저자: RamdeoAgrawal · 외국인
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결론: 지정학 완화와 선거 결과에 따라 시장 방향이 갈리며, 현재는 소형·중형주 자금 유출이 지속되는 상황이다. 지정학·선거: 긴장 완화 발언이 나오고 있고, 집권당 유리 해석이 있다. 다만 선거 결과 확률이 60~65% 수준이라 확실해질 때까지 시장이 명확한 방향을 잡기 어렵다고 본다. 지수 11,000 돌파는 낙관하지 않는다. 중소형주: 중형주가 최근 상대 강세를 보이나, 국내 자금이 중소형 펀드·PMS로 몰리며 그 자금 흐름이 부정적으로 변하고 있다. 따라서 중소형 전반에 우호적 시기는 아니며, 과도하게 낙폭이 커진 개별 기업만 반등 가능성이 있다. 가치와 성장: 품질·성장·합리적 가격을 동시에 충족하는 종목 찾기가 어렵다고 본다. 고평가 우량주를 비싸게 사면 장기 저수익이 될 수 있다는 버핏 견해를 인용한다. 자동차·금융(모틸랄 보유 종목): 자사 포트폴리오에서 자동차주(마루티 등)와 민간은행 비중이 크다. 자동차는 추가 하락 시 더 매수할 의향이 있다고 밝혔다. NBFC·자동차·주택금융은 신용 흐름 막힘으로 당분간 회복이 제한적이라고 본다. 정유(오일마케팅): 독점적 구조와 안정적 마진을 근거로 보유 의사를 유지한다. 최근 유가 상승 시 재고이익 기대로 급등한 점을 언급하며 시장 심리 변화가 빠르다고 지적한다. IT: 인도 IT(인포시스, TCS)는 장기 긍정적이며 현금흐름과 ROE가 우수해 여전히 선호하나, 주주환원 확대 필요성을 주문한다. 리스크: 선거 불확실성, 신용 경색, 중소형 자금 유출, 지정학적 긴장 재발.
다듬은 글
well as promised ramdev Agarwal co-founder of mual Securities is with us to discuss so many issues that are plaguing investors minds and uh the markets R good morning thank you very much for joining us in the studio well uh let me start with the positives there seems to be a lot of De deescalation calls from across the world and of course the two countries are also made statements that they will not escalate the tension uh plus there is a positivity in the sense many people have interpreted as Anu was saying the SAT Market has interpreted that this strengthens the chances of the ruling party so do you feel positive now positive enough to expect the index will go above 11,000 I mean uh it it I mean obviously no I mean it doesn't feel that kind of thing but uh I mean right now the biggest event apart from what we are going through geopolitical the next big event is election election so uh so both sides things are changing here whatever actions you are seeing that is having direct impact on the possibility of polarized voting one way or other I mean right now it looks as if you know the current government will come with a bigger majority and all that's a wish of lot of people particularly people who come here those wishes so but then voters are not voters don't come to the mass voters don't come to don't come to the studio Okay so uh what finally will happen that time will have a huge impact and Market is uh you know because it's still 60 70 days so Market is kind of a very calibrated in terms of taking that huge stance one way other there is a good probability that uh the outcome might be Fable but uh it is not 100% say might be 60% 65% so as the time comes closer and this probability starts going higher that okay 70% 75% and the outcome is looking more certain then Market will uh take that final stance fair enough good morning but uh you know the price action sometimes speaks a lot we saw the market was very narrow in January that continued in February uh over the last 2 weeks the midcaps have started to outperform good quality stocks are finding bottom they're seeing buying some part of that was short covering but there's some genuine delivery based buying which is happening as well in that are you getting a sense that the worst for the broader market May priced in especially considering we had a very rough last year as well some stocks for sure I mean wherever uh uh sell off happen unnaturally say like Z you know I mean those kind of stocks where the company itself has is absolutely you know fine and there was something external about the stock PL and those kind of things so that the the whole thing recovered very quickly so those kind of uh things are happening politically in some counters but uh one of the my understanding or what I have seen in last one and half two years in while managing mutual fund is that when the domestic money comes it comes in very uh distributed midcap small cap funds and uh and lot of pmss you know small pmss and that money actually chases a lot of mid and small cap companies M now that that flow is definitely negative and it is becoming worse by the day okay so so that till that reverses I don't think generalized uh good time for uh mid and small yeah but individually a company if something is hammered down to you know much more naturally level then of course it can come up on its own fundamental absolutely even stocks like Dish TV and even Z entertainment they the stocks of the month kind of Rise 60% up on Z on Dish entertainment uh Dish TV and Z entertainment in the month of February uh R good morning so uh this however would be a great time for uh you know fund managers and people like yourselves like who love looking at stocks and like to buy things at good value um so the question is now value but with some idea of growth for instance you know a stock like aand people were always hesitant it was beaten down to pulp yet buyers weren't coming in because there was a question mark on growth a stock like page Industries I mean from 70 times to now I think almost 50 times but still question marks on growth so value but with growth visibility where do you see this in the market so you know the running theme all across is buy growth at reasonable price mhm we say quality and growth at reasonable price which becomes even more difficult to find you know growth at uh grow at reasonable prices you can say you can compromise on quality and but I'll buy growth but I'll pay reasonable price but when I say I want top quality and growth and reasonable price so so then you're pushing your luck too hard and uh you do that all the time qgp the issue is that you tend to underperform because what Buffett said in this letter that a great uh company if you pay too high a price it becomes a very very bad investment or subnormal investment for prolong period finally the economics of the business and economics of investment will converge but who has the that much time you know three four years of return holiday or sub subnormal return and then you make uh whatever