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2008년 금융위기 당시 골드만삭스가 MBS/CDO 매각과 역방향(숏) 베팅으로 2007년 약 40억달러 이익을 내고, 은행지주회사(BHC) 전환으로 연준 지원을 받은 뒤 버핏 투자(50억달러 우선주, 연 10% 배당)로 생존했다는 과거 사례 정리. 예측 발언 없음.
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when you think of the 2008 crisis Goldman Sachs's name will always come up this investment bank not only helped fuel the crisis but it also managed to save itself from the complete collapse like layman brothers the top management at Goldman was smart enough to make course corrections at the right time before the crisis though it got them into a lot of trouble from the public and the regulating agencies at the end of the day they managed to survive the crisis so in this video we will see what exactly happened at Goldman during the 2008 crisis and how they managed to survive but before we go further let's see a little history of Goldman.
Goldman Sachs was founded in 1869 by Marcus Goldman a German immigrant it started out as a small commercial paper business which helped businesses secure short-term loans in the early 1900s the firm grew quickly and began expanding its services moving into investment banking and helping companies go public over the decades Goldman Sachs built a reputation for being one of the smartest and most aggressive investment banks on wall street it developed a strong network of influential alumni many of whom later went on to hold key positions in government and central banks some called it the Goldman due to its reach and influence by the early 2000s Goldman had become a global powerhouse the firm was known for hiring the smartest minds and giving them the freedom to take bold calculated risks but this same aggressive culture also led Goldman to make some very questionable moves during the housing boom for most of its history Goldman Sachs was a private partnership this meant the top people the partners owned the company and invested their own money in it becoming a Goldman partner was like reaching the very top of wall street it meant incredible wealth and status this system made partners very loyal who focused on the firm success but as Goldman grew huge and needed more money for its global trading business many of Goldman's partners wanted to cash out their shares so the company decided to change in 1999 Goldman Sachs became a public company their IPO raised billions of dollars giving Goldman even more firepower for trading and expanding but it also meant Goldman now had to answer to public shareholders every 3 months and constantly worry about his quarterly profits this changed the company's culture making it focus more on short-term profits when the 2000s began Goldman Sachs was led by CEO henry hank Paulson and then from 2006 it was led by Lloyd Blankfine during this period Goldman was arguably the most powerful and profitable investment bank in the world its trading desks were making record-breaking profits Goldman's role in the housing boom like many other wall street firms Goldman Sachs was heavily involved in the mortgage back securities market investors purchased these MBS complex financial products that bundled thousands of home loans as the housing market boomed Goldman created and sold billions of dollars worth of mortgage back securities and collateralized debt obligations these products were incredibly profitable and allowed the firm to make a lot of money quickly Goldman not only sold these products but they also bet against them initially the firm had a large amount of exposure to subprime mortgages through the securities it created but by 2006 some executives inside goldman began to see cracks in the housing market this is where goldman made a key move that separated them from firms like layman brothers they began reducing their exposure to mortgage back securities and started placing bets against the very housing market they had helped inflate between late 2006 and early 2007 goldman sachs quietly started to offload around $10 billion worth of toxic cdos these were these similar cos that brought down layman brothers bear sterns and almost the entire financial system goldman's move to get rid of these cos wasn't random according to internal emails and memos released during the sec investigations key executives were actively warning that the housing market was overheated and about to collapse one famous internal email from a top executive read "this market is toast." that quote was later repeatedly cited by the media and investigators after offloading goldman began aggressively shorting the housing market using credit default swaps similar to what michael bur was doing in the big shorts michael bur was shown having major conflicts with goldman sachs and other banks he accused them of not making his positions to market that is not giving him the real-time value of his credit default swaps this was not a coincidence because goldman was also taking large short positions against the housing market while they were facilitating bur's trades they were also using the same cds contracts to protect themselves and possibly to profit the delay in marking bur's positions correctly was a strategic move to buy time while goldman built their own hedges and offloaded their toxic positions during this period of late 2006 to early 2007 is when the firm pivoted aggressively they transitioned from being a net-long player in the housing market to a net short basically they were betting against the same clients they had sold the toxic cos to the abacus scandal one of the most famous co deals of goldman was the abacus scandal this was a synthetic cdo deal where goldman allowed a hedge fund pollson and company to select the underlying mortgages that pollson believed would fail pulson then shorted the cdo while goldman sold it to other investors like aca and a german bank called ikb when the mortgages underlying the cdo began to fail pollson made over $1 billion in profits while investors lost a massive amounts of money goldman didn't tell the investors that pollson had played a role in choosing the assets this led to a major sec investigation in a $550 million fine the largest penalty against a wall street firm at the time while goldman didn't admit to wrongdoing the damage to their reputation was significant as the financial system started to collapse in 2008 firms like layman brothers bear sterns and aig were either going bankrupt or required government bailouts goldman sachs was in a precarious position too but their earlier move to short the housing market gave them a crucial buffer according to reports goldman made nearly $4 billion from its short positions in 2007 this profit helped cushion the blow when the market completely tanked in 2008 however by september 2008 things had gotten so bad that even goldman sachs was at risk their stock was plummeting counterparties were nervous the whole system was grinding to a halt before the 2008 crisis goldman