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2021년 3월 기준 기관·대형 자금의 비트코인 편입 확대(소로스 펀드, 보험사, 노르웨이 기업, 중국 기업 MY2)를 강조하고, 비트코인·이더리움 장기 상승을 낙관. 10년물 금리·인플레이션 우려로 기술주 하락이 있었으나 일시적이라 봄. 1.9조 달러 부양책이 암호화폐로 유입될 것으로 예상. EIP-1559 업그레이드와 NFT 수요가 이더리움에 호재, 카르다노 대비 이더리움 강세 언급. '0.01 BTC면 부자' 주장은 수학적으로 비현실적이라고 반박.
다듬은 글
hello everybody thank you for joining in there's a lot of stuff going on in the market right now so today i'm going to talk about bitcoin ethereum the stock markets stimulus and a whole bunch of other stuff as usual this is not financial advice it's just entertainment and things i observe in the marketplace so let's jump in and talk about the bitcoin investor update who has jumped into the fray lately and we see some interesting stuff first of all george soros this is a man that moves markets is behind the nine-day 200 million dollar fund and in addition insurance companies have already purchased at least a billion dollars worth of bitcoin we know about mass mutual late last year but apparently a whole bunch of others are in the mix this is huge the most conservative of all industries now are now putting bitcoin on the books so the underlying message there is extremely positive for bitcoin but let's jump in a little bit further raul paul is a guy i respect very much he um a while back said bitcoin will reach a million dollars by 2025 but as he goes through his motions he gets more and more bullish on bitcoin right now he believes the crypto market is not a 1.7 trillion dollar market but eventually will be a multi-hundred trillion dollar ecosystem so as he says embrace it or fight it but you owe it to yourself to understand it so people really need to have a hard look those that don't have any bags or don't hold any bitcoin they need to start looking at it hard now hypothetically if the crypto market does go to 100 trillion and i assume that bitcoin will have a 65 market share of that 100 trillion dollar market cap that means the bitcoin price is going to 3.12 million dollars which is extremely big so forget is one million by 2025 now conservatively taking his thesis and mapping it forward it could be over three million dollars of bitcoin in five to ten years anyway in treasury updates uh you guys probably heard about a lot of this already but money is just flowing in like there is no tomorrow so now we've have the europeans coming in so this is a norwegian company a bit of a conglomerate and they've decided to put not some of their treasury but all of their treasuries all of the liquid assets into bitcoin and the reason i'm sharing this is quote i love it and this is like investment advice as well is what i've been telling people for a long time bitcoin may still go to zero but it can also become the core of a new monetary architecture if so one bitcoin may be worth millions of dollars so again always think one percent chance it goes to zero 60 chance it becomes a monetary system 39 chance it becomes you know 500 000 that's a good way to think about it but there's always risks so bear that in mind now in terms of other treasuries this was also very impressive my two which is uh the first chinese company that i know of that put bitcoin on their balance sheet and they're not fearing the chinese ban that everybody is very worried about and everybody talks about and not only did they put bitcoin on their balance sheet but they also put ethereum on their balance sheet as well and they're looking to pump about a hundred million dollars of their treasuries into these two cryptos and they've already made the first investments so that's extremely bullish and it gives people comfort not to worry too much about the chinese bitcoin ban despite their plans around a central bank digital currency let's talk about the stock market for a second because i know many of you are concerned about that too first of all unfortunately our 10-year yield is spiking and oil price is also going up now the reason for this is there is now a definite expectation of rising inflation we've been talking about it for a while but now the market has realized yes it's there powell mentioned it's there so inflation is very real and this has been fueled by crazy fiscal spending coupled with the reopening of the economy because the vaccine rollouts have been very very successful and many say that we will have herd immunity by june or july of this year which is massive however this has really unsettled the fixed income markets and the market is very jerry another way of looking at the jittery market today look at all the red and you got some really big names there tesla down by 5.8 you've got nvidia down by over six and a half percent google down by four point two percent apple down by four percent amazon down again netflix down by nearly five percent so a lot of big tech names were hammered again so we're not out of the woods we didn't think we'd get out of the woods but hopefully the 10-year treasure will come back under the u.s government the fed can't afford high interest rates because they have so much debt so just bear that in mind and things will go back to normal real soon so another thing that was super interesting and a quote from kathy wood on cnbc today she expects her portfolios now to do a 25 compound annual growth rate no longer a 15 compound annual growth rate because the names are so beaten down right now and the names that she likes to look at of course include names like tesla and others so she has upped her return on some of these names which again is very bullish and what i want to stress to people out there is yes things might be beaten back beaten down but just nibble a little bit start building up some good positions and think long term don't think two weeks four weeks six weeks think one two three years five years and then these names will be the where they are today will be a distant memory so please just be patient and bear that in mind now 1.9 trillion of stimulus which basically could be signed very soon by president biden per the 2020's payout this was super interesting to dig up these numbers only sixteen