저자: 미상 · 외국인
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엔비디아 10대1 액면분할 발표를 계기로 실적 급성장과 고평가 문제를 분석. 최근 1년 주가 132%, 5년 3,000% 상승, 매출 27B→61B 이상으로 성장했으나 시가총액 2.78조 달러, 매출 대비 45배로 고평가 우려. 액면분할은 기업 가치를 바꾸지 않는다고 강조. 영상 자체는 엔비디아 가격 방향에 대해 명확한 1~3개월 예측을 하지 않고, 자체 DCF 가정(매출성장 10~30%, 이익률 30~50%, PE 20~30)상 적정가 범위 230~2,400달러(중간 785달러)를 제시하며 '과평가로 보인다'는 입장.
다듬은 글
Nvidia one of the greatest companies of all time just s outed a 10 for one stock split and there are four super important things you need to know about this before you go out there buying Nvidia stock because of the stock split there are so many important things to understand about stock splits before you make any decision based on that alone look at this thing in here to date it's up 132% in the last year 178 % 6 months 133% 5 years 3,000% in The Last 5 Years look at this growth it's just insane guys and not only that their revenue has skyrocketed let's go look at their revenue by by by first off by year so we're going to sit here and look at this going back to 2015 4.7 five7 9.7 11.7 10.9 16.7 27 2 7 $61 billion in the last year not including last quarter they just announced earnings for for April they did $26 billion in Revenue just in the quarter remember just in that quarter they did in all of 2023 previous year ending 2023 they did 27 billion the revenue has absolutely skyrocketed for this company and that's something unique to companies that have absolutely Skyrocket in stock price very quickly like this we don't see this kind of Revenue growth I'm reading articles about people saying this will probably never be seen in history again obviously you can't say that for sure but this AI rush and AI boom has been absolutely incredible and insane and it obviously shows right here the price to free cash flow is 103 The Five-Year number is 290 it shows how much this has grown look at this 5ye average free cash flow of 9.6 billion last year's free cash flow 27 billion it's absolutely skyrocketed return on invested Capital has skyrocketed every metric has done so well but remember just because a company is incredible doesn't mean any price is necessary for the for the company to do well just three or four months ago I was in Florida with a very wealthy friend of mine he was bragging about Nvidia and he he even said to me I have no idea what it even does I said you know what the revenue was last year he said no clue that's kind of concerning for me doesn't mean this Euphoria can't keep going it absolutely can it doesn't mean that their fundamentals can't keep getting better and better the question is are is this going to continue and have a permanent Plateau because remember a lot of companies can make these chips they might be slow slower than Nvidia has been to getting the market but at some point there will be more competition and you see here the gross profit margin 73% it used to be lows close to 60% and now it's actually up towards of 77% last quarter that's big- time growth to see gross margin go up that much let's go check out the eight pillars on this company guys shares outstanding is up a little bit I'm actually surprised it's not up more if I were Nvidia I'd be printing shares like crazy why because everybody loves the stock might as well get as much money you can out of people for that one I'd be printing money like crazy rather do that then take on debt print the money keep it in your balance sheet whenever you can obviously fiveyear PE and fiveyear price of free cash flow we've OB we already discussed it they're useless because their their numbers are so much better than they were in The Last 5 Years it's absolutely incredible what this company is doing but remember 60 billion in Revenue that's equal to what Intel did last year after falling 30% in Revenue I'm not trying to compare the two and say Intel is the same as Nvidia but just to keep in the idea of like you know how much this company is 45 times sales that's a big number guys Microsoft's at 13 time sales with the same kind of margin you know at some point there's a price that's too high for everything so let's see what analysts are saying for NVIDIA big growth guys they're expecting 2565 over the next year going to $45 next four years it's actually not as much as I would have thought I would have thought this would be much bigger jumps much bigger jumps but who knows that's earnings per share Revenue from $15 billion in the year ended March 2025 to 206 billion again big growth but not as much as expected for a company that's up 3,000% in the last five years the majority of which has come in the last two and a half years two years of it that's the big part of it because remember let's look at this chart let's go back to this chart the low in September of 2022 in October of 2022 was $108 this thing is up over 10x since October of 2022 that is 1.5 years ago one point maybe eight years ago it's up 10x in that time again can it keep going absolutely absolutely and this company has proven they're a great business the CEO and the company have announced that the big reason they wanted to do this was they wanted to make the stock more accessible to company employees as well as investors now look at Nvidia soaring high $1,115 per share on paper it is going to make the stock go down by 10 it's going to go if it was today it's going to go to $111 50 this does not make the stock cheaper the only thing that is happening is it's making the nominal price of a share a lot lower obviously with a company like this the fomo can be huge huge you have this fear of like oh my God this thing is going up I got to get on board it's a different kind of fear but it's similar in the sense of when a stock is falling you want out right they're both fears there you sit there and worry about is this company going to zero when it's falling am I missing on on gains when it's going up they're both very strong emotions we've all been there we've all been there now for me I don't worry about these things when I see massive run-ups very quickly that doesn't bother me missing out on them when I don't they're necessarily grounded in some sort of reality now that's not to sit there and say that Nvidia is not an incredibly profitable business it's worth a lot more money than I originally expected but who would have S seen the AI part who would have been able to sit there and predict that that would happen just because you get lucky on that one what I'm trying to teach