sachs was an investment bank meaning its primary business was to serve large institutions corporations and high- netw worth clients through activities like trading investment management underwriting securities and complex derivative deals investment banks don't deal with ordinary customers like traditional banks do they don't accept savings deposits or offer personal loans because of this they're not tightly regulated by the federal reserve instead they fall under lighter oversight which gives them flexibility to operate with higher leverage and take on more risk but this freedom comes at a cost when a financial crisis hits and credit dries up investment banks don't have a safety net they can't borrow money directly from the federal reserve like commercial banks can so when layman brothers collapsed in september 2008 and the markets seized up even a powerhouse like goldman sachs faced a serious threat how do you fund your operations when no one wants to lend and panic is spreading that's when goldman made a bold strategic decision it applied to become a bank holding company bhc so what exactly is a bhc a bank holding company is a type of corporate structure that owns or controls one or more commercial banks think of it as a parent company for a regular bank like jp morgan chase company or bank of america corporation when a company becomes a bhc it agrees to submit to strict oversight by the federal reserve including tight capital and liquidity requirements stress testing and limits on risky activities in exchange it gains access to critical support mechanisms namely the ability to borrow directly from the fed's discount window a last resort line of funding to keep the institution liquid during times of distress by converting into a bhc on september 21st 2008 goldman sachs essentially said "we are willing to give up some of our freedom to survive." this gave them access to a more stable source of funding and also reassured investors and counterparties that the fed had now stepped in as a watchdog it sent a message to the market that goldman wasn't flying solo anymore the federal reserve had its back that trust in the middle of a global panic was priceless just 2 days after becoming a bank holding company goldman sachs secured another lifeline this time from none other than warren buffett on september 23rd 2008 buffett's company birkshshire hathaway announced a $5 billion investment in goldman sachs this wasn't a charity act it was a calculated highreward bet but more importantly buffett never would have made this deal if goldman hadn't become a bank holding company why because before the collapse of layman brothers buffett was approached to invest in layman 2 and he said no at that time the reason was simple layman was highly leveraged unregulated and didn't have access to the federal reserve safety nets it was too risky and too opaque and buffett didn't trust the numbers goldman on the other hand had just voluntarily submitted itself to tighter fed regulation by becoming a bhc that gave buffett a level of confidence he knew goldman now had access to emergency funding from the fed it was a vote for stability and that's what made the investment make sense warren buffett's deal was structured in such a way that it benefited him massively he purchased 5 billion worth of preferred shares which are a special kind of stock that pay a fixed dividend in buffett's case that dividend was annually 10% meaning he would earn $500 million every year just for holding the shares now compared to the average dividend yield investors were getting in the market back then it was just 2 to 4% many companies had stopped paying dividends altogether due to the financial meltdown in a world where trust was gone and cash was king a guaranteed 10% return on $5 billion was unheard of it was essentially a highinterest loan dressed up as an investment and buffett structured it so that he got paid handsomely while taking on less risk this wasn't a bailout out of goodwill it was a classic buffett move bet on a strong brand when the world is panicking but only if the terms are heavily in your favor plus he got warrants to buy another $5 billion of goldman's common stock at just $115 per share over 5 years that means even if goldman's stock price rises in the next 5 years buffett will buy at a discounted price of $115 but with buffett what goldman really got wasn't just money it was credibility when the world's most trusted investor backs you during a financial meltdown it signals that your business is sound and worth saving the very next day goldman raised another $5 billion through a public stock offering now with investor confidence on their side the twin moves of converting into a bhc and securing buffett's investment gave goldman sachs the oxygen it needed to ride out the worst financial storm of the century while others like layman were left gasping for air in october 2008 they also received a $10 billion capital injection from the us treasury as part of the tarp troubled asset relief program so overall goldman got a total of $20 billion from various sources for liquidity and building the confidence of the investors during its critical time now you might be wondering if goldman had $820 billion worth of debt then how come only $20 billion saved them because it is not enough right the reality was goldman had $885 billion in assets and $820 billion in debt so goldman had around $65 billion in cushion on top of that it got $20 billion from various sources so it was a total of $85 billion against $820 billion in debt goldman didn't need to go to zero to collapse if just 10% of its assets went bad then their total asset value would be around $797 billion which was much less than their total debts so that would mean goldman was on the verge of bankruptcy and could be insolvent that's exactly how goldman was surviving on high risk and low margin for error while goldman was financially stabilizing its image was falling apart journalists politicians and the public began to view the firm as a symbol of everything that was wrong with wall street rolling stone famously called them a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity the fact that goldman profited while others suffered only fueled the fire there were calls for criminal charges more investigations and tighter regulations the firm was grilled before congress goldman responded by tightening its internal controls increasing transparency and agreeing to major settlements but the damage to its reputation was already done overall goldman sachs didn't just survive the 2008 financial crisis they came out of it stronger in many ways this was the situation of goldman during the 2008 crisis we have covered everything about the 2008 crisis and how michael bur made a huge profit if you want to learn more about that then subscribe and check out this playlist
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