저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
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2020년 3월 코로나 급락기 인터뷰로, 전 세계 경기 둔화는 이미 진행 중이었고 코로나는 하락의 촉매일 뿐이라는 진단. 주식 시장: 주가가 일부 반등했지만 10일 만에 크게 빠진 만큼 아직 회복은 불충분하며, 테슬라는 고점 대비 33% 하락 후 10% 반등해도 여전히 20% 이상 낮다고 봄. 주식 비중이 25% 이상인 투자자는 반등을 이용해 비중을 줄이라고 권고. 시장은 비싸며 미국 대형 기술주(FANG 계열) 쏠림이 심하다고 지적. 금리·정책: 중앙은행의 인위적 저금리가 자산 가격을 왜곡하고 청년층의 저축 유인과 주택 구매 여력을 떨어뜨려 부의 불평등을 키운다고 비판. 스위스 10년 제로쿠폰 채권 사례와 오스트리아 100년 만기 채권 사례로 시장 왜곡을 설명. 부동산: 재택근무 확산으로 도심 상업용 부동산 수요가 약화되고, 외곽 지역 부동산에 선별적 기회가 있다고 봄. 원자재·귀금속: 운임지수와 산업재 원자재 약세는 경기 둔화 신호. 귀금속은 최근 급락했으며 조정이 더 갈 수 있으나, 장기적으로 중앙은행 통화 증발에 대비해 일부 보유 권장. 자산배분 예시: 주식 25%, 부동산 50%, 귀금속 25%, 채권 25%(합계 100%를 넘는 이유는 '정부 예산도 맞지 않는다'는 농담). 달러·환율: 미국 달러는 고평가로 보나, 신흥국 통화 대비로는 당분간 강세 예상. 브라질 헤알·남아공 랜드·인도 루피 약세 언급. 스위스프랑·유로·싱가포르 달러 일부 보유, 가장 좋은 통화는 금·은·백금. 미국 증시: 2009년 3월 시작된 강세장이 11년째라 성숙기이며, 2003년과 달리 지금은 고평가 구간. 장기 주식 수익률은 낮을 것으로 전망.
다듬은 글
conversation forward with Dr Mark Faber he joins in on the show to chat about what he's making off the market uh Mark High afternoon good to chat with you as always and you were one amongst the brave ones who were saying last week itself that by this Decline and it seems like at least for now you're looking at how us is spanned out Asia or for that matter India uh finally those traces of green are coming back on the screen well yes uh you're right uh stocks are up but considering how much they declined in the last 10 days and you know from at the high to the low in just 10 days Tesla has dropped 33% so if it bounces back 10% we're still down more than 20% and I think uh investors should understand I don't believe that the Corona virus is causing the selloff I think it's a catalyst for a selloff because the global economy was weakening already a long time before it occurred in other words for the last n months the economic statistics come coming out of Asia have pointed out to a meaningful slowdown in economic activity and in some cases already actually an absolute decline in many sectors in many Industries we've been going down for the last n months and uh the kind of Corona virus is the icing on the cake that really knocked markets down and the question is not of course today for investors do you buy or do you use any Rebound in markets as a selling opportunity and my take is that investors who are overweight stocks and by my standards overweight stocks is to have more than 25% of your money in equity markets for these people I would suggest use the strengths to lighten your position because the markets are not cheap by any standards you know sometimes experts tell you well after SARS the markets went up well I'm sorry to say in 2003 the NASDAQ had declined by close to 80% from the high in 2000 so the market was at a totally different juncture in the market cycle than it is today today all markets are in the sky yeah absolutely you know you make a valid point there that the texture of World Markets was very different back then and even the point that you was saying that you know Corona virus is only at best a trigger for overheated markets because even if you look at India we're pretty much in the same board where valuations are really high it's a market which is very uh restrictive 10 or 15 stocks holding up taking the indices higher so we're somewhat falling under our own weight as well uh but the point is Mark where does money find its way then if you're recommending lightening positions even for those having 20 to 25% exposure in equities where do you par your money then yes you're making a very good point uh we we need to call the central Bankers that created these artificially low interest rates where especially young people uh they are faced with the Dilemma of uh not having an incentive to save and what they want to buy a house or other Goods they're all very expensive you understand so that creates this wealth inequality which then leads to politicians like Mr Sanders in the US that have a wide following but basically they're socialists and uh specifically to your question if I were living in India and if I had an Indian passport which I don't have so I can't buy really properties in India but I think selectively and I want to explain what I mean selectively you see in the city centers commercial properties are very expensive or if you want to buy a house in the center of Mumbai or Delhi very expensive on a in a good location but the world is changing as you know already now many companies have been asking their staff to work from home to no longer come to the office because of the risk associated with the virus and uh this I think is the long-term Trend that many companies will have no more offices their employees will all be virtual or cyber employees in other words they'll work from their homes and once you work from your home you can live in the middle of nowhere you can live in the countryside where property values are still very low compared to the city centers and I think that is a trend and I think actually that this is very negative for commercial real estate prices in uh Financial Centers we you know just talk about what's happening with commodities as well what would be your view on Commodities do you think some of the Commodities the way they have collapsed are just showing that the economic activity itself will come down I think it's quite clear that uh if you look at the freight index the btic freight index if you look at the industrial Commodities if you look at the performance of uh equities that are tied to Commodities uh then the outlook for the economy is from the perspective of the market in other words the market is telling you something is not not doing well now some Commodities have been going up and some Commodities are not so sensitive to the cycle they agricultural Commodities are not so sensitive to the cycle but considering everything that has happened uh they are not performing very well but they are cheap that undoubtedly now the precious metals they were very strong until essentially three days ago until last Friday and then they also uh collapsed and I think the correction in Precious Metals could go on for some time but uh coming back to the question what would you do with your money I would say I think it's quite okay in the long run to always keep some of your money some of your funds in Precious Metals yeah abely absolutely and you know much of uh the year gone by has taught us that it makes sense to park your money in Gold but Mark if you had to make a portfolio allocation out of $100 how much would you allocate to equity for say the next three to 5 years if you are in India having an Indian passport I