex. Even they will announce capex. So I think a sustained 7.5%-8% growth from here is the key to really attracting domestic as well as foreign attention. What it will do is mean that your earnings will increase.
Now come to our subject, it is very narrow, so my earnings are 1150, right now the EPS is 1150, 1157 of 25-26, if the people from Money Control write something like this, you say Money Control, then it is written as 1157, all our analysts have different but 11 understand 1150, so if this time there is 157% growth, then you are looking at anywhere between 1250 to 1300, okay, if 27-28, if it increases again by 15%, then the EPS can come around 1450 to 1500, we can reach 1500, so I feel that within 2 years, if you give P multiple of 20-21, then 30 to 32 index, so now it means that it is getting seen, everything does not happen as per our wish, it is not going to go to 32000, it will go first 35000 then it will stop at 32, so this means now the more you delay, the bigger will be the launch of the rocket, absolutely good one thing since you talked about tax boss and you said that we do n't know what will we do but we can do something.
The government took a small step and a lot of money came in by exempting taxes from bonds. Ok? And its outflow of sentiment impact equity also stopped perhaps. Should a little work be done on this as well, for a short period of time, at least for 2 years, to revive the capital market? If a little work is done on capital gains tax, it will be less.
I mean, one of their main demands, I believe, is that you should do dollar to dollar. Because he brought dollars. So depreciation happens, so this is a permanent problem. Depreciation is when you invest capital only on the dollars you brought in, meaning if you have brought in $1 billion, then you are bringing back $1 billion.
So what you mean right now is that the rupee has depreciated so much that actually they are incurring a loss in dollars but they are getting capital gains in rupees. So on the contrary, they are incurring a loss and on top of that they are paying tax, so that is I think very serious. And in that case, forgiveness should be given immediately.
Okay, so this type of hearing will be done in a dynamic way. So, look at the rest, look at each type. When they came, there was tax even then, it is not that the tax was changed later. Yes, when they invested in, there was tax, so later in the budget of 90, tax is one thing, that means it makes a difference in your overall calculation and actually its impact will definitely be positive, but it is not that people are not coming only because of tax.
Their reasons are different. Firstly, the economy here, the Indian economy, had slowed down. Secondly, there is a lot of money being made in AI, in a huge way. too much. Well, our valuation level had also become a little bit premium because of sustainable domestic buying. They were in 10, 12, 15 KP and we were in 22, 23, 24.
So we're now at 21 and next year it looks like next year's number comes out so you'll be around 18. He has come to 20. So now that premium is over. So now we are equal and now from here my sustainable earning growth will come. Absolutely. Look, my financials have improved. Tech has been beaten so much that his weight has reduced now.
What is happening now is that what was earlier 13-14% has become 7-8%. So even if it doesn't grow much. Meaning, there is still that question mark in tech as to how much it will grow. Ok? AI may not have much direct impact. But the growth is going to remain the same at 7-8%. So [sound of clearing throat] but because of the credit slowdown, your 35% banking finance which had slowed down is in full blast.
It's full blast right now. Well, let me come to what you said. You have seen so many bicycles. After this AI boom, our IT stocks have now reached the pre-Covid level. Ok ? So right now here as a sector, is it a value bet or a value trap in IT right now, I mean what is your view right now, no, I don't have clarity, I have been saying this for the last two years, I think I have been coming here and saying that it is headwinded, yes, so we will stay away, yes, I don't understand that sector right now, yes, tell me what to do in what I understand, but it has been beaten so much, I mean it has been beaten very badly, so I think it is a deep value now, it is clearly deep value, you see the contract of SCL Tech or TC CS or Infosys, they are like businesses as usual, you are getting renewals of one-and-a-half-two billion dollars.
So obviously means AI is not suddenly evaporated the market you know but what is it? AI is a huge technology meaning it is evolving very rapidly. So it will definitely have an impact but if you look at the GCC movement, it took about 25 years for software to become an export of 100 billion dollars. It was 200 million in 95.
To export software worth Rs 200 million to Rs 100 billion, I think we would have exported Rs 100 billion around 2015-2017. Ok? GCC 5 has been operational for more than seven to ten years and currently it will be 100 billion this year. And they are saying that at the speed at which it is going, it seems that by 20031 32 it could be close to 200 million.
So the combined job creation that is happening here, understand that there are 3-4 million, there will be 5 million in software, so here 28 million have already been created, where in GCC, well in GCC the payments are better because you are directly working for the clients, we are intermediaries here like Infosys, TCS, there we are working directly for the clients only, so this boom at a country level is as big, okay okay boom is on actually a new opportunity at a country level, yes yes yes the soft care through employment that just today see, read in the paper, in the first half there has been leasing of 45 million in India, out of which 50% is for GCC, so you can understand how much it will be for the whole year, 90 million in my opinion, it will be the largest commercial leasing in the world, so see how this boom is happening, see how it impacts the real economy, if you give a job of 100 square feet to someone in GCC If we want a house of 1000 square feet, then Google will build 100 square feet, but who will build a house of 1000 square feet, all the real estate people will build it and everything is required in it, iron, wood, cement, tiles, there is a complete trickle down effect and this is not like this, it is once for six months, it is permanent, the job you get, I hope it is for five years, 10 years, 15 years, so this push in the economy is real and because of that the demand for everything increases, I talk to many people, I meet someone or the other every day, now many people's businesses which were stagnant for two-three years, they are saying they are saying revival, we, we, Ram Sir, a very big moment is about to come for the market or I mean it has already come, NSC's IPO will come, okay, a sort of monopoly business in which many people have been waiting for a long time.