High returns you but are you getting enough ideas in the three filters that you just mentioned these are tough filters you have to have quality value and and and growth yeah so life is easier because no net net flow so now we have to only optimize what money we have so to that extent it becomes much better you know every day if you have 100 CR coming then uh you have to not only buy the same stock or you have to find new ideas today if the money flow is net net zero or negative your job is okay because Market is also slowly sinking you know for a lot of stocks so you you know where isly you want to put so where would your churn be then I mean you've been uh a person with who had placed a lot of bets on Aisha placed a lot of bets on maruti these have been your Maris stocks uh would you want to churn because that's where we saw contraction slow down you know I mean uh we should have churned it at the top not at the bottom so see there are two issues I mean one is the franchise and second is the growth yes okay so franchise is intact Monopoly of both the companies on their own segments are intact so profitability of the business is not in but no business goes in a straight line at 40% compounded or 30% compounded so every business after 2 or 3 years of growth it takes a bre but Market doesn't know how long this breathing is going to continue is it going to be one year is it going to be 2 quarters or is it going to be forever that is your call as an investor whether you want to sit there or move on okay I'm the perhaps slightly tough one for you to answer because you are in same business uh in nbfcs you know the likes of M for examp of course you won't talk about that stock but you know e wise if we saw great wealth creation and now we've seen Fair bit of price damage your thoughts on on what's Happening Here of course the likes of baj Finance have bounced back very sharply but uh you know sham transport as well has bounced back but overall how do you look at this space now see I can talk about my company to some extent because we have designed our company in particular way you know I mean every company is designed very differently though you can Club it IFL wise M also this three capital Market companies and if you do the chart I mean they literally go in the same direction but these two are all the three all the companies actually every company is very different and it depends on the design of the company so we can talk a little bit more about M because that's where I sit and kind of do things so uh here see you have it is a cyclical company you cannot undermine cyclicality of the underlying business say like we have a very large portion of almost 50 60% depending on the time you have the broking business so business is very Market dependent how what's happening in the marketplace then you have the AMC which is now much newer but that is about 20 30% of the profit so that is very stable very high quality but Brooking remains underlying fluctuating then we tried to build uh Aspire which is a which was a mistake no not mistake see it takes time to build you guys are in hurry or but see in broking I started in ' 87 till 90 I didn't know whether I exist or not it took 5 years for us to wait for the first Bull Run when we took the AMC license 2008 2014 2016 we broke even it took 10 years uh 8 N9 years to break even so everything takes that learning period so we are we are paying our tution see when you are building large business your tuition fee is also large so we are paying that we are going through that process we have I think I would say 60 70% of learning is done yet that uh 1/3 is still left we are coming on top of it I'm quite sure that next year as we have projected it will be far better than what it was in last year but suddenly you'll not become blue chip in that particular segment you know I agree since you're talking you willing to talk about your company your thoughts on this recent SEI order as well Ram so that I don't want to talk because uh sensitive and it makes me sad to see the order but I mean whenever you meet M or we've decided that Mi talk because actually have not followed this uh in person so it remains well communicated if one person talks about it sure but doesn't make me happy so let's talk about some of some of the things that you've really closely followed um you know big Investments I I don't know if positions uh on the oil marketing space for you continue to be where they were because uh what we saw play out last week was an interesting dichotomy when crude was moving to 67 all these stocks were actually rallying because people said no let's focus on inventory gains and now they have pricing freedom I mean so the market sentiment also changes very quickly on a dime suddenly the worry was not there about about the pump prices uh your own thoughts on this space and whether you are still comfortable holding those kind of positions yeah yeah see our see you buy stocks based on certain your own assumption or dream or uh what Vision you have about the stock so the thing was that after so many one is that it's a very large business the largest business of India second it is it is monopolistic these three companies they literally Monopoly on 90 92% share on the other thing and it's a 24x7 365 days business is the ultimate detail if if you could talk it so and I mean making 2% profit on their sales is not too much to ask for from crud to 1 liter in matura at the middle of the night you got to make 2 3% net profit so and government said you can make that reasonable amount of profit so we were saying that the reasonable amount of profit uh is possible and government ear in their policy between 2003 and 2013 now they will never commit that mistake and hence we have a uh reason to buy a 56p multiple dime good business 25 30% payout so 5 6 7% D yeld and 5 6% the thing 6 7% 