know you talked about uh property and property in offbeat locations but as a percentage of your portfolio how much would you allocate to real estate assets right now and how much to equities and how much the gold well first of all I I think I would not Overlook the bond market entirely because let me give you an example uh Swiss Switzerland issued a while ago 10year bonds at zero interest rates in other words it's a zero coupon Bond at a 100 okay so you can buy these bonds and for 10 years you get no interest uh you're betting essentially that interest rates go negative or that the Swiss frank becomes very strong so anyway these bonds uh yesterday they traded up to 115 in other words you bought them at 100 and now they're 115 so although they pay zero interest if you bought them today at 115 over the next 10 years you're guaranteed to lose 15% guaranteed okay but some people still buy them because maybe they think to lose 15% is not as bad as to lose 80% which investors in Swiss banks have done over the last 20 years uh so you know the the market is full of uh strange things because the market prices have been distorted by the interventions of central banks uh two years ago Austria issued 100y year bonds okay so you buy a bond for a 100 years and the interest was 2 one qu% two one quarter the bond was issued at 100 nobody wanted to buy it but they Bond went to over 200 over 200 from 100 in other words you know I would look at bonds as well because over the last 12 months in long-term us treasuries you made much more money than in stocks and so my allocation would be 25% in equities and probably around 50% in real estate State and then about 25% in precious vels and about 25% in bonds now I know it doesn't add up but no government budget adds up so I also take the Liberty to have an allocation that doesn't add up point we'll give it to him on that one right no no government math budget ever adds up right so Mark you know when we just talk about the US markets us markets for last few years have you know continuously hit new highs with the velocity of the Fall the way you said Tesla has fallen some of the other stocks large cap stocks have seen such brutal amount of selling what does it tell you about the market market cycle uh you know are we coming out of that big bull market from the US well I think this is a very good question uh which I addressed a little bit before in the sense that I said we at a different stage of the cycle than in 2003 uh in three days actually in two days the poll Market in the US which began on March 6 2009 uh with the S&P at 666 will be 11 years old the economic expansion will be in June 11 years old so we're dealing with a market that is very mature now I've written about this but now I also saw an academic study on the subject when I started to work in 1970 on Wall Street there was the beginning of a very heavy concentration of money in just a few shares we call them the n 5050 these were shares like Kodak Polaroid Sears Penny Xerox um boros digital equipment IBM and so for most of them have disappeared actually but at that time the institutions put all their money into these stocks because the saying was no matter what happens to the economy these companies will continue to grow and today we have an extreme concentration of money into a handful I wouldn't necessarily call them technology shares because some aren't but uh they are the momentum stocks these are semiconductors Google Amazon uh Apple Tesla and so forth uh normally they are included in the so-called uh New York Fang index and you can there is a simple you know and you can measure this or watch the prices of this F index every day and these stocks they have attracted the bulk of money some people will say it's because of indexation I'm not sure that I bu this argument I rather think uh we have a very narrow leadership is like you said earlier in India some stocks are very expensive because they are perceived to be high quality so they're selling at 40 50 times earnings and other stocks obviously in India and in the US are very inexpensive and you want to look for an inexpensive group around the world look at oil stocks the energy sector is very very depressed so you have this dichotomy in the market uh with some stocks being very high and some stocks being very low and uh this leads to the question you know not only how much do you put in stocks but in what kind of stocks so that debate is between the value investors the value stocks have underperformed the gross stocks for the last 10 years or so since 2009 2008 but in many instances value outperforms growth for a very long time so this these are issues that are not so easy to answer and we don't know ahead of time my impression is that the returns from stocks will be very low going forward I think in real estate the returns will also be relative ly low but as I said in selected locations uh where you can actually add some value you know you have you buy a house in the countryside somewhere and you get a few other people to also build nearby you and then you develop the infrastructure and so forth and so on you can add value uh that is more difficult with buying equities for the small investor or medium investor and I as I said I would invest some money in precious metals because I think it's inevitable in my view that the central Bankers will continue to print money and uh I think it's wrong and it's led to a lot of problems but they'll continue to do it the other thing Mark I mean would the US dollar as well appreciate as a as um opposed to Emerging Market currencies and should you have a dollar as well as some part of your portfolio yes again this is a for me a dilemma I think the US dollar is basically uh overvalued but uh for now against Emerging Market currencies it's likely to continue to appreciate as you know the Indian rupee has been uh a little bit weak recently and some other currencies at the Brazilian ra is down 10% this year as well as the uh South African rand it's also down very substantially this year I don't have the figure right in front of me but also in the order of 10% so I think that the currency aspect is important I have some money outside the US dollar in Swiss Franks and in euros and especially in Singapore dollars but for me the best currency relative to all the other currencies is essentially uh Gold Silver Platinum okay Mark what a pleasure having you on the show and uh you know getting in some interesting ideas in views from you good to speak with you as always I'm not sure it's a pleasure but thank you for the interview okay all right
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