저자: CathieWood · 외국인
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감세(법인세·개인 최고세율 인하)가 세수를 늘린다는 래퍼커브 논리를 제시하며, 2025년 세금 패키지가 7월 4일 전후 통과 가능성이 높아지고 있다고 주장. 최근 GDP 마이너스 성장을 정치적 압박 요인으로 언급. 비트코인 관련 직접 가격 예측은 없음.
다듬은 글
It illustrates the Laffer curve. Uh when you cut taxes, if tax rates are too high, uh then you're the revenue actually will increase. Why is that? . Cathie Wood talks market dynamics and bold future predictions. We'll dive into disruptive tech, shifting trends, and where smart money's headed. Let's hear her vision and see what's next.
Companies and individuals stop using tax shelters and uh and stop trying to avoid taxes. I didn't say evade, that's that is illegal. Uh I I I said avoid, figure out ways around the tax system. So, here you can see the history of the corporate tax rate. And that is the black line there, and you can see over time uh what has happened.
This goes back to uh the early 1900s when uh we first put in place various income tax rates. Uh and you can see um there wasn't a good recording of um tax receipts until the late '40s, but you can see how low the tax receipts were in the low '40s, uh how much uh tax rates have come down over the last 60, 70, 80 years.
And, uh, and corporate tax tax is tax receipts going to all-time highs. Uh, and that's because lower tax rates do tend to stimulate growth, and there is less tax avoidance. Uh, you can see in the last, uh, Trump term the corporate tax rate went from, uh, something like, well, I guess the the the, uh, maximum corporate tax rate went from 39% uh, and the average went from 35% to 21%.
Uh, and in Congress many people did not want that to happen because they thought that our our deficit was already out of control, and this would make it worse. As you can see, tax receipts are up from uh, from the two 2019 from roughly 200 to 500 billion dollars. Uh, and of course there was the COVID, uh, the COVID setback there, but, um, so that somewhat distorts it.
But tax re- receipts are up since we cut tax rates. And we think that the same will prove true with individual tax rates at what as well. Especially uh, and I know this is politically sensitive, but the top, uh, marginal tax rate, if that were to come down Michael Saylor stirred buzz by calling Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway the Bitcoin of the 20th century.
The comment came on the same day Buffett, now 94, announced he'll step down as CEO by year's end. After leading the company for six decades, Buffett will pass the reins to Greg Abel while remaining involved behind the scenes. Under Buffett, Berkshire achieved an incredible 20% annual return from 1965 to 2024, dwarfing the S&P 500 and turning the firm into a $1.1 trillion giant.
At Berkshire's annual meeting, Buffett shared concerns over the US fiscal deficit and hinted the company may explore other currencies if the dollar weakens. While he reaffirmed faith in the American economy, he stressed the importance of global trade and warned against policy missteps. Though Buffett has famously dismissed Bitcoin as rat poison squared, his company has indirect crypto exposure through firms like Bank of America and Nu Holdings.
Ironically, while Berkshire has avoided direct crypto investments, Bitcoin has massively outperformed it in recent years, fueling comparisons like Saylor's. A lot of very high net worth individuals would stop using tax shelters. Uh it just wouldn't be worth the legal costs and all of the complication.
Uh and so I wanted to to show this chart because the chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, which is where tax uh proposals uh start, he mentioned what has happened to the corporate tax rate as uh as a setup for what they are going to propose in this budget. Now, uh President Trump uh and and this administration generally would love to get uh a tax package and a budget put to bed by July 4th.
Uh I think that the Senate is thinking more like August. The House is thinking they can get something through in May, and I think that uh President Trump and his team are going to work aggressively to get something done uh by Independence Day. Lots of symbolism there. And so we'll see what happens. Stay tuned.
One of the the reasons we think that the odds of a tax package and a budget are increasing by July 4th is we're seeing some weakness in the economy. The GDP numbers came out this week. And we had the first negative quarter since the first quarter of 2022. And so I think the heat is on a little bit politically because we are heading for midterm elections before we know it.
The campaign season seems to be already underway, but officially we won't see serious campaigning I think until later this year and into next year. Ethereum is inching closer to a crucial price level against Bitcoin. One that the last time it was reached sparked a jaw-dropping 450% rally. Right now, the Ethereum / BTC pair sits near 0.019 BTC, but traders are eyeing the 0.016 BTC level.
That's the same zone it hit back in September 2019 before launching into a year-long surge. The setup today looks eerily similar to that historic move. An oversold RSI, years of underperformance, and Ethereum stuck under major moving averages. Back in 2019, Ethereum was reeling from a 90% drop after the ICO boom imploded.
Now, it's down over 80% from its 2021 high. Weighed down by doubts over its shift to proof-of-stake, a crowded smart contract market, and Bitcoin's growing appeal to institutions. Yet despite the skepticism, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin is doubling down. He's pitching a simplified architecture aimed at making Ethereum faster and more sustainable, on par with Bitcoin over the next 5 years.
Still, critics like Bitcoin maximalist Adam Back aren't convinced. He warns that Ethereum's growing complexity and proof-of-stake model could be its downfall, urging people to ditch Ethereum altogether. As the Ethereum/BTC chart presses against a long-standing bearish curve, all eyes are on whether this time will mirror the explosive breakout of 2019 or mark another missed opportunity. And do not forget to subscribe to Bitcoin Seller. .
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