8% volume growth which has been the trend but uh I mean all kinds of conduct by the government in terms of buying selling and hammering at any price I mean you the stock is H from LC or so I think those things distorted the and that one rupee thing I mean government was the last thing in the so they played in the hand of speculators so this entire 12 months 18 months has been quite trying to hold the stock and suffer I mean I think uh our schemes are sufferred maximum because of yes having a good chunk of that in the portfolio so we must have lost 4 5% of the performance because of that but that's the kind of price you pay for a very focused allocation and your conviction on the focused allocation you know I wanted to ask you about that your allocations largely have been the auto stocks your AA marui you have uh a little bit of uh TCS infosis and then you have private Banks largely will you move out of this now why should we move out no no I'm asking you is there a fourth sector that you looking no no see whenever ideas come I'm not telling you I'm asking yeah no no just say like software looked at some point of time nice we included infosis TCS again like cement I don't know what whether you would look at something it's not looking that attractive to us but we are open to see it's a public money and we are our we are only uh what you call determinations to make money for them okay wherever we think uh time has come for us to jump in and the prospects are not discounted by the market we'll definitely jump in Autos you remain as convinced as ever despite all this Gloom and tomb talk as if people will not buy bikes and cars now in the country no Let It Come little more down we'll buy some more okay you know one more question uh this whole It theme infosis and TCS you played both the stocks of course uh in between there's a beautiful race uh now for large cap it in particular how how do you think things are looking and TCS has corrected quite a bit from its highs though moving up once again yeah I mean we remain positive I mean the sector is see this is the India's best possible industry I mean uh the opportunity for uh Indians in a full full employment situation for the uh US economy and the uh the kind of things we can do the size of the contracts we can take and the the competency TCS and enoses have in the world uh welcome order we think that and they're not hugely expensive uh companies they have a huge free cash flow the return on Equity looks to be 25 30% because they have the large amount of Treasury so in fact my request is that they should become far more aggressive in payouts so that uh balance sheet becomes linear and uh they can buy back their shares and uh so those kind of things are possible so they will they will create value if the management is strong enough to grow and snap snatch market share from the global peers a final word on the debt markets as you see them that's where the worry came uh came from but markets are usually I mean I would assume Equity markets uh have you know a very close relation with the debt markets and they know the problem is it discounted or is it still worrying that uh that might be the spot where a downfall may come see you don't have to have downfall I mean what happens is that uh uh things don't move up you know because uh yeah inflows are not coming one is that I don't understand debt Market but no economy can function well unless your credit markets function very smoothly so we have uh very you know like government is trying very hard they removed so many Banks from the PCA yes uh they're trying to help nbfcs but the way it was functioning say 6 months back was there was a segment of PSU Banks they're playing their own role maintenance or whatever but not going so much then you had a private sector Banks which were taking bulk of the growth on their side and it was shared with nbfcs now this third leg is kind of a stumbling so what do we do with that so one is to repair that particular segment itself or it finds a newer way of doing it yes uh say they buy new they find new owners and then recap and move on in life but right now it looks like they're limping okay or uh you you you can't get growth from there so the new P Banks which are coming out of PCA at some point of time credit flow will start from them and they'll make up for what deficiency is here but right now nbfcs your uh auto automotive companies even the builders uh uh hfcs and all see if you get a if you want to buy a home of a CR uh 30 L he has given to the Builder but 70 LHS has to come from the mortgage compan and that check is sanction is there but check is not coming through so how do you you know yeah just just one one last question you know because uh you have created some 100 Baggers like of course from the time they were unlisted you the Au name comes to mind RB bank is something that you have backed what's the next big opportunity no no I going see you just keep watching I mean as the market goes down more and more opportunities will come see actually the big bullish thing is that as the market goes down we should become fmer bullish because stocks in four years time or 5 years time will go where it has to go but if my purchase price can be 30 40 50% cheaper uh that much more bagging can happen so uh I mean the weak Market doesn't scare us at least it doesn't scare me uh you know but smooth functioning of businesses is most important so if there is any obstruction to smooth functioning of business and that for prolong period that kind of you know clouds the mind okay well we will have to see let us hope that the nbfc problem is smoothing out but uh that's a question still unanswered thank you very much Andre it's always a pleasure having you with us in the studio we wrap up on Bazar trading ideas coming up for you on chnos
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