저자: The Bitcoin Revolution · 외국인
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what I'd like to talk about is what I call the 10 most dangerous things people say about stocks uh here's a good one if it's gone down this much already you can't go any lower everyone Polaroid went from 140 to about 107 people said if you ever get Polaroid under 100 you got to buy it there's back up the truck buy the stock tonight stock you get to 110 and rally you know fall 103 you go 112 105.
he said gets under 100 bipolar Polaroid broke 100 people started buying it and within nine months the stock was 18. I saw San Diego Avon products so just saying it's gone down this far how much lower I mean it's crazy but you know it can keep going in fact I tried this out Kaiser industries that was a new Analyst at Fidelity and we were about to buy the biggest block ever at Kaiser Industries the stock had gone from 29 to 17.
we're about to buy the largest block ever in the history of the American Stock Exchange we bought I know 10 or 15 million shares at 50 and three quarters they said my God the Stock's gone from 29 to 17 how much lower can it go so we bought this enormous block at 15 and three quarters so I called my mother and I said Mom I guess soccer Kaizen says it's 10 so about three months later said you ought to buy this it's gone from 29 to 10 how much lower can it go but went to nine and went to eight it went to seven it went to six it went to five it went to four so I had to go the funny had to say I was a little bit early on this at 15 and three quarters that uh but it uh we call this premature in the business the uh uh had a correction which you know is a euphemism for losing a lot of money rapidly so I said let's check this again the stocks for they own 45 of Kaiser Aluminum they own 59 of Kaiser steel they own 38 percent of Kai's cement they own all of Kaiser Electronics all of Kaiser broadcasting which had seven TV sets on Jeep they had Kaiser fiberglass said about Kaiser Santa gravel a bunch of other Kaisers and they had no debt no one's ever gone bankrupt without any debt I said it's not going to go to zero you know I was wrong when I said it can't go below 15.
so we hung on and within three years they gave out the shares and kind of Steel gave out the shares and kaises men gave out the shares and Kaiser steel and aluminum and they sold off all the businesses you got 55 a share but if you didn't know the story and the stock went from 15 to 11 and you're just saying how much lower can it go when it went to 918 you'd you would have gone so you can't just say you can't go any lower because I saw Taco Bell go from 14 to 1 in 1974 and they had no debt and making 60 cents a share there's a cool area to that that's even more dangerous if it's gone this high already how can it possibly go higher Philip Morris adjusted for splits sold for 12 cents in 1951.
then it goes to 60 cents in 1961. so it goes up five-fold you say yourself how much this never sold for that but just for splits to say how much higher can this go it's got a five-fold they missed the power Marlboro they missed the this 220 countries in the world they missed the cash flow of the company they missed everything this stock was a hundred bagger after going up 5-4 but people sold it just saying how much higher can it go can't go any higher they did the same at Home Depot they did the same with Toys R Us I did the same thing Toys R Us just saying it can't go any higher it's gone this much already that's very dangerous and don't don't use that one it's a very bad thing to do eventually they always come back here's another one that sucks RCA just about got back to us 1929 price was backed out by GE Manvel never came back International Harvester even with its name Chase and adjusted for split says and got all the way back yet Western Union double knits remember those wonderful things floppy disks they don't have to come back but they say eventually they always come back uh not true here's a great one it's three dollars how much can I lose let's say you buy your neighbor buys ten thousand dollars of a stock at 50.
it sucks now three and you put twenty five thousand dollars in at three if it goes to zero who loses the most a lot of people cannot answer this question I mean if you put a billion in a three you can lose a billion yeah I mean they blow Taps and lots of companies every year you know you just have they can go to zero It's always darkest before the dawn this business is terrible it's awful you ought to buy the group this is not a good way of making money 1979 there was 96 000 Freight cars to live in the United States two years later it fell to forty five thousand the lowest in 23 years it goes from 96 000 to 45 000.
people say business is awful it's horrible pathetic then it falls to 25 000 they say just load up there's about 15 opportunities to lose money there's about 15 suppliers of freight cars 15 manufacturers business was awful well last year we shipped seven thousand Freight cars the United States the business just continue to be miserable and uh I'll give you one that's even there's even greater opportunity to lose money on Energy Services industry this we all had a great opportunity to get our heads hand to us in 1982 there was 11 000 of those oil rigs drilling left you know drilling those holes all over Oklahoma and Texas and Colorado we used to have to recount every week and the recount fell from 11 000 in 82 with the 6083.