You too had invested in NSC at a very early stage. When a business like this comes and gets listed, what does it mean for the market and what does it mean for the entire ecosystem? One thing is that look, you have NSC which is of course the leader of the capital market and it means it is globally the most important, I think there is no such machine as NSC in the entire world.
Absolutely, the number of transactions and the efficiency with which they process them, defect free, I think there is no such machine in the world, I mean all this means worldwide, this one of the tech innovation means place, this is so unique, secondly, right now we cannot say monopoly, right now there is duopoly, BS is also there along with it, but the way they have developed the market, I have been a member of NSC since day one, I have seen from 94, from where they have reached, and as this C, what is special in it, the rise of capital market, the capital market was nothing, I mean you understand, four years ago, the market cap of BSE was also 8000 crores or even less than that, today there is a market cap of one lakh and a half lakh crores, so there are five companies in this entire industry whose market cap is more than 1 lakh crores, your NSC will be BSE, HDFC Mutual Fund will be SBI and your ICICI Mutual Fund, five, one broker also means one and a quarter lakh crores Has a market cap of.
So, there are five or six such entities whose assets are above Rs 1 lakh crore. How many industries are there here, I mean, there are so many companies, tell me, it means the market cap will directly reach Rs 20 lakh crore, so I think this is the rise of the capital market. This is the rise of financialization.
And this is just the beginning. This means 2000, which means it has been a journey of 5 years. Do you have any idea what will happen in the next 20 or 25 years? No, who would have a better idea than you? Well, Ramdev ji, there is another space where you were quite bullish and made a lot of money, New Age, you were an early investor in Zeeptoto also.
Their IPO is also coming now. Do you still feel that there will be big money to be made in this space? Look, Anuj, please take care of this. Categories New categories are created occasionally. It does n't happen every day. Like I saw when the new category was created? When the first privatization of banks took place in 94.
Then HDFC was formed. Yes. Ok. The entire HDFC was available for Rs 800 crore. 40 crores was a lot. There was equity of Rs 200 crore. There was tremendous liquidity in Rs 8000 crore. Meaning you could buy 10 lakh shares in half 10 minutes without differentiating the price. This was the situation. Ok?
From there that bank became worth 12 lakh 15 lakh crores in 25 years nonstop so that was a category creation private sector banks led by HDFC that was one in 2002, in 3 yours became B Airtel means when we did not have a phone, MTNL had everything, nothing, there were 40 million total phones, one incoming call used to cost ₹16 so that is one thing cost but there was no connectivity, the entire country was disconnected country, unconnected country yes there your category was formed in which month on month there was 78% growth which when we made money in India, okay when it had come down even from the IPO.
Yes, that price had become half. The IPO was held at ₹47. The price had reached 18. So we bought it for 23. That share which was priced at ₹23 is priced at ₹2300 today. The feeling is after a one one split. 18 What is the price? Indian 180 19 is close. So 19 3800 means the price is 4000. That share of Rs 2300.
Ok? Yes. So, the creation of this type of category takes some time but is quite big. So this Quick Commerce for you is a very big category creation. I think this category is definitely in loss today. Yes, but this category that will be formed, I think it will be like a 30, 40, 50 lakh crore category in the next 10 years.
Okay, in 10 years, this 30, 35, 40 lakh crore will definitely change the retailing, meaning the way groceries are bought in your home will change completely. It is not that this corner shop is going anywhere, but someone says that it will become 50:50, the corner shop will continue and all the other quick commerce that will come and whatever other formats will come, specialized ones, then delivery at home will be the way to buy the groceries.
It is said that the grocery market is worth 600 billion right now, what we do mainly through general trade, GT, will definitely double in the next 10 years. That's right. Isn't it ? So when this will become a category of 1 trillion 1.2 trillion i.e. 100 lakh crore. 50% of that will be quick commerce.
So it will be made worth Rs 40-50 lakh crore. How much is it now? Worth Rs 1 lakh crore. So a lot, but as I told you earlier, do you know what will happen? When will it happen? When will it happen? How it will happen? Yes. Well, what's in it? Because they are building the category there are losses. is the cost of equation.
They do not have any stores. So whatever customer you bring, there is a cost of equation for it. It is an accounting matter that you have to write everything in PNL only. Whatever the cost is. Right now, if we have a turnover of Rs 500 today, will we be able to achieve Rs 500 turnover without opening a shop ?