percent of stimulus money was spent on food and nine percent went on groceries so 25 were spent on necessities and they're not sure of exactly how much was spent on bitcoin or crypto but many people put a lot of money into it and that brought a lot of awareness of this whole space and i think this time around when people get their 1400 stimulus checks i think they're gonna go straight to robin hood and buy crypto right away so i'm not sure how many will do that but i ran two scenarios the first one is if one percent of the stimulus goes into crypto that'll be worth about 20 billion dollars just one percent and i think that's very very possible if five percent would go in that would be a hundred billion dollars hitting crypto right now and this is going to happen over the next one to two weeks this is massive now a quick side note as well if you put your stimulus check into bitcoin back in april last year twelve hundred dollars you would have gotten 0.18 bitcoins which is worth over 9 000 today more than a 650 return and people want more of that people are not going to miss this time so i think the stimulus will be great for krypto and i see it bouncing it up in a big way now i'm going to talk about ethereum because so much goodness is happening there and as you all know very bullish in ethereum big position and uh many of you over the last couple weeks are saying no it's cardano cardano not ethereum but now ethereum is having their day in the sun for a number of reasons which i'll cover real quick first of all eip 1559 has been cleared you've heard me talk about that in the past before this will bring about a better user experience it's better for developers the gas issue which has been crippling ethereum has been solved and it's looking to launch in july 2021 again i've been saying for ages that mr buderin vitalik burun has been heads down working on this because he doesn't want to lose the game to cardano or others and i knew he would and his team and all the great developers that they would solve a lot of these simple problems well not simple problems very very complicated problems but they figured out a good way another great news as well many people expect this upgrade could cause ethereum price to skyrocket not only bring about much more adoption but because of the burning of the eath as part of the new gas fee will be deflationary it will reduce the supply and then be very bullish for price so another feather in the cap for ethereum in addition a little bit of good news kind of unrelated but related nvidia estimates that ethereum miners in q4 contributed two to six percent of q4 revenue now the reason is they are now using nvidia chips graphic chips to mine ethereum and that is great because i was very concerned that all of the bitcoin mining rigs are made by chinese chip manufacturers it's good to see american chip manufacturers getting in on the game i'm going to talk about nvidia and a potential play as well on patreon tomorrow now one thing as well just to mention the eip 1559 may have a slight impact on nvidia for their chip production because of some of the ways in which they are dealing with scalability issues but we'll dig more into that at a future date the other thing the nifty nfts non-fungible tokens all pretty much 99 98 of them run on ethereum and that's pumping ethereum as well and we all know how hot this is we know people like mark cuban can't stop talking about it and it's great it is definitely a little bit bubbly but it's great for ethereum and improves the ethereum model so more good news for ethereum and a quick graphic chart now graphic would be complete if we look at the last two weeks call it the nuclear winter of crypto people get so frustrated when crypto doesn't move up a lot in two weeks but over the last two weeks cardano is down 12 while ethereum is up 24 so just to put things in perspective when you come you just have to be patient again patience is the name of the game get behind the good names and sit and wait as we go forward okay in fun fake news this is another interesting one and everybody's talking about this today it's like okay if you want to be rich all you need is .01 bitcoins and that means you will be filthy rich i.e an investment of about 500 or 536 dollars as you speak because bitcoin just went up twelve hundred dollars since the last hour now what i did was ransom numbers is this really true is this possible and they say in 10 years well first of all wha what is filthy rich rich let's call it a million dollars to have a million dollars today a million dollars today means you would need to have 2.59 million dollars in the year 2030 and i assumed the dollar would debase by 10 percent a year over the next 10 years which means a million dollars in the future will not buy you what you need so say for example a million dollar house today that'll cost 2.6 million dollars in the year 2030 because of purchasing power and inflation so if 0.01 bitcoins makes you filthy rich in 10 years that means the bitcoin price would have to be that means if 0.01 bitcoins will make you filthy rich to generate 2.6 million dollars that means the price of a bitcoin will have to hit 259 million dollars and i don't see that happening so don't believe what you read again all the answer is in the numbers and just dig deep we live and die by the mathematics so quick conclusion uh first of all crypto is now acting like a hedge against equities probably because of stimulus and all the other good news that's hitting the market when the equities go red all the cryptos are really bumping out at least the what i call the blue chip cryptos which are ethereum and and after our two week nuclear winter everything is ramping up for a move so again as usual be patient everybody and big thank you as well to everybody on patreon great community everybody's working together and helping each other and i love sharing stuff with you things that i see and finally if you like this content hit the like and subscribe if you haven't already take care bye
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