then follow a little bit lower 84. there's hundreds and hundreds of companies here companies have made the muds and did the down hole stuff the fracturing companies the well companies all the measurement companies the schlumberjays the bid companies lots of opportunities to lose money here there's equal opportunity opportunity here for serious losses and people said listen the business is terrible let's buy these groups well the recount was only a thousand three years ago so it went from eleven thousand to six thousand to five thousand then eight years later it's under a thousand the industry really started to turn about two years ago so just saying the business can't get worse I was lucky enough and you should have the medals in between start Fidelity I had the textile industry which is a great group to follow because you follow companies like JP Stevens who's founded in the 18th century and West Point Pepperell was found the 18th century Berlin Industries was one of the new companies was founded in 1904.
these people have been through recessions depressions were Wars they've seen it all there's a great expression of Texas industry It's always darkest before pitch black now that's a good one to remember because business is terrible it can get considerably terrible you're terrible to the power of six and uh he is a great rule somebody buys a stock at 10 and it falls to six and so if it gets back to 10 I'll sell now I think the math four and six I can handle this level math I think that's about a 66 return you ought to buy if you think it's going back to 10 yard buy the hell of a damn thing but they think if it gets back to 10 I'll sell now what you ought to do is never put down a round number of these I think the next 26 years to start going between five and nine and a quarter it'll never get to ten so maybe put nine and eight or eight three quarters but just saying the stock if it gets back what I paid for it this is a very important rule this is a very it's one of the key rules the stock doesn't know you own it you could be a miserable person you could have uh never helped anybody never done anything right had 67 spouses never done anything right if you owned Coca-Cola last 50 years it's gone up 300 fold you could be the greatest human in the world help Special Olympics help the mentally challenged help poor people help AIDS people if you're on Bethlehem Steel it's lower than it was 30 years ago it's not your fault don't take this personal you know but people treat stocks sometimes like their grandchildren or a puppy I mean they think they think the stock knows who you are you know it's you know it doesn't work that way I don't have to worry I own conservative stocks arm and Con Ed fell uh 80 then tripled uh Public Service Indiana went down 90 Gulf States utilities long on lighting this may be oxymoron with quality Texas banks that went to zero we had quality New England banks that went to zero uh these were companies have been around for 100 years 120 years saying I own good service stocks I don't have to worry I've seen a lot of people don't inherit a stock from somebody they'll say you know my mother said on her deathbed don't sell the Long Island lighting you know you always wondered you know is it she's going to heaven or hopefully where she's going to heaven you know they talk about a lily game or a vacation or game of Hearts they had or imagine talking on your deathbed about Long Island lighting and he said well you know but you get these stories all the time and I think your mother would have noticed she would have sold at 29 but she wouldn't she would have noticed this little plant that was about 6 billion over budget no one wanted it and wasn't working and uh Long Island stopped growing so maybe she would Turf to the 22 or got up at 18 she wouldn't let it go to four so just because you inherit some stock in a so-called conservative like Eastman Kodak fell 75 IBM fell 75 percent don't tell anybody you want a good service stock companies are very Dynamic I don't buy that argument here's a very dangerous one look at all the money I've lost I didn't buy it people do this all the time they say I didn't own Blockbuster I didn't own Home Depot I know Toys R Us I lay one of my books listed on two pages 13 years of ram Magellan I listed uh I think about 200 stocks a through L on the New York Stock Exchange they went up tenfold or more that I didn't own well I ramble John I had on lots of stocks I listed 200 stocks eighth oil I stopped the letter L and I didn't know any of these shares they went up tenfold or more and I was able to do okay with Magellan and people worry all the time about missing Microsoft missing Western Digital missing United Airlines they spent all their time worrying about stocks they miss you cannot lose money in a stock you don't own that's a variant what you have the only way to lose money is buy stock have it go down and sell it that's the only way I missed that one I'll catch the next one that usually does not work Toys R Us there's a lot of copycats at Toys R Us trial world it was Lionel there's copy code from Home Depot buying the next of something usually doesn't work it's a it's very bad stock has gone up I must be right stock has gone down it must be wrong I am convinced that people do this all the time they buy stock at 10 they buy a little bit of it it goes to 13 that they now say they don't know anything more about it than they knew when they bought a 10.
they have no idea what this company does it's gone 13 now they take a second mortgage in the house and buy the 13. the best thing could happen for us to stuck up directly from ten to four it's gonna go to four eventually but it goes to 13 in the middle they're convinced now they bought 100 shares of 10 not only by 20 000 or 13.
and all the fact this is talking about 10 to 13 is it went up the average movement of a stock on your stock exchange this Century between high and slow has been 50 that means the stock started the year 20. sometime during the year sold 16 sometimes during the year sold at 24 might have finished year 21 might have finished year 19.
the average range of a stock in your Stock Exchange is 50 in 12 months between its highest low so stocks go up and down a lot within a year and say this stock is going up means you're right doesn't mean a damn thing
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