here is a process and that process says that every investment is the present value of every future cash FL you receive the more you pay the less your return's going to be the less you pay the more your return is going to be so the question becomes how do you determine those Factor those future cash flows we don't know the future is unknown that's what makes investing in art and not a science that's what makes investing so difficult that's why we need margin of safety so what I'm encouraging you to do the fact that you're watching this video tells me that you're probably more of an investor and not a hype machine follower you want to find a process you want to figure out why is this happening does that mean you might miss out on some very big run-ups absolutely but it also means that you're the kind of person that says hey if a company's going to make x amount of dollars if I can pay a cheaper amount of money for that I'm going to do better in long periods of time absolutely and that's what I'm trying to teach here that's the process that you can apply to any investment you have in the future whether it's stocks real estate businesses whatever it is these processes work but the most important part of all this is the emotional ability to sit there and when you see a stock fall say I'm okay with this my thesis the same maybe I should buy more shares or when the stock is flying high you say you know what I think it's too much I got to bow out of this and you're going to be wrong on both levels but the point is to apply the same process over and over and be able to be in touch with your emotions and control your emotions and that's why we have this community that's why we have all these tools to enable you to be able to do that so if you want to get in better touch with your emotions be able to handle this more and more join our community the link below we have a great 7-Day trial check it out I guarantee it'll change the way in which you invest and it'll make you a better investor if you properly apply these attributes and these kind of ideas to the Investments you make when you want to buy a company what you need to look at is the market cap because if you want to own the entire company that's what the market cap would be and for a company like Nvidia it's $2.78 trillion okay let's pull up a company like birkshire Hathaway birkshire hathway I'm sure many of you know is is the most expensive and I put that in quote stock out there for $61,500 $61,500 when I was in high school the stock was at$ 34,000 and a kid who was interested in stocks I said yeah birkshire hathway is 34,000 he goes no it's not I said yes it is he back then you had to pull up the paper he looked at he's like oh my God you're right but here's the interesting part about burshire hathway look at the market cap 880 billion that is almost 70% lower than Nvidia yet the stock price is 600 times higher than Nvidia why it's just a matter of issuing shares the number of shares outstanding let's look at birkshire hathway their number of shares outstanding in our income statement is 1.45 million shares outstanding 1.45 million let's go to Nvidia Nvidia currently has 2.4 7 billion shares outstanding guess what's going to happen it's going to go to 24.7 billion after the stock split all they're doing is issuing more shares so let me give the example here let's say a company has 10 shares you own one of them you own 10% of the company if they do a stock split two for one they're doubling the number of shares but also issuing a share to every shareholder that's they double it so now there are 20 shares outstanding from 10 to 20 but now instead of one share sh you own two before You' owned one out of 10 shares that's 10% now you own two out of 20 shares that's also 10% your ownership structure your ownership percentage has not changed one iota so please don't fall for the Trap of thinking the company is cheaper the stock price is lower the company is not cheaper they do this in order to make more excitement for the company to get the stock going higher because more people can buy more shares and they feel like richer I've got 10 shares now instead of one it's no difference whatsoever and that is why Warren Buffett never did a stock split he sat there and said I want like-minded long-term investors and if you're willing to spend tens of thousands or hundreds of thousands of dollars to be a partner with me you probably have the right Outlook that I have now guys what is the right price to pay for NVIDIA well again I'm going to show you my stock analyzer assumptions and you do what you want with them or if you're part of our community you do your own assumptions that's what makes the software so great so I did 10 20 and 30% Revenue growth through the next 10 years just to let you know 20% Revenue growth is doubling every 3.5 years that means in 10 years it's going to double about three times 8X Revenue that makes their revenue go from 60 billion to $480 billion that's some big numbers there big numbers I took the profit margin 30 40 and 50% now you might sit there and stay with free cash flow last year if these numbers can stay true these might be low right but remember margins mean revert when more competition comes in margins decrease so yes they've been first to Market and their mark their margins have surged but I'm assume they're going to have better margins than the past but not quite as good as today you might agree with me you might not it's up to you pe I put 20 25 and 30 guys I think that's too high but I'm just showing this here to show the valuation and from my desired return guys this is where you put your margin of safety in I didn't put any margin of safety here I want to sit there and say if I just want to match the market my 9% return because the market does N9 or 10% but remember you need margin of safety when you buy individual companies because the future is unknown we're human and we make mistake and investing is in art not a science not only that though if you want to just match the market just buy a lowcost ETF so to buy an individual company you need a better return than that I hit the analyze button I got a low price of 230 high price of 2400 middle price of 785 I just think it's overvalued if you want to see the earnings reports from a video last week click this next link it'll take you there thank you very much for your time
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