There will be cost of acquiring customers. It costs you money for that. So it must have cost them Rs 101000 crore. So this loss does not look good. It is a very painful thing to see for public investors. Now how long will this continue, it means it is necessary that they will make money. The entire category will make money.
Who is Who Loses, that time will tell. But it will become a very big category. Please take care of this. 25-30 lakh crores seems certain to me. In the next 10-12 years. So from here also it can keep growing at 40-50% for many years to come. May be decades and two. Now the question is who will win this?
Yes, first we invested in Swiggy, but we did not make any money in Swiggy either. Whatever price is listed at, that price is the price, understand that you will not make any money. Right now there is ZPTO, even in that no money has been made. No money was made. When the list is released, we will know what happens.
We will see then. Then we will see what happens. But I am saying the same thing. Do we know what will happen? No, you made good money in Itnal, but you made good money in Itnal. In that, money was made two or four times, back and forth, and what is it, winner or not, winner takes it all, like in this, right now there is telecom, now Jio has 50 taka, Bharti has 50 taka, both are enjoying, both are earning 50-50 lakhs, so this will also be made like this and this is real FMCG, in this it is asset light, very asset light, telecom is very asset light, right now here and there, even now Jio's RO is not more than 15 14 15%, what is it here, there is no capital asset, that is, by balance sheet it is, I mean balance sheet is absolutely light.
So the day the profit comes, the ROE will be 100-150%. So this is a 100 PE business. Even if we earn Rs 1000 crore, now let's assume Blinket has a turnover of Rs 1 lakh crore and earns 2% net margin. It is 2000 crores. So 2000 crore 100 PK becomes minimum 2 lakh crore. Such valuations will be made. So this category is very interesting.
Just wait and see, you will know the real thing when it gets listed. What can I say before that? Okay Ram Sir, two questions. One is a sector where you feel that the consensus is very bullish but you are a little negative about it. There is such a sector, such a theme, AI, right? AI AI Okay, okay. Because I don't understand.
There is also a little thing that I don't understand. I stay away from things that I don't understand. So what is it now? AI C technology is very exciting. I use it a lot. Yes, but it is very difficult to understand how the money will be made and who will make the money. Okay, and any theme that no one is paying attention to right now but you feel like it's time to accumulate.
Is there any such selective thing, this is what I am telling you, search for any company from these, be it insurance or banking, there are many interesting stocks in banking. Ok? There are many interesting stocks. I don't want to say the name but what happened in ICICI Banking ? Because of sustained FI selling and slow down in the HDFC C category leader, whenever its valuation gets crunched, the entire sector gets crunched.
Yes, if you assume that the real estate prices in South Bombay also fall, the real estate of the entire country will fall, so if that is the case then what is this, this was our South Bombay, yes Malabar Rail was at its peak, now you have reduced its price to 12-13, you have reduced it to 14, so how much premium will you charge for the rest, friend, you are right, so for that only, now the numbers that have come for this quarter, it is clearly understood from this that their days of trouble are over, now they are growing at 14-15% because credit is growing at 17, yes and those issues of corporate governance etc.
are also over, everything is behind, so now what is the matter that now their transactions, I think, have ended by a lot of 80-90% and now they are growing at at least the industry growth rate, so what will happen from that, if you see, your FI holding was 54%, at the peak they sold 12%, 12% of 12 I mean, HDFC Bank has Rs 1 lakh crore each, now I don't know what they will do from here, I don't think they will sell it at this price, but it is still on 42-43%, which is correct.
So this is the reason of this type, what happened to the entire industry, I mean, but credit of Rs 17 lakh goes, you are able to get the stocks at 12-13 PE, I don't understand it. It is a tremendous opportunity. Come on Ramdev ji, there is shortage of time because we can do only half an hour's show.
We can make the podcast longer. Well, one last question for you, normally whenever I talk to you, you say that we just have to see how much downside there is because as you said, the upside can also go up to 35,000 or 36,000. You feel that the war bond that has been created right now should not be broken.
Right now I don't know, some new program will have to be done for that because see, I am more confident about the earnings, yes and I feel that analysts understand that we could be closer to 1500 in 28, if there is 15-17% credit growth, then I tell you 27-28 with surprises, yes, because right now see, in 27-26-27, I mean, the first quarter is in $ oil, so the first quarter will be a little if in terms of margin, the top line will be great but the margin will be a little squeezed.
But this oil which was priced at 60-70 has now become $0. It is not stopping here right now. Maybe It Can Fall Very Sharply. So how is this made, that is, how does the entire economy run from here. I am quite optimistic that this year will be very good. Then see how inflation plays out. Okay, Ridham Desai's Bolt case target is 1 lakh for Sensex.
Then what will be Ramdev Agarwal's bolt case target? Hey, my target is five to six years. It remains double every time. As told, your Nifty 500 will be confirmed in 5 to 6 years. And you will double this also. Let's double it. Ram Sir, thank you very much for joining us today. It was nice talking to you as always, thank you so much.
Well, that's all for today in the Market Guru series. Stay connected with CBC Awaaz.
Comments 0