저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
나스닥·필라델피아 반도체(SOX) 등 레버리지 ETF가 크게 하락한 상황에서, 이미 매도하지 못했다면 그냥 버티라고 조언. 단기적으로는 관세·경기침체 우려와 AI 과잉공급 우려(딥시크, 나델라 발언)로 추가 하락 가능성을 언급하나, 장기적으로 AI·반도체는 미중 패권 경쟁과 빅테크 설비투자 증가로 성장할 것으로 봄. 빅테크 영업이익·예상 실적은 계속 증가 중이라 하락은 단기 조정이라고 주장. 60~70%는 나스닥·TQQQ 등, 30%는 TLT·SCHD 등 방어주로 포트폴리오 구성 권유. 가격이 크게 빠졌으니 바닥을 찾을 때라고 언급.
다듬은 글
Today, stocks like the Nasdaq, Philadelphia Semiconductor, and SOX ETFs have been holding for a long time and have been declining significantly. So, I would like to discuss how best to respond to this situation. Looking at Nvidia's stock price recently—and this year alone—we see a 14% drop, Microsoft -7.8%, Apple -5.8%, Amazon -7%, Tesla -32% this year, Google has fallen sharply, and Broadcom...
looking at these, we can see that Big Tech stocks have declined significantly. Those of you investing in triple leverage on Nasdaq, Philadelphia Semiconductor, and SOX must be quite flustered by the sharp decline in stock prices. So, today, I would like to share my thoughts on how best to respond to this plunging of stock prices.
First of all, if you had sold beforehand when the stock price plummeted, it wouldn't have mattered at all. However, you were unable to sell, and I assume you are watching this video right now. So, if you couldn't sell, what should you do? To start with the conclusion, if you haven't sold yet, there is nothing you can do.
Right now, you just have to endure it. I do n't think there is anything we can do. I think we just need to leave it alone. You might think it is irresponsible of me to say this, but if you ask what to do now that stock prices have already plummeted, I think the only way I can help is by offering ways to heal your mental state.
The stock price has already dropped; it would have been fine if you had sold before the crash, but this is an unavoidable situation right now. That is why I have been consistently emphasizing the importance of portfolio formation and investing in U.S.-made defensive stocks like TLT, SCHD, PNG, Johnson & Johnson, and McDonald's.
I keep stressing this point because once you have built a portfolio to prepare for a crash like this, if prices fall in other sectors—for example, TLT has risen significantly recently for long-term bonds, and the stock prices of SCHD, McDonald's, and Johnson & Johnson are rising—I want to suggest that, looking at these trends, it is better to form a portfolio like this before stock prices plummet in the future.
Right now, stock prices are crashing, and the Nasdaq... Well, from the perspective of those investing 100% in things like leverage, there may not be much they can do to respond. However, you are n't just going to invest for the short term, are you? I think this moment could be an important turning point regarding the formation of your long-term portfolio.
So, in conclusion, if you haven't sold right now, I think you should just leave it. This is because the stock market is volatile. In the short term, it is akin to a popularity contest. If there are many people willing to buy at a high price, the stock price goes up, but if not, it can fall. However, you can see that recently, stock prices for companies like N1, Philadelphia Semiconductor, and SOX are rising significantly.
Therefore, in the short term, stock prices are bound to fall again. But as I will explain later, I consider AI, semiconductors, and NASDAQ Big Tech to be generally related to national security issues. When looking at the US-China semiconductor and AI hegemony competition, they are bound to grow in the long term.
However, in the short term, recent issues like Deep Seek and Satya Nadella's concerns about AI oversupply... I consider it a bit of an obstacle. I believe that in the long term, it is bound to rise. I view the current drop as being due to short-term factors like tariffs and economic recession, but I believe that in the long run, it is bound to go up.
Therefore, I think we should just let the current drop in stock prices happen, and if you had sold in advance, it would n't matter at all. So, I will start this video by saying that stocks are inherently bumpy and, in the short term, are akin to an in-bet. First off, stock prices are falling significantly.
If you look at it, the SOX has recently broken below its moving average, and the Nasdaq, TEF, and QQQ are also breaking below their moving averages. In contrast, regarding SCDs—I do n't think this video is over 15 long— ETFs are actually showing signs of their moving averages rising. So, I want to reiterate the importance of portfolio formation here.
Since the beginning of the year, QQQ has dropped by -3%, Philadelphia Semiconductor by -6%, and SCHD N is up +2.2%, showing good defense. Also, this one pays high dividends, so the stock price is much higher. In terms of total return, I think we can confirm that it is rising significantly. If you look at the stock price trends over the past five years, the overall ups and downs are significant.
For instance, QQQ SOX rose sharply in the short term. Consequently, when the price fell in the short term—as you can see in 2012 and 2013—it dropped quite heavily. In the case of SCD, since there weren't many positive outcomes, it fell less when it declined, and you can view the situation as being similar now.
Therefore, stock prices naturally repeat this cycle of rising and falling. So, if you reduce your position to some extent when the price has risen significantly and buy back when it has dropped sharply, you can confirm from the past that the stock price consistently trends upward. Therefore, if you decide to invest 100% all-in—thinking you won't be stopped—you need to place great importance on timing.
