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Hey everybody, thank you for joining in. Today we're going to look at some patterns and try to figure out exactly what's going to happen next with Bitcoin. Some very interesting things. A lot of things are kicking off and going nuts. Well, Bitcoin is lagging behind. We'll discover why and what could come next.
Exciting. Anyway, we'll see. And pattern recognition really works in investing. No doubt about that. The question is, is a an Omega candle incoming? By the way, an Omega candle is a big move on the daily like a record high move to the tune of close to $10,000. Let's see if we're going to get one of those soon in Q4 2025.
And disclaimer, not financial advice. And thank you to Patreon, too. This is from Jim Jim, Patreon member for almost a year and great value. 53-year-old female in the UK. Woohoo. Thank you, Jim. Jim, by the way, is that a whippet or a greyhound? Cute dog. Anyway, let's get into the first big piece of news.
There is a massive lag now with Global M2. Global M2 keeps going up and up and up. Global M2 has grown by over 10% since January of this year, which is wild. Yes, Bitcoin's gone up, too, but nowhere near as much when you consider the correlation. And you can see here Bitcoin has just kind of fallen off since July 1st time or July 5th or so it's down from that time frame.
So basically over the last 3 months it's gone nowhere which is shocking many people. The question is why? Why? Well, it's not from lack of investment by ETSs which we'll get to in a minute. But the whales have been dumping. Uh this is from Julio. Uh, one reason why prices may have weakened is the whales have been net sellers since the 21st of August.
They've dropped about 147,000 Bitcoin. And uh, but the problem is it is the fastest rate of dumpage of this cycle. But will they continue? No. I think, and I said before, they should be pretty close to selling out. I covered that a couple of weeks ago. Now, what's also very interesting is this. Uh this is again it's a view from um zero hedge something is soaking up a lot of liquidity.
So global M2 just went absolutely vertical. You can see there on the green line and the distance between this and Bitcoin is getting further and further away. The Bitcoin fair price per his chart is $250,000 if it is to continue tracking global M2 liquidity with 120day lead. Now, Bitcoin catching up to M2 again could bring the price to 250K, which is a lot higher than it is right now at currently.
We pull up the real-time price, refresh my trading view. Um, we are 113775 by the way. Uh, Bitcoin's up over 1500 bucks today. So, it's not bad. And we'll show some other cool charts that will give us a sign as to where things are actually going, which is very exciting. Now, gold versus Bitcoin. Gold has also been on fire, but it has tanked a little bit.
Typically, when that happens, that's when maybe some type of rotation happens. People say, you know, gold has been pretty incredible, but time to go a little bit risk off. So, we're comparing Bitcoin to Global M2. We're looking at what the whales are doing. And now we're looking at Bitcoin versus gold.
Now, if we go back to the beginning of the year, gold is up 44%. Literally, gold has had the best year ever in history. We'll look at some kaggers on that in a minute, too. Bitcoin is only up a poultry 21%. Ah, the gold bugs are having their day in the sun for the first time in 25 years. So, congratulations to them.
Bonkers. But you can see here the little tiny little yellow head is gold and it's beginning to teak downwards. And when that typically happens, that's when Bitcoin goes on a rampage. Not saying it's going to happen, but historically it has happened. And let's look at gold because people say, "Oh, gold's better than Bitcoin." Well, this is 14 years of compound annual growth rates for Bitcoin in blue, gold in red, and the S&P 500 in green.
Sorry about my color coordination was a bit weak. But if what you can look at here is if you look at the 14-year Kagger, Bitcoin is 97%. S&P 500's 13% and gold is 5%. Gold has sucked over the long term. However, it's 34% over the last 12 months, and 33% over the last 24 months, 24% over the last 3 years.
So, it has had a very good last three years, but still nowhere near what Bitcoin has done. So, I want that to be very clear. And yes, every dog has its day. Every asset can spike in any specific time frame. So, bearing that in mind, but I thought that's good perspective, too. Now, if it couldn't get any better, a fourth data point that maybe Bitcoin is ready for a pump today.
