저자: JetechFarmer · 한국인
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나스닥 급락(-1.7%, 고점 대비 -3.4%) 배경으로, 미국 실업률 하락(18.4만, 52년 최저)이 연준 테이퍼링 가속과 조기 금리인상 가능성을 높인다고 진단. VIX 42 및 CEO 내부자 매도를 고점 신호로 해석하나 세금 이슈 때문이라고 설명. 메타 메타버스 확장, 브로드컴·오라클 주주환원 긍정 평가, 아마존 이탈리아 과징금 영향은 제한적이라고 봄.
다듬은 글
Uh, hello. This is Jetech Farmer. The current market still has a lot of volatility remaining. I will predict market volatility based on released and upcoming indicators, and analyze news regarding major stocks. So, let's get started right away. Please subscribe and like. Please note that this video contains only personal opinions and should be used for reference only.
The Nasdaq showed a significant plunge, worsening by 1.7%. It is currently showing a decline of 3.4% from its peak. The biggest issue in the market yesterday was the announcement of the US unemployment rate. As you can see, it came out much lower than expected. It is even lower than pre-COVID figures.
184k is the lowest in 52 years, and since the Fed has gained justification to accelerate tapering, it means the market has approved accelerating tapering from zero. What this indicator tells us is that employment is increasing rapidly and the economy is gradually improving, but if inflationary pressure grows, the probability of an early interest rate hike by the Fed becomes increasingly higher.
Here are the major issues remaining in the market. Looking at the inflation indicators on the right, which will be released today at 10:30, and the FMC Way for next week seem to be the most important. Next week's FOMC meeting is proceeding as expected... Personally, I think that if that happens, he might become Santa's Ellie afterwards.
With the passage of the US debt ceiling hike, one negative factor has disappeared. This issue played a significant role in the similar declines in September and October, but as you can see, the market is now barely reacting. This is because everyone took it for granted that it would be resolved after having experienced it once before.
From this, we can understand that COVID-19 will likely follow this pattern as well. We have already experienced COVID-19 multiple times, and we have also encountered variant viruses multiple times. Furthermore, everyone knows that we will become "living with COVID" and that it will become like the common cold.
Therefore, we can surmise that the market will not react significantly to COVID-19 in the future. Let's check the fear index. The VIX has fallen back to 20 minutes, but fear is still being maintained in the market as the price drops. The recent VIX figure is 42. There is news that not only Musk but also famous CEOs are engaging in insider selling.
This is clearly a peak scene, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. Google co-founder Larry Page also sold his stock, and compared to 2010... It is said to be a diagnosis figure of over 50%. The Wall Street Journal stated that the reason CEOs sold their shares was because they judged that their company's stock price had reached its peak.
This is because, as U.S. inflation is expected to rise further due to Omi Crohn's disease, the U.S. central bank may implement an earlier interest rate hike than initially anticipated, which increases the probability of tech stocks falling. Forecasts suggest that an interest rate hike will be implemented next March.
However, looking at the cases of Elon Musk and others who sold their Audrey stocks, tax issues were the main factor in most cases. Since the U.S. Democratic Party is recently attempting to implement measures such as the "Third 3 of the Rich" (referring to a specific policy targeting the wealthy), CEOs are selling in advance to secure cash or reduce taxes.
While there would likely be a problem if they actually sold more than 50% of their holdings, most of the time, the volume is a small amount of less than 10%, so you probably do not need to worry too much about it. Goldman Sachs' chief strategist predicted that the semiconductor market would rise by 10% next year.
David Kosting, Goldman Sachs' chief U.S. equity strategist, stated on CNBC that day regarding inflation... Hedges stated that the best thing about the stock market is its performance and predicted that it will continue to rise next year. They reported that companies have demonstrated strong pricing power despite various difficult situations this year, with profit margins continuing to rise through the third quarter.
Rather than relying on these predictions, it seems the best approach is to consistently invest in companies that can achieve better performance and further develop their corporate value next year. Yesterday, Peloton fell 21% in the market, and tech companies also declined slightly. Tesla dropped nearly 6%.
Regarding semiconductor stocks, Nvidia fell about 4% and AMD about 5%, while most passkey stocks rose. Now, let's analyze the news regarding major stocks. First is news related to the meta platform, formerly Facebook. Today, news broke that the Metaverse Horizon World, created by Meta, has opened across North America.
North American residents aged 18 and older can experience Horizon World through Oculus VR. This shows that Meta is accelerating its moves in earnest. However, while it will be difficult to see significant net profits for the next few years due to the large investment, the Metaverse will eventually enter our daily lives.