This is especially crucial with triple leverage. However, for novice investors, targeting that timing is extremely difficult. I want to emphasize once again that if you simply plan to allocate about 60-70% of your portfolio to the Nasdaq and TEF, holding around 30% in long-term bonds like TLT and SCHD can be somewhat helpful when stock prices fall.
First of all, when looking at the recent decline in stock prices, we cannot ignore the Trump tariff issue. Also, regarding the US PMI index tracked by S&P Global, the services sector index has fallen significantly recently, and the Conference Board's leading economic indicators have also been continuously declining.
Consequently, issues regarding an economic recession have persisted. Furthermore, soft indices, such as consumer confidence, have also shown signs of a sharp decline recently. However, the important point is that, regarding these sentiment indices or tariff issues, the most critical factor is that the impact on Big Tech and semiconductors has not been that severe.
What I want to convey is that regarding tariff issues—such as the Canadian tariffs, the recent tariffs on timber, aluminum, and steel, the Mexican tariffs, and automobile tariffs—these are all... It is true that tariffs on China are significant, particularly on companies like Alibaba. However, I actually believe that tariffs on Big Tech will drop.
Since regulations on AI and semiconductors have existed since the Biden administration, the impact of these issues on other sectors is much greater than on NASDAQ non-tech or semiconductors. Recently, however, we can see that the stock prices of semiconductors and Big Tech are falling much more sharply.
I believe this is essentially a pretext; I think the stock prices are falling because they have risen too much. If you look at operating profit figures, they are constantly rising; there is no drop. Nvidia's operating profit is continuously increasing, Broadcom's is rising, Microsoft's is rising, Amazon's is rising, Meta's is rising, and Google's is rising.
I simply didn't bring up these examples because there are so many of them. I do not think they are being directly hit by these minor issues. However, because stock prices have risen so much in the short term recently, a correction is taking place. I believe that is the case. Also, if you look at the capital expenditures of Big Tech, you can see that they are continuously rising.
Although this includes last year's figures, investment in Big Tech has been steadily increasing over the years. Amazon, Microsoft, and Google are reportedly spending 466 trillion won on building meta-infrastructure. You can think of 466 trillion won as roughly equivalent to our country's annual budget.
Despite Amazon's stock price falling due to recent underperformance, they are stating that they will continue to invest in AI, and Google is doing the same. It is just that Google's earnings fell short of expectations; in fact, their earnings have been continuously rising. As you can see here, the stock price dropped simply because earnings expectations were so high, but earnings are still increasing.
Yet, despite this drop in stock price, they are talking about investing 7.5 billion won in capital expenditures. Looking at these factors alone, the argument is that earnings are irrelevant; AI investment is a national security issue; they cannot choose not to invest. They must invest because if they do not, they will inevitably fall further behind.
Considering these factors, the semiconductor industry is bound to grow. We can also confirm here that it does not exist. Furthermore, the US government recently announced Stargate, indicating that AI infrastructure projects are extremely important. The US government is continuously investing, and companies have no choice but to continue investing as well.
This is because the conflict over semiconductor supremacy between the US and China means that if investment in AI and semiconductors is delayed, it essentially amounts to giving up the top spot. Therefore, they have no choice but to invest. Additionally, the US is continuously expanding regulations on China's semiconductor industry.
Looking at various investments being made and China's continued control over key semiconductor markets, we can confirm once again that AI and semiconductors are the most critical core elements. Chinese Big Tech companies are continuously expanding their AI capital expenditures, and China is conducting antitrust investigations against US Big Tech companies.
They are doing this because it is obviously important. The US is also continuously strengthening sanctions on semiconductors and appears to be targeting companies like Huawei and SMIC. This phenomenon is occurring because it is self-evident that the semiconductor market will grow. It would be good to view this as something that is happening.
It is not as if earnings forecasts are falling. Nvidia's expected earnings are steadily rising, and Microsoft's expected earnings are also steadily increasing—going up 11%, 133%, 18%, and 13% continuously. Nvidia is much larger. Of course, Broadcom is rising, and Google is also rising. So, regarding the recent DeepSearch issue, Microsoft's Satya Nadella, concerns about the oversupply of AI, and Cells Force falling short of expectations—since stocks are inherently volatile in the short term and are akin to a popularity contest, there is nothing that can be done about it.
If you look at the past, there has always been a period of consolidation after a sharp rise in stock prices. Therefore, the recent decline in stock prices is inevitable. It would be fine if you had sold before the sharp drop, but what if you couldn't? You just have to leave it alone. So, from now on, you should build a portfolio to a certain extent, buy back when prices plummet and sell when they surge, thereby restoring the portfolio's balance.
I wanted to share in today's video that if you hold onto these stocks, your assets can steadily rise. I also want to emphasize that growth will continue because the U.S. is currently striving to secure hegemony over AI. Furthermore, looking at Ford PR, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Google, Metacritic, Nvidia, and Broadcom have all dropped to the 20s.
Given that stock prices have fallen significantly, I would like to suggest that now is the time to look for the bottom. I hope today's video was helpful to you. Thank you.
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