Right now, as we speak, Bitcoin trades 28% below its NASDAQ imper implied fair value of 157K. Even if the NASDAQ were to pull back modestly like 10%, Bitcoin should at least be over 150K to track historically what it has done with the NASDAQ. Those two are very closely correlated. All right. If it does fill the gap, the NASDAQ fair value of Bitcoin should be $157,000.
Absolutely wild to think of. The question is, will we get there? Not sure, but that looks like an opportunity as well. And we know as well Q4 historically is good for NASDAQ, but it's insane for Bitcoin. I covered this briefly yesterday. Over the last 12 years, Bitcoin smashes QQQ by 31.5%. across October, November, and December.
And again, QQQ does really well in Q4, too, because the tech names have their best quarters in that time frame, too. And another little cool piece from James Van Stratton, this shows you that Bitcoin bottoms early in the month. Okay, little red dots signify the monthly time frame, what the price does.
And since July 2024, Bitcoin has usually bottomed in the first 10 days of each month. We are now the 24th of September and uh actually for this month it actually did bottom a little bit earlier around 108K but since then it's been up and September has not been a rectimber at all by no stretch and we got six more days to get through six more days.
If Bitcoin is positive in September the next three months will be wild if history repeats. Everything I mentioned here is if history repeats. You know, it could be a situation where Bitcoin has a flat tire and it's stranded at the side of the road. I don't know. But it's looking good. And I actually snagged this today staring at the chart.
I was looking at it. Is 113,66.68. That's four sixes. Just so the uh the Catholics in the audience don't go wild with 666. And in Asia, it's a good luck number for prosperity. So, numbers, numbers, who cares? Anyway, let's jump into this. This is part of what's snacking on all of the Bitcoin. And I put the Bitcoin ETF flows in a monthly chart.
Thank you to Solo Value. Very so value. Sorry, very nice little chart here that gives you a much better perspective of where things have gone. And when you pull out the day-to-day noise and look at where we are, there is near constant accumulation every month with the exception of four little red dips and one big red dip.
That was Feb 2025 with the tariff tantrums. Since then, ETFs have slowly been stacking. It's mostly Black Rockck IBIT, but they're pulling in on average about 3 billion a month, about 30,000 Bitcoin per month, whereas only about 12,000 are mined every single month. That's a deficit of 18,000 Bitcoin.
So, when the whales take a little bit of money off the table for lifestyle chips, don't worry, the ETFs can absorb it. And we had a little bit of a a negative August, too. But August is always kind of a sleepy month. Everybody's on vacation and stuff. Now, what happens? How does this look when we compare to Ethereum?
And the reason I show the Ethereum chart here is because yes, I do believe Tom Lee kicked off a massive rally in Ethereum because nothing was happening for Ethereum for the whole of basically its existence, the ETH ETF until Tom Lee kicked it off. And I also believe the money flows into the Ethereum ETF took some of the wind out of the sales of the Bitcoin ETF, which is represented by that red dip here.
But now the ETH ETF is gone. Okay, nobody's buying that anymore. And the flows are back into the Bitcoin ETF. That's why we care. I'd love to know if there is correlation. It looks like there definitely is. If people aren't if people start investing in Ethereum, they probably hit the pause button on their Bitcoin investment and then they go back to it.
So, we'll see. Either way, fun to look at. And okay, if you thought the ETFs were wild, guess what's wilder? And this from River, Bitcoin surpasses US ETFs and Bitcoin holdings for the first time ever in history. Well, since since the ETFs launched in January 2024. That is wild. The firms, the treasuries, the public companies, etc.
now own 1.31 million Bitcoin versus the ETFs 1.29 million Bitcoin combined. That's a big bag. And uh considering so many Bitcoin are lost, they're growing more. And remember, we're still early for treasuries. And this is another cool chart that shows you how early war we are. 97% of institutions are not even allowed to buy Bitcoin.