In that case, I personally think that meta-platforms, which currently have the most SNS users and are going all-in on the metaverse, will exert a significant influence. For reference, Horizon Worlds was developed based on the ET engine. Let's briefly watch the promotional video for Horizon Worlds. Wow, hat vs on les Das, mute s fsa 2pm to a person, weekly bulletin shaking, etc., Lee Geum-ja English today, importance was, monster, dream, will be, your is 4 EM em, Wise, ants are a, count loco , must prepare, is real wer we he will give, right?
Whatever book does, bikini, hair color is available, 5, I also want to try it myself, it can't be. Next is news related to Google. Google has stated that there will be no salary increases aligned with inflation. According to MBC, Google addressed the issue of employee compensation at the Orange Meeting held on the 7th to discuss the 2012 business plan.
Google executives acknowledged employees' concerns regarding inflation but rejected wage increases. This is because the performance-based compensation budget reportedly already reflects high inflation rates and labor costs. Unlike Google, the majority of U.S. companies have recently been eager to raise wages.
Recruitment As record- breaking inflation continues, they are planning significant wage increases next year to respond to it. Amazon and Starbucks saw their stock prices fall as they anticipated a decline in net profit due to rising labor costs. Labor costs account for such a large portion of a company's earnings; however, despite this already being reflected in the stock price, Google is showing strong revenue, suggesting that labor costs will not significantly impact the company's net profit.
Broadcom's stock price is surging by over 6% following the announcement of strong earnings. As you can see, both revenue and EPS came out as earnings surprises. Furthermore, the company projected first-quarter revenue of $7.6 billion, higher than the market estimate of $7.3 billion. In addition, the company raised the dividend per share to $4.10, a 14% increase from the previous rate, and announced a $10 billion stock buyback program.
With the stock price rising while increasing both the buyback and dividends, it appears to be a stock that offers a double benefit. The dividend yield is a whopping 2.47%. In particular, companies that implement such shareholder-friendly policies provide shareholders with the resilience to weather market downturns.
In fact, Broadcom's Looking at the share buyback history, there is a record of buybacks in 2018 and 2019, which is the blue box area. Although the total number of shares fluctuated in between, it shows a 10% increase compared to 2016. Based on this, it seems that Broadcom cannot be considered all that shareholder-friendly.
Let's look at a similar stock, Qualcomm, for this reason. You can see in the data below that they have been reducing the number of shares through buybacks every year. Compared to 2016, the number of shares has decreased by a whopping 30%. Personally, I think that a company like this is a truly shareholder-friendly company.
Oracle announced better-than-expected quarterly results and is currently rising by about 1% of the full market. It recorded an earnings surprise in both revenue and 2 pence. Cloud revenue increased by a whopping 13%. They have decided to launch a $10 billion share buyback program, and the current dividend is as high as 1.44%.
The Oracle CEO stated that they expect to show a similar growth rate next year as well. I previously introduced Oracle in a video. As I mentioned, Oracle is a good stock to buy whenever a correction occurs. Oracle is truly a dividend growth stock that grows steadily. As you can see from the chart, it failed to rise during the recent Nasdaq downturn, so it was a stock I was waiting to buy, but it has already left.
It seems we need to look for "bottled stocks" like Oracle, where corporate value is steadily improving but has not yet risen. I will identify a good stock, analyze it, and provide [amount]. Amazon has been fined $1.3 billion (approximately 1.5 trillion KRW) in Italy on charges of abusing its market dominance.
This is the largest fine imposed by the Italian antitrust authorities. The fine reportedly consists of providing preferential treatment to companies using Amazon's logistics services and coercing them to use its services. Amazon stated that it would immediately appeal. Amazon explained that imposing the fine is unfair because its business model helps small and medium-sized enterprises succeed.
One analyst assessed that Italy's decision is part of a broader European trend to regulate certain large corporations, noting that this is just the tip of the iceberg and that there is a possibility that Amazon will be strongly regulated in Europe and other parts of the world as well. If Europe continues to regulate Amazon...
While there will naturally be a impact on revenue, Amazon is no longer just a simple e-commerce company. It is generating more net profit from its cloud business and has already secured the number one spot in the cloud market. Furthermore, global e-commerce sales, excluding the US and cloud revenue, account for approximately 25% of total revenue.
If we further subdivide that into Europe, the actual impact on revenue is expected to be less severe. Also, since they have stated they will appeal, the exact result has not yet been determined. Therefore, it appears that there will be no immediate shock to revenue due to this news. Please note that this is strictly my personal opinion and not an investment recommendation; please use it only as a reference. Thank you for watching my video. Please subscribe and like. woo
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