Can you imagine what would happen when they are? And there's new laws coming to the United States that will allow retirement accounts to own Bitcoin as well. All of this stuff is coming. These are tailwinds that will help us into the future. Maybe into 2026. Maybe we don't have a bare market. I don't know.
But either way, I'm pretty sure we are very early. This is the we are still early with the history of Macs. And by the way, I've owned all of the Macs except for the old gold one on the left. I actually still have one of the really really second old ones in a basement somewhere. and a bunch of iMacs from all over the place.
I don't have the one with the moon base though. Um, but they are very good machines. But we are here when it comes to the adoption of Bitcoin. So don't fret if you think you're late. You're not. Not by any stretch. And Brian Armstrong came out and said, "Guess what? Bitcoin is going to a million dollars by 2030." And he said that nearly pounding his fist on the table with absolute conviction.
That's a 10x in 5 years. Okay, we know Tesla's going to 10x in 5 years. Bitcoin, if it 10xes in 5 years, I'm here for it, too. It's it's just it's wild to be in this position and just to be able to have the playbook laid out in front of you. All you have to do is sit and wait and stay healthy for the next 5 years, friends, and things will be wild.
In fact, speaking of those assets, gold, this is interesting because we go back to when Jerome Powell was doubbish in Jackson Hole on the 21st of August, I think it was. Stickers still. Thank you. 21st of August. Just to look at the performance of these different assets. Gold is up 12% but has beginning to tail off right now.
Bitcoin has been flat. Okay. Bitcoin got zero tailwind from Jerome Pal being dovish at Jackson Hole while all other assets went to the moon. Okay, big disconnect here. Bitcoin is still I consider a risk-on asset. It did not move. Gold did. And the other one there is Tesla. Tesla's up 40% since the 21st.
And in fact, it's fifth highest close, daily close ever today as well. So things are pretty wild and even more data points to show that Bitcoin is drastically lagging behind stuff is this. Okay, this is a signal of how bad fiat currencies are. And if you're not convinced of the value of Bitcoin, share this with your friends.
This is the macro shift that's happening in the G10. And the G10 rates on the 10-year government bonds are now looking like emerging market bonds. This is simplistic populism, reckless fiscal policy, fiscal dominance of central banks, bad fiscal decisions, waste and spending. And this is why real yields in the G10 are climbing towards emerging market levels.
And this process has only just begun. And it will bring massive disruption. And there will come a day when the normies realize, "Oh crap, my fiat is worthless and it's melting really fast right now. It's like an ice cube under the sun. What do I do? Where do I go? The answer is, you know, the answer.
Bitcoin. And meme of the day, my friends. You know, I would do anything for the family business. But giving up my private keys is something I simply cannot do. More of a security reminder. Don't give anybody your keys ever, no matter how AI makes them sound like somebody you actually know and trust.
Okay, that's it. Bada bing. Bobby, bada bing. That's funny. I got I got to pop this up because bada bing bada boom mafia. I think related maybe. I could be wrong. But yeah, it's a crazy world out there. And a big thank you as well to all the lovely people. TD Tesla, Sean Donley, K8, Snickers toasted, Andy Psych Experience, Wonder Twin, AR, Ron, Zeno, good to see you again.
I saw you a few minutes ago on the inside. Um, investing KO, Snickers Toasted again. Again, Vincent Jones, half Viking. Love that name. And Snickers Toasted, you're so kind. Long-term older, Mr. Mike, see you soon. Uh, Snickers Toasted, you're incredible. So, thank you so much. We put all this to good use as well.
And we have a video coming up with five years of the sponsorships we have made. The team has put it together. It's 14 minutes long and it covers literally probably a thousand groups in need. So, thank you so much everybody. It's an honor to be here every day and I'll see you all tomorrow. I hope you all learned something. Have a good night. Bye.
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